Read a lot of $TSLA Wall St analyst's reports last couple of days.
My observations :
Why are they so sceptical?
a. No one , with the exception of the $TSLA AI team and senior management, has any idea of the actual FSD architecture at Tesla - how many H100s and D1 Chips do they have, how much data are they gathering, and the quality of that data in terms of capturing edge cases? Similarly, no one other than Tesla has a way to quantify or model what the rate of progress over the next 3-6 months will be. So, on both of these points analysts have to either trust the company or remain sceptical. And their default setting is scepticism.
b.That regulatory approval will be a multi-year prolonged process. This is just disingenuous, because NHTSA and State regulators (California , Texas, Florida) have already considered and passed legislation / regulatory framework on autonomous vehicles. It's actually ironic that the regulators are actually waiting for the technology to catch up, since its usually the other way around.
Bottom line, once analysts / investors get passed the mental blocks on the above two points, they'll start focusing on the actual unit economics of a Robotaxi fleet....
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