Technical Analysis on MU
$Micron Technology(MU)$
Details:
1. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ owns 100% of the market, and was using monopoly powers to price gouge.
The price gouging has driven 40% of the market to build their own. (They would not have done it if it were simpler to buy from NVDA than to build their own.)
The monopoly ended with $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Intel(INTC)$ arriving, and their former customers can also sell the surplus.
The remaining 60% is divided 6-7 ways.
Given 10% of the current market share, that works out to $90.
It is a high estimate, because it doesn't include the loss of monopoly-pricing. It is my understanding Blackwell is already priced below monopoly-pricing, at a competitive pricing.
It is also a high estimate, because NVDA customer relations are not happy due to price gouging.
Considerations:
a. I did not include the pre-AI GPU sales, so I could be off by $100-$200. The actual value may be $190 or $290.
b. If we include the end of the monopoly price-gouging, the $90 could be further lowered to $30 or $50. Even if we assume the GPU sales would continue as normal, that means $130-$230.
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