Tesla's share price and inventory
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ delivered about 387k vehicles and produced about 433k vehicles in 1Q24. This deliveries were well below analysts' reduced estimate. It is hard to believe FY2024 deliveries are still at the consensus of 1.98 mn (+9.5% yoy).
I have noticed that Tesla's inventory has reached a record high. Tesla added a whopping 46.6K units to inventory in Q1, despite it having been reduced production in March.
According to some famous bloggers in X, Tesla had more than 150K units on hand. I believe it's probably between 140K and 150K.
Assuming 75 selling days in 1Q, then the inventory turnover days are probably near 30 days, vs. 15-16 days one year ago. This would affect the company's operating cash flow in Q1.
Comparing the inventory data and its share price, we can see the share price reached the peak at the lowest inventory between 22Q1-22Q1. Its production continued to exceed deliveries from 22Q3, and its share price fell.
The next buying opportunity may be when sales and production are equal.
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And am thinking very hard now to sell even at loss before next earnings. Yes there is finally some positive updates on FSD but it will not help in the upcoming earnings. Better to sell and buy again after earnings at lower price. Long term I do have confidence in Tesla but will be also watching closely on new battery tech developments where chinese companies seems to be taking the lead now
looking at this and the price cut in china foresee this rally of bearish will go on till the release of the Q1 finanical report
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