To The Moon

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Dry detailed analysis of a great company with some minor flaws. Cloud as mentioned could add 40 billion in revenue this year and at 10% margin return 4 billion instead of losing 4 billion which is a significant turn around. In 2-3 years Cloud could generate 60-70 billion in revenue and if margin expand to say 15% add 10 billion in profits. Cost containment is my concern as Google seems to hire at will and offers very high compensation as well as SBC which costs around 30 billion currently. This needs to be better managed. Buybacks were not highlighted but the 70 billion yearly buyback should not only continue but possibly be augmented . Currently about 300 million shares are being retired after SBC which helps.
I don’t see the value in holding 100 billion in cash and would love to see a one time 50 billion additional buyback while the stock price is at current levels. It would show managements position that the stock is undervalued , still maintain 50 billion in cash which will grow with FCF and get outstanding shares to 12 billion increasing earnings by an additional 5%
Other bets is dragging the company stock price down. You would think after 10 years that some of these projects would equate to profitability that would offset losses.
Overall this is a great company and the stock price is clearly slated to rise over time