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04-22

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Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Set to Back Rate-Cut Patience

After CPI data rocked global markets, focus shifts to core PCEBOJ may hint at future rate hikes; German Ifo index dueFederal Reserve officials are about to get further confirmation that progress again

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Set to Back Rate-Cut Patience

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The core metric, which strips out energy and food, is expected to rise 0.3% from the prior month after a similar gain in February.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ea698fe56b285c1aace1862218ee94\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"426\"/></p><p>While the core PCE data may not be as strong as the consumer price index — which topped estimates and rattled markets earlier this month — Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have signaled that it’ll take longer for them to gain the necessary confidence in a downward trajectory of inflation before cutting rates.</p><p>Policymakers will observe the traditional public-speaking blackout period during the coming week, ahead of their two-day meeting that concludes May 1.</p><p>The fresh inflation numbers on Friday will be accompanied by March personal spending and income figures. Against a backdrop of healthy job growth, economists project another solid gain in household outlays for goods and services. Income growth is also forecast to accelerate.</p><p>Other data for the week include the government’s initial estimate of first-quarter growth, which probably cooled from the prior period’s robust pace but still ran above what policymakers deem is sustainable in the long run.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A composite gauge of activity at manufacturers and service providers will also be released, as well as new-home sales. Later in the week, the University of Michigan will publish its final April reading of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.</p><blockquote><h3 id=\"id_2965009118\">What Bloomberg Economics Says:</h3><p>“Real GDP likely cooled to about a 2.7% pace in 1Q following 4.2% average growth in 2H23. That’s still above the longer-run sustainable pace of 1.8%, according to FOMC projections, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. Looking forward, activity will be challenged by weakness in discretionary spending with consumers increasingly sensitive to prices amid elevated inflation.”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Set to Back Rate-Cut Patience</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Set to Back Rate-Cut Patience\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-22 11:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-20/us-rate-cuts-latest-fed-s-preferred-inflation-gauge-is-set-to-back-patience><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After CPI data rocked global markets, focus shifts to core PCEBOJ may hint at future rate hikes; German Ifo index dueFederal Reserve officials are about to get further confirmation that progress ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-20/us-rate-cuts-latest-fed-s-preferred-inflation-gauge-is-set-to-back-patience\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-20/us-rate-cuts-latest-fed-s-preferred-inflation-gauge-is-set-to-back-patience","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116245619","content_text":"After CPI data rocked global markets, focus shifts to core PCEBOJ may hint at future rate hikes; German Ifo index dueFederal Reserve officials are about to get further confirmation that progress against inflation has stalled, supporting what appears to be a shift in tone to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously anticipated.Policymakers’ preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — probably stayed elevated in March, according to data due this week.The measure is seen accelerating slightly to 2.6% on an annual basis as energy costs rise. The core metric, which strips out energy and food, is expected to rise 0.3% from the prior month after a similar gain in February.While the core PCE data may not be as strong as the consumer price index — which topped estimates and rattled markets earlier this month — Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have signaled that it’ll take longer for them to gain the necessary confidence in a downward trajectory of inflation before cutting rates.Policymakers will observe the traditional public-speaking blackout period during the coming week, ahead of their two-day meeting that concludes May 1.The fresh inflation numbers on Friday will be accompanied by March personal spending and income figures. Against a backdrop of healthy job growth, economists project another solid gain in household outlays for goods and services. Income growth is also forecast to accelerate.Other data for the week include the government’s initial estimate of first-quarter growth, which probably cooled from the prior period’s robust pace but still ran above what policymakers deem is sustainable in the long run.A composite gauge of activity at manufacturers and service providers will also be released, as well as new-home sales. Later in the week, the University of Michigan will publish its final April reading of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Real GDP likely cooled to about a 2.7% pace in 1Q following 4.2% average growth in 2H23. That’s still above the longer-run sustainable pace of 1.8%, according to FOMC projections, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. Looking forward, activity will be challenged by weakness in discretionary spending with consumers increasingly sensitive to prices amid elevated inflation.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}