$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$
Will elevated interest rates trigger a recession in the US?
Real rates, which are rates adjusted for inflation, have risen to 2.5%, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
In just 2 years, they have increased by 8 percentage points since the -5.5% low.
Over the last 40 years, such high real rates have typically occurred prior to a recession.
Meanwhile, the market is pricing just 1 rate cut in 2024, down from 7 forecasted in January.
"Higher for longer" is weighing on the economy.
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