A closer examination of performance charts reveals that NOBL's underperformance began in 2020, a period when S&P 500 returns were predominantly driven by Big Tech stocks. Notably, most of these tech giants, such as Alphabet and Meta, do not distribute dividends, thus excluding them from NOBL's portfolio.
NOBL primarily invests in mature, slowly-growing stocks outside the tech sector, like Target and Caterpillar. NOBL's tech exposure is a mere 3% of its portfolio, whereas consumer staples and industrials account for over 20% each.
Yet, this does not render the criterion obsolete. The DIVCON methodology proves that dividend growth can still beat the market today by looking forward.
The dominance of tech giants indicates a shift in the economy towards more intangible assets, suggesting that the Dividend Aristocrat criterion may not be as effective in the current era as it has been in the past.
Employing the Dividend Aristocrats criterion seems like a straightforward strategy for investors to acquire a portfolio of high-quality stocks, doesn't it?
The answer is both yes and no.
On one hand, these companies boast impressive track records and offer predictable future income. For instance, an investment in the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) from its inception in 2013 until March 31, 2024, would have yielded an annual return of 10.61%—a commendable performance.
On the other hand Dividend Aristocrats represent a unique segment of S&P 500 stocks that have consistently delivered increasing dividends for at least 25 years. Achieving this status is a significant accomplishment, as it demands that a company remains resilient and robust enough to generate growth amidst economic fluctuations.
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