This year is quite different. As usual, we must consider the context, which for US is (still) strongly bullish on the expectation of Fed lowering interests rates. That expectation is weakening because of mixed results from inflation data, but is still strong nonetheless. The big anomality is the track so far, with some notable gains in the semiconductor and AI; the new Bitcoin ETFs from January and possible effects of the recent halving still to realize (or priced in already in some cases) with some ETFs grace period for free management fees expiring as late late of June; the (big) bumps of some magnificent seven (Tesla approx. -40% YTD and recent Meta fall) with some probable opportunities of rebound; the strong USD appreciation that can fuel some foreign sells. In this context, I will hold a bit longer (end of year?), waiting for some interest rate cuts to push markets higher (e.g. my VUG), hold my Bitcoin ETF a bit longer (end of June? It depends on next month trend) and definetly keep my SMH for long.
Modify on 2024-05-07 19:35
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