To The Moon

Hi everyone! Here’s my long-awaited post on one of the eminent semiconductor companies:

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC)

Here’s a quick look at the daily chart. Note that the stock was trading in a rising wedge pattern (appearing to be bearish), but ultimately broke out of it, and has backtested the breakout at least once. I believe this is the second time we are backtesting the breakout. I note significant volume on the weekly candle on the first backtest, and potentially similar volume on this potential second backtest.

What could possibly affect the weekly closing candle would be the news yesterday that INTC delayed its $20bn Ohio project from 2025 to late-2026. This caused a sell-off after hours yesterday. However, my expectation is that the weakness will be bought up over the session.

The daily chart shows the formation of a possible hidden bullish divergence, which will be invalidated only if the stock forms a lower low than 41.17. It is possible RSI might drop significantly following today’s gap down open, however it is the closing RSI that will matter here.

INTC is likely trading in a descending channel setup that will likely see the 45-48 gap filled before any further downside. I’m also watching to see whether we will break out of consolidation, as it would precede a test of 52.51 (prior lower high from downtrend) and eventually 55.78 (23.6% Fib retracement).

In the long-term, I have mentioned before that INTC is headed back towards 69 and ATHs, and is essentially trading in a cup-and-handle pattern, with a completed handle setup as of 2023. I would be very careful shorting INTC long-term, as it has potential to exhibit similar price action to NVDA.

Sentiment: BUY

Summary (with Price Targets - NFA):

• Bullish cup and handle pattern with a completed handle. Near-term descending channel consolidation following a breakout of “bearish” rising wedge setup. Targeting 55.78 (23.6% Fib retracement) in the short-term and ATHs in the long-term (i.e. completion of breakout phase of a cup and handle pattern)

• Accumulation of common shares can take place around current levels. Next support would be around 40-41, and subsequently 38.07.

• Overall sector is in a secular bull market, and could remain this way for a period of time (i.e. 1-2 years). I would be careful not to short semiconductor companies for too long, as most down moves would merely be pullbacks and not corrections.

Ok, that’s it for this newsletter. See you in the next one!

$Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

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