To The Moon

Looking at the tourism data of the Spring Festival, it is estimated that everyone has a good time this Spring Festival, so the market expectation next week will make us continue to be happy.

During the Spring Festival this year, it should be regarded as the calmest Spring Festival market in recent years. The trend of various varieties is generally tepid, and there is no amazing fluctuation, which means that the fluctuation will be concentrated in the post-holiday market.

During the Spring Festival, there are two biggest news highlights. One is the birth of sora, which will continue to boost the performance of AI stocks; Second, the Russian army has completely controlled the city of Avdeevka, an important defense hub in Ukraine.

The victory of this strategic place means that Russia's control over the four eastern States of Ukraine has been very stable and has achieved the purpose of Russia's strategic buffer zone, so the follow-up is likely to enter the negotiation stage. Perhaps the two-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine will end in some form, which will be a test for the future of oil prices.

First, the time inflection point of the US stock index is still valid

Before the Spring Festival, I discussed with you that a time inflection point of the US stock index will appear in February, and this time node is still valid.

The birth of Sora will boost AI stocks, but it does not mean that it can drive the overall stock index upward. At present, it is still when the Fed's interest rate cut policy will be realized that determines the operation of the stock index. If the market is convinced that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in March and the path of cutting interest rates is not as expected, the upward trend of the stock index will be under pressure.

Technically, the U.S. stock index still runs perfectly along the 20-day moving average, so this bearish index can be tracked continuously. If it falls below, it is expected that phased adjustment will come. Replenishing the gap of 4650 is still an important technical position of the U.S. stock index, so it is suggested to focus on it.

Second,

pay attention to the head and shoulder shape of US crude oil

With the advance of the war between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil has gradually entered the public's investment field of vision.

After several months of tossing, it is becoming more and more difficult for oil prices to fall below $70. In the recent wording of the Federal Reserve, the recent rise in inflation is only an understatement, which shows that the current focus of the Federal Reserve is how to cut interest rates, and inflation does not matter much at all, which is a good thing for commodity bulls.

As I said in my annual forward-looking post, this year's crude oil is focused on many varieties, so everyone should pay attention to it for a long time.

At present, crude oil has the highest success rate in the financial market in recent years. At present, the oil price is near the neck line. Once it breaks through the neck line, the short-term target price will be around 90 US dollars. Therefore, we should look at the trend of oil price in the coming week. If it is a consolidation trend in the next 2-3 days, we might as well buy call options to speculate on the pulse market of crude oil, or buy a small amount of futures for a long time. The bottom range is relatively clear, just stick to it.

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