To The Moon

Fed Chair Powell Testifying to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. What To Expect

 ‌

#fedRes #interestrates

‌$S&P 500(.SPX)$  ‌‌$DJIA(.DJI)$  ‌

‌$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  ‌‌$Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$  ‌

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give a report on the state of the economy to Congress this week. He will speak to the House on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday.

Powell is expected to echo his colleagues who have said they are waiting for more evidence that inflation is sustainably falling before cutting interest rates.

Powell is also likely going to touch on the labor and housing markets, both of which are feeling the impacts of the Fed's influential interest rate remaining higher for longer.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell likely won't divulge much new information this week when he delivers his semiannual report to Congress, but that doesn't mean it won't move markets.

Powell will first testify in the House of Representatives on Wednesday and then in the Senate on Thursday to present the Fed's report on the state of the economy. Economists expect him to deliver the same message many of his colleagues have offered since their last meeting: There is no rush to cut the influential fed funds rate at this time.

Inflation is still hanging above the Federal Reserve's goal of 2% but the job market remains strong and consumer spending has bolstered the country's gross domestic product (GDP). With no obvious signs of a long-predicted recession, the Federal Reserve feels it has time to monitor inflation and ensure it is sustainably moving toward its goal before cutting interest rates.

"He will likely stick to the January FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] script but the market always seems to get something new out of these appearances, which include a lot of congressional Q&A," wrote Deutsche Bank analysts Monday.

Markets often move when Powell speaks, more so than with other Federal Reserve chairmen in the past. And with members of Congress likely taking this opportunity to press Powell on rate policy decisions, there may be an opportunity for unplanned comments to shake investors.

Powell will likely hit on wages, which have continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace than in 2022. The Federal Reserve has kept a close eye on wage growth as members have feared it could create a spiral that pushes up prices so businesses can afford to pay employees.

Another area of particular interest will likely be the housing market, which has stalled ahead of its historically busy season. Few people can afford to buy a house in this high interest rate environment, so there's less demand. However, home prices have continued to rise because the number of homes for sale is also low. Sellers are reluctant to give up an under-3% rate on 30-year mortgages that they got during the pandemic because interest costs have doubled on average, thanks in part to the Fed's actions.

"This is going to be a really interesting congressional testimony because we're kind of at an inflection point with Fed policy," Sam Millete, director of fixed income at Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a statement. "There's always the potential for some surprises which could lead to some volatility."