To The Moon

Hi everyone! Today I’ll be covering another semiconductor company:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD)

AMD is making a series of higher highs and higher lows. No bearish divergence has shown up on the chart as of yet, which suggests the general trend is still to the upside. It has entered a bear market with > 20% drawdown in the span of 2 weeks, albeit slightly under its support trendline. Hidden bullish divergence has formed on the weekly for the first time, which could be indicative of a bounce or a leg higher. However, the absence of a bearish divergence suggests the latter is more likely to occur.

On the daily chart, I can see an ascending broadening wedge expansion pattern here. AMD has slightly undercut its trendline dating back to October 2023. However, it is merely retesting its ascending channel breakout. You have several factors in play suggesting this is a false breakdown:

(1) Hidden bullish divergence on the daily with 3 lower lows on RSI but 3 higher lows in price

(2) A retracement of 78.6% of the move from 161.81 (coincidentally near the previous ATHs, thus making it a S/R flip) to 227.30 (the latest ATH)

(3) A retest of the supports between 174.40 - 176.84, which has seen significant consolidation previously

So, where is AMD headed from here?

Taking 1.61 (ATL) as the swing low and 164.46 (prior ATH) as the swing high, it suggests that the next major resistance would be at the 1.618 Fib extension at 265.10. Until then, we’re likely to continue making higher highs and higher lows without any significant drawdowns.

Sentiment: BUY

Summary (with Price Targets - NFA):

• Ascending broadening wedge with 3 legs of hidden bullish divergence, 78.6% retracement and major basing over 174-176 area, with a measured move towards the 1.618 Fib extension at 265.10.

• Investors can accumulate at current levels, given the major support around 174-176. Chart only turns bearish if we lose this 174-176 area - we’ll head down to retest prior ATHs again at 164.46 if this happens.

Alright, that’s all for this newsletter. Till next time!

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ $Intel(INTC)$

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