❖ Don't be surprised to see S&P 500 pull back from current levels: UBS
Despite recent mixed economic signals, the investment bank continues to believe the four key equity market drivers remain largely in place. These are solid growth, disinflation, a Fed pivot, and unprecedented AI investment. "Recent 'hotter' inflation data may suggest the Fed could keep rates higher for longer, but trends in the labor market support our view that the Fed is likely to start rate cuts mid-year," said UBS.
Earnings remain supportive, with fourth-quarter earnings season beating expectations and first-quarter 2024 guidance tracking in line with historical patterns.
"Although Mag 7 accounts for a substantial portion of EPS growth right now, growth expectations are starting to broaden out," added the firm. Despite the positives, UBS said that after the more than 20% rally since the October low, some sentiment and positioning indicators suggest a modest pullback in the coming months.
"Our June 2024 and December 2024 S&P 500 price targets are 5,100 and 5,200, respectively. We maintain a neutral preference for US equities in our tactical asset allocation and highlight that there may be better opportunities to add to equity positions," they concluded.
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