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Pagaya: Everything Is Obvious In Hindsight (Rating Downgrade)

Data by YCharts For many days, the stock didn't move. It was only on 13 March 2024, that I, and many others, finally woke up and saw Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for what it was: A business that was hemorrhaging cash and in need of funds, rapidly. Let's delve further into PGY's pro

Pagaya: Everything Is Obvious In Hindsight (Rating Downgrade)

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":297098723987600,"tweetId":"297098723987600","gmtCreate":1713562634556,"gmtModify":1713563163507,"author":{"id":3581619790673425,"authorId":3581619790673425,"authorIdStr":"3581619790673425","name":"Heinn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e84a4067be88b1079ae9ae1ef34c09ba","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.11","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>I hope you are wrong again with this one&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>I hope you are wrong again with this one&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"I hope you are wrong again with this one","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/297098723987600","repostId":2428965146,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428965146","pubTimestamp":1713557324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428965146?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-20 04:08","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Pagaya: Everything Is Obvious In Hindsight (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428965146","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Data by YCharts For many days, the stock didn't move. It was only on 13 March 2024, that I, and many others, finally woke up and saw Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for what it was: A business that was hemorrhaging cash and in need of funds, rapidly. Let's delve further into PGY's pro","content":"<html><body><ul><li>I was initially bullish on Pagaya Technologies due to its enticing growth prospects and attractive valuation.</li><li>However, upon closer inspection, I realized that Pagaya Technologies is facing significant challenges, particularly regarding cash flow and funding.</li><li>The allure of Pagaya's narrative and financial metrics blinded me to its underlying struggles.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1152px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>designer491/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Investment Thesis</h2> <p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGY\">Pagaya Technologies Ltd.</a></b> (<span>NASDAQ:PGY</span>) is one of those stocks where everything is clear in hindsight. Several readers have now reached out to me, asking me my thoughts on PGY and whether now it's worthwhile<span> considering.</span></p> <p>In short, the answer is no. The business is in a more strenuous position than I previously realized. And I should never have asserted a bullish call on it to start with. As succinctly as possible, here's why I was wrong on PGY and why I'm downgrading the stock to Neutral.</p> <h2>Rapid Recap</h2> <p>Back in February, I was so bullish on PGY. This is what I said:</p> <blockquote><p>PGY has substantial uncertainties looming over it. But only one question needs to be answered, and that is will the business be self-sufficient on a net cash flow basis? I believe that we got our<span> answer. Early 2025, in twelve months, the vindication will arrive.</span></p></blockquote> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/18/17546952-17134252987172186.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Author's work on PGY</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Here was PGY, a stock that I was so bullish on. In fact, I was moments away from buying into the stock myself and recommending it to investors. Here I discuss the postmortem on why I got this one so wrong.</p> <h2>Let's Get Some Context</h2> <p>In the past 6 weeks, the stock market has fallen out of favor, there's a \"risk-off\" mood. Stocks go down as well as up. Indeed, no stock ever goes up in a straight line. Sometimes, stocks go down for 3 months straight, and people think that it's the end of the world. And sometimes stocks go up straight for 3 months, and people believe that stocks will never come down.</p> <p>I know from experience, that I'll look back in 6 months towards stocks in general as now being a very compelling entry point. I know that this might seem impossible to believe now. But experience tells me that this is so. The only aspect that is important toward outperformance is being selective. And PGY doesn't make my cut.</p> <p>Allow me to get more specific about Pagaya Technologies Ltd.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/18/17546952-17134271518266468.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>PGY Q4 2023</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>What you see above, is what wasn't immediately obvious to me, and to many investors. You see a red arrow, which is more than $0.5 billion of cash going out towards investments in loans and securities, with two blue arrows which are PGY's funding sources. Namely, secured borrowings and credit facilities.</p> <p>In fact, I can positively declare that this was so far from being obvious, that after PGY reported on 21 February, 2024, the stock price was largely unchanged!</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/18/saupload_b9a833b2b62473bb48ce601ad79e25a2.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>For many days, the stock didn't move.</p> <p>It was only on 13 March 2024, that I, and many others, finally woke up and saw Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for what it was: A business that was hemorrhaging cash and in need of funds, rapidly.</p> <p>Let's delve further into PGY's prospects.</p> <h2>Revenue Growth Rates That Are So Enticing</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/2/23/17546952-1708677967030971_origin.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>PGY revenue growth rates</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Many investors were eyeing up PGY's solid growth rates. We couldn't get past the absolute bargain this stock was. PGY was guiding for about 30% CAGR on the top line, and gaining tremendous market share. What wasn't there to like?</p> <p>And to confound matters further, PGY delivered to investors an alluring siren with a compelling silvered-tongue narrative, together with eye-popping attractive financial metrics. Let's turn to this next.</p> <h2>PGY Stock Valuation - Less Than 5x EBITDA</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/18/17546952-1713428515213711.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>PGY Q4 2023</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>PGY was guiding for as much as $190 million of EBITDA in 2024. Think about it. This was pricing the stock at less than 5x EBITDA at the time of the earnings report.</p> <p>Here we were, a largely undiscovered better mousetrap than Upstart (UPST). A way to figure out which loans are likely to be paid back on time, without having to take on credit risk. Oh, this was a business that was just so compelling.</p> <p>The problem, though, is that putting aside its lofty adjusted EBITDA guidance, the underlying business was far from free cash flow positive. What's more, I was so allured by its EBITDA figures, that I didn't even pay any heed to the fact that on page 5 of its shareholder report, it stated:</p> <blockquote><p>As we expand our network and product suite, we are reaching a point of sustainable profitability, setting us on a path to deliver expected adjusted EBITDA in the range of $150 million to $190 million in 2024, and <em>positive net cash flow by early 2025.</em> (Emphasis added.)</p></blockquote> <p>Here is management openly acquiescing that they were not net cash positive, despite pointing towards an entrancingly high EBITDA profile. And few investors were attentive to this reality. But rest assured, we are now.</p> <h2>The Bottom Line</h2> <div></div> <p>In hindsight, my bullish stance on Pagaya was misguided. The allure of its enticing narrative and attractive financial metrics led me astray. However, upon deeper examination, it's clear that Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is facing significant challenges, particularly in terms of cash flow and funding. The stock's valuation, once perceived as a bargain, now appears less compelling in light of its underlying financial struggles. Therefore, I'm downgrading PGY to neutral.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pagaya: Everything Is Obvious In Hindsight (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPagaya: Everything Is Obvious In Hindsight (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-20 04:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684798-pagaya-everything-is-obvious-in-hindsight-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I was initially bullish on Pagaya Technologies due to its enticing growth prospects and attractive valuation.However, upon closer inspection, I realized that Pagaya Technologies is facing significant ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684798-pagaya-everything-is-obvious-in-hindsight-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1776677805/image_1776677805.jpg","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4588":"碎股","BK4023":"应用软件","PGY":"Pagaya Technologies Ltd.","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4166":"消费信贷"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684798-pagaya-everything-is-obvious-in-hindsight-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2428965146","content_text":"I was initially bullish on Pagaya Technologies due to its enticing growth prospects and attractive valuation.However, upon closer inspection, I realized that Pagaya Technologies is facing significant challenges, particularly regarding cash flow and funding.The allure of Pagaya's narrative and financial metrics blinded me to its underlying struggles.designer491/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:PGY) is one of those stocks where everything is clear in hindsight. Several readers have now reached out to me, asking me my thoughts on PGY and whether now it's worthwhile considering. In short, the answer is no. The business is in a more strenuous position than I previously realized. And I should never have asserted a bullish call on it to start with. As succinctly as possible, here's why I was wrong on PGY and why I'm downgrading the stock to Neutral. Rapid Recap Back in February, I was so bullish on PGY. This is what I said: PGY has substantial uncertainties looming over it. But only one question needs to be answered, and that is will the business be self-sufficient on a net cash flow basis? I believe that we got our answer. Early 2025, in twelve months, the vindication will arrive. Author's work on PGY Here was PGY, a stock that I was so bullish on. In fact, I was moments away from buying into the stock myself and recommending it to investors. Here I discuss the postmortem on why I got this one so wrong. Let's Get Some Context In the past 6 weeks, the stock market has fallen out of favor, there's a \"risk-off\" mood. Stocks go down as well as up. Indeed, no stock ever goes up in a straight line. Sometimes, stocks go down for 3 months straight, and people think that it's the end of the world. And sometimes stocks go up straight for 3 months, and people believe that stocks will never come down. I know from experience, that I'll look back in 6 months towards stocks in general as now being a very compelling entry point. I know that this might seem impossible to believe now. But experience tells me that this is so. The only aspect that is important toward outperformance is being selective. And PGY doesn't make my cut. Allow me to get more specific about Pagaya Technologies Ltd. PGY Q4 2023 What you see above, is what wasn't immediately obvious to me, and to many investors. You see a red arrow, which is more than $0.5 billion of cash going out towards investments in loans and securities, with two blue arrows which are PGY's funding sources. Namely, secured borrowings and credit facilities. In fact, I can positively declare that this was so far from being obvious, that after PGY reported on 21 February, 2024, the stock price was largely unchanged! Data by YCharts For many days, the stock didn't move. It was only on 13 March 2024, that I, and many others, finally woke up and saw Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for what it was: A business that was hemorrhaging cash and in need of funds, rapidly. Let's delve further into PGY's prospects. Revenue Growth Rates That Are So Enticing PGY revenue growth rates Many investors were eyeing up PGY's solid growth rates. We couldn't get past the absolute bargain this stock was. PGY was guiding for about 30% CAGR on the top line, and gaining tremendous market share. What wasn't there to like? And to confound matters further, PGY delivered to investors an alluring siren with a compelling silvered-tongue narrative, together with eye-popping attractive financial metrics. Let's turn to this next. PGY Stock Valuation - Less Than 5x EBITDA PGY Q4 2023 PGY was guiding for as much as $190 million of EBITDA in 2024. Think about it. This was pricing the stock at less than 5x EBITDA at the time of the earnings report. Here we were, a largely undiscovered better mousetrap than Upstart (UPST). A way to figure out which loans are likely to be paid back on time, without having to take on credit risk. Oh, this was a business that was just so compelling. The problem, though, is that putting aside its lofty adjusted EBITDA guidance, the underlying business was far from free cash flow positive. What's more, I was so allured by its EBITDA figures, that I didn't even pay any heed to the fact that on page 5 of its shareholder report, it stated: As we expand our network and product suite, we are reaching a point of sustainable profitability, setting us on a path to deliver expected adjusted EBITDA in the range of $150 million to $190 million in 2024, and positive net cash flow by early 2025. (Emphasis added.) Here is management openly acquiescing that they were not net cash positive, despite pointing towards an entrancingly high EBITDA profile. And few investors were attentive to this reality. But rest assured, we are now. The Bottom Line  In hindsight, my bullish stance on Pagaya was misguided. The allure of its enticing narrative and attractive financial metrics led me astray. However, upon deeper examination, it's clear that Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is facing significant challenges, particularly in terms of cash flow and funding. The stock's valuation, once perceived as a bargain, now appears less compelling in light of its underlying financial struggles. Therefore, I'm downgrading PGY to neutral.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":32,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}