My Watchlist [69]: ROKU... Moving Upstream Towards 118.29?
*TA as of 2/3/24
Hi everyone! Let’s look at a streaming provider next:
Roku, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU)
ROKU is trading in an expansion pattern, in somewhat of an ascending broadening wedge - note the higher highs and higher lows that are continuing to form. I notice a possible hidden bullish divergence forming that is likely to be validated next week. The likelihood of this divergence playing out is fairly high because ROKU is back at a support level of 62.15. This level has held several times over the past 2+ years or so, with a potential near-term move back to 78.61 on the cards, based on prior reactions at this level.
On the daily, there is a long-term trend forming on RSI - note the higher lows that are forming.
For ROKU, I shall also bring attention towards other indicators, as they give a better indicator of what is to come:
Notice MACD curling upwards and nearing a crossover event, and the inability of bears to force price lower to touch the lower Bollinger Band. This suggests upside mean reversion is going to take place in the coming days, minimally back towards the daily 20MA.
Either ways, I would be cautious shorting ROKU in spite of seasonal weakness, considering how it has not been running over the past few weeks. It is also worth noting that the last downtrend in August 2023 took 3 months to complete, and the current downtrend has lasted for 3 months. A reversal is coming. While the fundamental picture for ROKU appears unclear, sentiment is at max fear on ROKU.
For downside, I would look at 59.89 as the next support, if we fill the entire upside ER gap, followed by the prior higher low at 55.02.
Sentiment: BUY
Summary (with Price Targets - NFA):
Ascending broadening wedge expansion pattern with higher highs and higher lows. Forming hidden bullish divergence on the weekly chart, although this divergence is not present on the daily. Near-term should target 78.61, with a long-term target of 118.29 (and higher).
Investors can consider accumulating shares at current levels, down to 59.89 (gap fill) and 55.02 (prior higher low). A break of structure could see sub 50s, and would not be a good look for this name.
Alright, that’s all for this newsletter. Till the next one!
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