To The Moon

$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ I took another look at Bilibili. Previously, they struggled with commercialization and a myriad of management issues, but the good news now is that they're truly focusing on monetization, concentrating efforts on value-added services and advertising. Essentially, the discussion revolves around how much value Bilibili's users really bring. Looking at DAU numbers, with Bilibili's 100 million DAU and average daily usage of 97 minutes, with an average age of 24, the LTV (lifetime value) calculated based on market value/DAU is currently around 300+ yuan per user, not far from iQiyi. In theory, Bilibili's UGC acquisition costs should be lower, and individual video views are shorter (averaging about 2 minutes on Bilibili), so if they truly shift to an advertising-driven model, ADLoad and normalized profit margins should be higher than with long videos. If there's a higher net profit margin expectation, the gross LTV could actually be lower. This partly explains why the stock price has stabilized around the same level as iQiyi; looking at iQiyi's FCF Yield, it's not low anymore, indicating there's a floor for comparison. The key lies in Bilibili's own commercialization process—how they increase ADLoad and CPM rates, and provide better monetization tools for content creators without relying on subsidies. This part is still unclear, but when it becomes clear, the valuation might change. Previously, XHS achieved nearly 100 billion, and iQiyi reached 30 billion; let's see where Bilibili can reach.