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The Market Hasn’t Been This Hot in Decades. Is the Rally Justified?

In the midst of a major rally for U.S. stocks, some investors may be wondering if it’s too much of a good thing.The S&P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.The S&P 500 has had an extraordinary few months, any way you slice it. The index is up more than 25% from its October lows, and as Deutsche Bank Macro Strategist Henry Allen writes, “The current rally is almost unprecedented.”The index is now up 15 out of the past 17 weeks, a feat tha

The Market Hasn’t Been This Hot in Decades. Is the Rally Justified?

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Is the Rally Justified?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2414481048","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"In the midst of a major rally for U.S. stocks, some investors may be wondering if it’s too much of a good thing.The S&P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.The S&P 500 has had an extraordinary few months, any way you slice it. The index is up more than 25% from its October lows, and as Deutsche Bank Macro Strategist Henry Allen writes, “The current rally is almost unprecedented.”The index is now up 15 out of the past 17 weeks, a feat tha","content":"<html><head></head><body>In the midst of a major rally for U.S. stocks, some investors may be wondering if it’s too much of a good thing.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaf600b6e51360e451cad0cb07aa6bac\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.\" title=\"The S&amp;P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"631\"/>The S&amp;P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.The S&amp;P 500 has had an extraordinary few months, any way you slice it. The index is up more than 25% from its October lows, and as Deutsche Bank Macro Strategist Henry Allen writes, “The current rally is almost unprecedented.”The index is now up 15 out of the past 17 weeks, a feat that’s only happened one other time in the past half-century, in 1989. If it notches yet another gain this week, for 16 out of 18, it would be the first time that’s happened since 1971.It’s no secret why optimism has soared. Since the October lows, inflation has continued to cool even as economic data remains upbeat. That has allowed the Federal Reserve to get more dovish, leading to hopes of interest rate cuts to come. Treasury yields, which had weighed on equities, have dropped.However, is that really enough to warrant stocks’ surge?“If we look at the facts, I cannot help but feel as though this relentless rally has gone far beyond either actual improvement in the fundamentals and reasonable expectations of continued improvement,” writes Sevens Report Founder and President Tom Essaye.Although market expectation for interest-rate cuts in 2024 have come down from seven at the end of 2023 to four currently, no rate cuts have happened during the S&amp;P 500’s meteoric rise. Inflation has drifted lower, but isn’t at the Fed’s target.Such a massive rally—largely resting on enthusiasm about artificial intelligence and a few big tech stocks—has led to concerns that we might be in a tech stock bubble akin to the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century.On the other hand, Nvidia’s revenue and profits are quite real and they are growing at an astonishing rate. It results last week, the latest in a series of blowout quarters, is “Unprecedented. And it speaks to the power and durability of this A.I. craze,” notes Rosenberg Research President Dave Rosenberg. “Nvidia’s stellar results and positive guidance hammered home the point of how generative AI is proving to be transformative in every respect, and in ways most of us still can’t comprehend.”Rosenberg notes that the company won’t keep its near-monopoly position forever, but that it’s far ahead for the moment, and its share price doesn’t seem particularly expensive, given the company’s explosive growth. Few companies of its size have been able to maintain such growth, Rosenberg writes, but if AI bulls are right, it could continue to defeat the odds. “We are basically down to the Magnificent One—the company clearly is in a league of itself.”Deutsche’s Allen also sees the rally’s narrow breadth as a potential weak spot for the index. Last year the S&amp;P 500, which is weighted by the market valuations of companies, rose 24.2% but would have been up just 11.6% on an equal-weighted basis. That made 2023 the first time since 1998 (in the midst of the dot-com fervor) that the S&amp;P 500 outpaced its equal-weighted version by more than 10 percentage points. Year to date, the index is up 6.7% versus just 2.5% for the equal-weighted index.And while Nvidia’s valuation may be easy to justify, the S&amp;P 500 as a whole looks pricey: It is now trading at almost 22 times forward earnings, as expectations for full-year earnings per share for the index have come down from $245 to $250 in October to $243 today.As Essaye points out, a price-to-earnings ratio around that level was “previously only reserved for periods of quantitative easing and 0% rates, not quantitative tightening and 5.37% fed funds.”There’s also the potential for blowback against AI among the general public, and calls for more regulation.Fred Havemeyer, head of US AI &amp; Software Research at Macquarie, thinks “we will likely see high-profile generative AI failures in 2024, particularly as AI earns more of the public’s attention throughout the election cycle.”Of course, skeptics haven’t been right yet. The average year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 as tracked by FactSet, of 5,556, implies more than 9% upside left for the year. RBC Capital Markets has also argued that the index looks capable of supporting a valuation of 23.55 times.  There is also the possibility for a near-term pullback before gains continue.It’s hard to say that the AI boom is truly nearing a top. But it’s worth remembering ChatGPT doesn’t have all the answers—yet.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Hasn’t Been This Hot in Decades. Is the Rally Justified?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Hasn’t Been This Hot in Decades. Is the Rally Justified?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nDow Jones \n2024-02-27 16:00\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>In the midst of a major rally for U.S. stocks, some investors may be wondering if it’s too much of a good thing.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaf600b6e51360e451cad0cb07aa6bac\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.\" title=\"The S&amp;P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"631\"/>The S&amp;P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.The S&amp;P 500 has had an extraordinary few months, any way you slice it. The index is up more than 25% from its October lows, and as Deutsche Bank Macro Strategist Henry Allen writes, “The current rally is almost unprecedented.”The index is now up 15 out of the past 17 weeks, a feat that’s only happened one other time in the past half-century, in 1989. If it notches yet another gain this week, for 16 out of 18, it would be the first time that’s happened since 1971.It’s no secret why optimism has soared. Since the October lows, inflation has continued to cool even as economic data remains upbeat. That has allowed the Federal Reserve to get more dovish, leading to hopes of interest rate cuts to come. Treasury yields, which had weighed on equities, have dropped.However, is that really enough to warrant stocks’ surge?“If we look at the facts, I cannot help but feel as though this relentless rally has gone far beyond either actual improvement in the fundamentals and reasonable expectations of continued improvement,” writes Sevens Report Founder and President Tom Essaye.Although market expectation for interest-rate cuts in 2024 have come down from seven at the end of 2023 to four currently, no rate cuts have happened during the S&amp;P 500’s meteoric rise. Inflation has drifted lower, but isn’t at the Fed’s target.Such a massive rally—largely resting on enthusiasm about artificial intelligence and a few big tech stocks—has led to concerns that we might be in a tech stock bubble akin to the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century.On the other hand, Nvidia’s revenue and profits are quite real and they are growing at an astonishing rate. It results last week, the latest in a series of blowout quarters, is “Unprecedented. And it speaks to the power and durability of this A.I. craze,” notes Rosenberg Research President Dave Rosenberg. “Nvidia’s stellar results and positive guidance hammered home the point of how generative AI is proving to be transformative in every respect, and in ways most of us still can’t comprehend.”Rosenberg notes that the company won’t keep its near-monopoly position forever, but that it’s far ahead for the moment, and its share price doesn’t seem particularly expensive, given the company’s explosive growth. Few companies of its size have been able to maintain such growth, Rosenberg writes, but if AI bulls are right, it could continue to defeat the odds. “We are basically down to the Magnificent One—the company clearly is in a league of itself.”Deutsche’s Allen also sees the rally’s narrow breadth as a potential weak spot for the index. Last year the S&amp;P 500, which is weighted by the market valuations of companies, rose 24.2% but would have been up just 11.6% on an equal-weighted basis. That made 2023 the first time since 1998 (in the midst of the dot-com fervor) that the S&amp;P 500 outpaced its equal-weighted version by more than 10 percentage points. Year to date, the index is up 6.7% versus just 2.5% for the equal-weighted index.And while Nvidia’s valuation may be easy to justify, the S&amp;P 500 as a whole looks pricey: It is now trading at almost 22 times forward earnings, as expectations for full-year earnings per share for the index have come down from $245 to $250 in October to $243 today.As Essaye points out, a price-to-earnings ratio around that level was “previously only reserved for periods of quantitative easing and 0% rates, not quantitative tightening and 5.37% fed funds.”There’s also the potential for blowback against AI among the general public, and calls for more regulation.Fred Havemeyer, head of US AI &amp; Software Research at Macquarie, thinks “we will likely see high-profile generative AI failures in 2024, particularly as AI earns more of the public’s attention throughout the election cycle.”Of course, skeptics haven’t been right yet. The average year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 as tracked by FactSet, of 5,556, implies more than 9% upside left for the year. RBC Capital Markets has also argued that the index looks capable of supporting a valuation of 23.55 times.  There is also the possibility for a near-term pullback before gains continue.It’s hard to say that the AI boom is truly nearing a top. But it’s worth remembering ChatGPT doesn’t have all the answers—yet.</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","BK4141":"半导体产品"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-rise-1ca7bcf5?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2414481048","content_text":"In the midst of a major rally for U.S. stocks, some investors may be wondering if it’s too much of a good thing.The S&P 500 is up 25% since its October lows. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.The S&P 500 has had an extraordinary few months, any way you slice it. The index is up more than 25% from its October lows, and as Deutsche Bank Macro Strategist Henry Allen writes, “The current rally is almost unprecedented.”The index is now up 15 out of the past 17 weeks, a feat that’s only happened one other time in the past half-century, in 1989. If it notches yet another gain this week, for 16 out of 18, it would be the first time that’s happened since 1971.It’s no secret why optimism has soared. Since the October lows, inflation has continued to cool even as economic data remains upbeat. That has allowed the Federal Reserve to get more dovish, leading to hopes of interest rate cuts to come. Treasury yields, which had weighed on equities, have dropped.However, is that really enough to warrant stocks’ surge?“If we look at the facts, I cannot help but feel as though this relentless rally has gone far beyond either actual improvement in the fundamentals and reasonable expectations of continued improvement,” writes Sevens Report Founder and President Tom Essaye.Although market expectation for interest-rate cuts in 2024 have come down from seven at the end of 2023 to four currently, no rate cuts have happened during the S&P 500’s meteoric rise. Inflation has drifted lower, but isn’t at the Fed’s target.Such a massive rally—largely resting on enthusiasm about artificial intelligence and a few big tech stocks—has led to concerns that we might be in a tech stock bubble akin to the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century.On the other hand, Nvidia’s revenue and profits are quite real and they are growing at an astonishing rate. It results last week, the latest in a series of blowout quarters, is “Unprecedented. And it speaks to the power and durability of this A.I. craze,” notes Rosenberg Research President Dave Rosenberg. “Nvidia’s stellar results and positive guidance hammered home the point of how generative AI is proving to be transformative in every respect, and in ways most of us still can’t comprehend.”Rosenberg notes that the company won’t keep its near-monopoly position forever, but that it’s far ahead for the moment, and its share price doesn’t seem particularly expensive, given the company’s explosive growth. Few companies of its size have been able to maintain such growth, Rosenberg writes, but if AI bulls are right, it could continue to defeat the odds. “We are basically down to the Magnificent One—the company clearly is in a league of itself.”Deutsche’s Allen also sees the rally’s narrow breadth as a potential weak spot for the index. Last year the S&P 500, which is weighted by the market valuations of companies, rose 24.2% but would have been up just 11.6% on an equal-weighted basis. That made 2023 the first time since 1998 (in the midst of the dot-com fervor) that the S&P 500 outpaced its equal-weighted version by more than 10 percentage points. Year to date, the index is up 6.7% versus just 2.5% for the equal-weighted index.And while Nvidia’s valuation may be easy to justify, the S&P 500 as a whole looks pricey: It is now trading at almost 22 times forward earnings, as expectations for full-year earnings per share for the index have come down from $245 to $250 in October to $243 today.As Essaye points out, a price-to-earnings ratio around that level was “previously only reserved for periods of quantitative easing and 0% rates, not quantitative tightening and 5.37% fed funds.”There’s also the potential for blowback against AI among the general public, and calls for more regulation.Fred Havemeyer, head of US AI & Software Research at Macquarie, thinks “we will likely see high-profile generative AI failures in 2024, particularly as AI earns more of the public’s attention throughout the election cycle.”Of course, skeptics haven’t been right yet. The average year-end price target for the S&P 500 as tracked by FactSet, of 5,556, implies more than 9% upside left for the year. RBC Capital Markets has also argued that the index looks capable of supporting a valuation of 23.55 times.  There is also the possibility for a near-term pullback before gains continue.It’s hard to say that the AI boom is truly nearing a top. But it’s worth remembering ChatGPT doesn’t have all the answers—yet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}