To The Moon

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ is expected to release their earnings report on 05 Feb 2024 after market close.

Palantir Technologies is expected to show a rise in quarterly revenue for the period ending 31 Dec 2023. It s expected to report a 18.4% increase in revenue to $602.41 million from $508.62 million a year ago, according to the mean estimate from 13 analysts, based on LSEG data.

The company's guidance on 02 Nov 2023, for the period ended 31 Dec, was for revenue between $599.00 million and $603.00 million. Estimate for Palantir Technologies Inc is for earnings of 8 cents per share.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Upcoming Earnings Guidance

PLTR has issued earnings guidance for Q4 2023. Revenue estimate in the range of 599.0 M to 603.0 M, which would be a 18% increase from the same period last year.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Last Reported Earnings

PLTR last reported earnings on 02 Nov 2023 before the market opened (BMO). PLTR shares gained +17.2% the day following the earnings announcement to close at 17.48. Following its earnings release, 94 days ago, PLTR stock has drifted -2.6% lower.

From the time it announced earnings, PLTR traded in a range between 15.66 and 21.85. The last price (17.02) is closer to the lower end of range.

Estimated implied straddle for upcoming earnings is 13.7%. We might see a positive price effect as this would be another profitable quarter from Palantir. They could do much better than 8 cents earnings per share.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Post Earnings Movement

The options market overestimated PLTR stocks earnings move 42% of the time in the last 12 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±13.7% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 14.4% (in absolute terms). This shows you that PLTR tended to be more volatile than the options market predicted for the earnings stock price reaction.

This suggest that Palantir might have some price volatility and if the earnings per share is better than 8 cents, we could see a very positive upside move.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Earnings Implied Volatility Crush

PLTR's last earnings implied volatility (IV30) going into earnings was 74.7. The last time PLTR released earnings, the implied volatility dropped to 54.9, resulting in an implied vol crush of 27%. 5 days after earnings, the 30 day IV was 50.9.

• Average Implied Volatility Crush For PLTR Earnings: 21%

• Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 1 Day Before Earnings: 83.6

• Average PLTR 30 Day IV for the Day of Earnings: 66.9

• Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 5 Days After Earnings: 61.5

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Post Earnings Announcement Drift

PLTR share price has drifted down -2.6% post earnings announcement. Using the last 12 quarters data, the average drift between earnings announcements is 10.6%. The current drift represents a negative -0.1 standard deviation move.

• Current post earnings announcement drift: -2.6%

• Historical average post earnings announcement drift: 10.6%

• Historical post earnings drift standard deviation move: ±46.8%

Summary

Based on how Palantir have been winning contracts, a significant year-over-year improvement in the company’s top line is expected in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by healthy business from existing, as well as new customers, strengthening both Government and Commercial segments.

This could help to improve the revenue and make another quarter of profit. I am expecting a better than 8 cents earnings per share.

I have a position in Palantir and would hope that we could see a bullish upside move.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Palantir would be surprising us with another profitable quarter and stock price should trade bullish upside.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.