To The Moon

Bitcoin halving comes and goes. Many new cryptocurrency participants either via direct buying or indirectly through newly available ETFs are hoping (praying) to see the price of bitcoin shooting higher after that.

For many of these newbies, the much anticipated bitcoin event seems to signal the next up-cycle of the price of bitcoin. However, from a chart prospective, at least in the near term, how wrong that could be.

For those who don't know, bitcoin is programmed to undergo halving every 4 years. 

This is the 4th halving event for bitcoin. Whilst it is true that mining rewards are halved after each halving event, it doesn't mean bitcoin becomes more precious. Fact is the total number of bitcoin that can be mined is fixed and known. Furthermore, most bitcoins that could be mined are already out there. Therefore, in theory, halving events change nothing to the world of bitcoin at all. These events are simply hyped to get newbies excited. With new participants, the price of bitcoin could then be taken to the next level. It is simply demand and supply. This year, however, the push for all time high was taken by the ETFs launch instead. It is not to say that bitcoin won't push higher later. Just that not now, or not so soon. It needs a lot more new participants to come in to do that. Those who wanted to but worried of getting a wallet for that purpose had already done so with the introduction of ETFs. Let me next move to the chart to see where we are in terms of price.

The price of bitcoin has tested its recent and all time high on three occasions, and on all three occasions, failed to breach the resistance. This is the first warning sign. The price of bitcoin has dipped under its 50 days MA about two weeks ago and stayed under. It is currently testing it but if it remains under 50 days MA in the near future, that's the second warning sign. To the casual observer, the price of bitcoin is fluctuating between $60k-$72k. From a chart prospective however, it has been testing both its resistance and support, with $60k being the base. With the triple top formation mentioned above in warning number one, the possibility is for the price of bitcoin to break its base and correct downwards. The target 🎯 price for this leg down is around $48k-$50k, so happens to be the next support.

Make no mistake, there will be repeated attempts to try to clear 50 days MA and the all time high. There are two forces at work, those who genuinely think they could push up the price with this "halving" event. Another group is the knowingly biggies trying to lure the small timers in to dump it on them.

If you believe in bitcoin and other cryptocurrency projects, you could choose to pick some up after the correction has taken place. IF you belong to the Cathie Wood's camp of bitcoin hitting $1.5M in 2030, it probably doesn't matter if you buy at $50k or $70k, or EVEN $100k! 

For the purpose of disclosure, I have been tracking bitcoin and Blockchain technology for some time (when it was around $5,000), however I have never been a trader, investor or speculator of cryptocurrency. More next time... [Cool]  

@CaptainTiger  @TigerStars