BREAKING: Prediction markets now see a 16% chance of at least 1 interest rate HIKE in 2024.
Meanwhile, prediction markets now see a record high ~38% chance of 0 interest rate CUTS in 2024.
The base case shows just 1 rate cut in September 2024, down from 6 cuts expected just 4 months ago.
In January, odds of another rate HIKE were at just 1% as the Fed seemingly "pivoted" in December 2023.
What happened to the Fed pivot?
Needless to say, the Fed pivot has quickly disappeared.
Tomorrow, the Fed will make it clear that higher for longer policy is back and another HIKE could be possible.
The Fed still has a lot more work to do.
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