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Nvidia Has More Than Doubled This Year. How To Know When To Sell

This article is from the free weekly Barron's Tech email newsletter. Sign up here to get it delivered directly to your inbox.Ride On. Hi everyone. It's good to be back from my book leave. Let's tackle the question on everyone's mind while I was gone: What to do with Nvidia stock.It's been an incredible run. Nvidia is now the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 -- up 148% this year, just behind Super Micro Computer, another name that readers of this newsletter know very well.In terms of when to sell a stock, I often draw on the investing wisdom of Jeff Vinik, a one-time hedge fund manager and former portfolio manager at Fidelity. Vinik has said in prior interviews that he sells stocks when fundamentals deteriorate, valuations get high, or he finds better ideas.Laffont noted that some $100 trillion, in today's dollars, has been invested in CPU infrastructure since the PC was invented. All of that will need to be replaced with GPU-focused equipment over time. There are trillions i

Nvidia Has More Than Doubled This Year. How To Know When To Sell

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How To Know When To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448435053","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"This article is from the free weekly Barron's Tech email newsletter. Sign up here to get it delivered directly to your inbox.Ride On. Hi everyone. It's good to be back from my book leave. Let's tackle the question on everyone's mind while I was gone: What to do with Nvidia stock.It's been an incredible run. Nvidia is now the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 -- up 148% this year, just behind Super Micro Computer, another name that readers of this newsletter know very well.In terms of when to sell a stock, I often draw on the investing wisdom of Jeff Vinik, a one-time hedge fund manager and former portfolio manager at Fidelity. Vinik has said in prior interviews that he sells stocks when fundamentals deteriorate, valuations get high, or he finds better ideas.Laffont noted that some $100 trillion, in today's dollars, has been invested in CPU infrastructure since the PC was invented. All of that will need to be replaced with GPU-focused equipment over time. There are trillions i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It&#39;s been an incredible run. Nvidia is now the second-best performing stock in the S&amp;P 500 -- up 148% this year, just behind Super Micro Computer, another name that readers of this newsletter know very well.</p><p>In terms of when to sell a stock, I often draw on the investing wisdom of Jeff Vinik, a one-time hedge fund manager and former portfolio manager at Fidelity. Vinik has said in prior interviews that he sells stocks when fundamentals deteriorate, valuations get high, or he finds better ideas.</p><p>None of those things seem applicable to Nvidia today.</p><p>Over the last few months, the fundamentals behind the AI boom have only gotten better. In May, Nvidia posted eye-watering sales growth of 262% for its fiscal first quarter and earnings growth of 461% versus the prior year.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s valuation is about 35 times 2025 consensus earnings, according to FactSet. That&#39;s not crazy given that sales are forecast to grow 37% for the time period.</p><p>Meanwhile, the industry backdrop for Nvidia keeps improving. This past week, JP Morgan published survey results from 166 chief information officers, or CIOs, who are responsible for $123 billion in annual enterprise tech spending. The survey suggested that generative AI hardware spending could rise by more than 40% annually over the next three years, going from 5% of IT budgets this year to 14.5% in 2027.</p><p>PiperSandler recently issued a similar CIO report showing that nearly half of enterprises shifted from an AI testing phase to an implementation phase over the past year.</p><p>While we spend a lot of time talking about AI doomsday narratives, the real spending is focused on simpler, less controversial goals: making companies more efficient. Most of the spending on graphics processors from Nvidia is to help derive insights and analysis from the pools of unstructured data inside corporations.</p><p>Companies are reworking their computing infrastructure from a traditional model of information and file retrieval to the new generative AI approach where answers and insights are generated on demand. In a competitive landscape, companies have no choice but to make that move.</p><p>Investors have driven Nvidia higher, but they may still be under appreciating the opportunity. That was a key point from Coatue Management founder Philippe Laffont during a Bloomberg investing event last week.</p><p>Laffont noted that some $100 trillion, in today&#39;s dollars, has been invested in CPU infrastructure since the PC was invented. All of that will need to be replaced with GPU-focused equipment over time. There are trillions in spending still to come.</p><p>Coatue has been a big investor in Nvidia. The company&#39;s latest 13F filings shows a stake worth $1.25 billion, as of March 31. A Coatue spokesperson declined to provide an update on the firm&#39;s current Nvidia holdings.</p><p>Even Nvidia bulls may be asking the question of whether it&#39;s time to trim their positions in the stock. This is the hardest decision in investing.</p><p>Here too, Laffont has some advice. He cautioned against being &#34;too cute.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Stan Druckenmiller once told me he made 120% of his money in obvious ideas, and he lost 20% everywhere else. I feel that&#39;s very true,&#34; Laffont said. &#34;By far the biggest mistakes that I&#39;ve made is selling stock early.&#34;</p><p>Laffont said that Coatue missed out on $20 billion in additional gains in Tencent, because it sold stock too soon two decades ago.</p><p>To be sure, the opportunity in AI is no longer a secret. But that doesn&#39;t mean the stock gains are over. Laffont, for one, remains bullish. He points to Apple&#39;s huge decade of gains, even as the iPhone dominated the conversation in tech.</p><p>A similar multiyear opportunity lies ahead for Nvidia. Until the facts change or valuations get crazy, it&#39;s best not to get too cute.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Has More Than Doubled This Year. 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How To Know When To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-04 11:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>It&#39;s been an incredible run. Nvidia is now the second-best performing stock in the S&amp;P 500 -- up 148% this year, just behind Super Micro Computer, another name that readers of this newsletter know very well.</p><p>In terms of when to sell a stock, I often draw on the investing wisdom of Jeff Vinik, a one-time hedge fund manager and former portfolio manager at Fidelity. Vinik has said in prior interviews that he sells stocks when fundamentals deteriorate, valuations get high, or he finds better ideas.</p><p>None of those things seem applicable to Nvidia today.</p><p>Over the last few months, the fundamentals behind the AI boom have only gotten better. In May, Nvidia posted eye-watering sales growth of 262% for its fiscal first quarter and earnings growth of 461% versus the prior year.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s valuation is about 35 times 2025 consensus earnings, according to FactSet. That&#39;s not crazy given that sales are forecast to grow 37% for the time period.</p><p>Meanwhile, the industry backdrop for Nvidia keeps improving. This past week, JP Morgan published survey results from 166 chief information officers, or CIOs, who are responsible for $123 billion in annual enterprise tech spending. The survey suggested that generative AI hardware spending could rise by more than 40% annually over the next three years, going from 5% of IT budgets this year to 14.5% in 2027.</p><p>PiperSandler recently issued a similar CIO report showing that nearly half of enterprises shifted from an AI testing phase to an implementation phase over the past year.</p><p>While we spend a lot of time talking about AI doomsday narratives, the real spending is focused on simpler, less controversial goals: making companies more efficient. Most of the spending on graphics processors from Nvidia is to help derive insights and analysis from the pools of unstructured data inside corporations.</p><p>Companies are reworking their computing infrastructure from a traditional model of information and file retrieval to the new generative AI approach where answers and insights are generated on demand. In a competitive landscape, companies have no choice but to make that move.</p><p>Investors have driven Nvidia higher, but they may still be under appreciating the opportunity. That was a key point from Coatue Management founder Philippe Laffont during a Bloomberg investing event last week.</p><p>Laffont noted that some $100 trillion, in today&#39;s dollars, has been invested in CPU infrastructure since the PC was invented. All of that will need to be replaced with GPU-focused equipment over time. There are trillions in spending still to come.</p><p>Coatue has been a big investor in Nvidia. The company&#39;s latest 13F filings shows a stake worth $1.25 billion, as of March 31. A Coatue spokesperson declined to provide an update on the firm&#39;s current Nvidia holdings.</p><p>Even Nvidia bulls may be asking the question of whether it&#39;s time to trim their positions in the stock. This is the hardest decision in investing.</p><p>Here too, Laffont has some advice. He cautioned against being &#34;too cute.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Stan Druckenmiller once told me he made 120% of his money in obvious ideas, and he lost 20% everywhere else. I feel that&#39;s very true,&#34; Laffont said. &#34;By far the biggest mistakes that I&#39;ve made is selling stock early.&#34;</p><p>Laffont said that Coatue missed out on $20 billion in additional gains in Tencent, because it sold stock too soon two decades ago.</p><p>To be sure, the opportunity in AI is no longer a secret. But that doesn&#39;t mean the stock gains are over. Laffont, for one, remains bullish. He points to Apple&#39;s huge decade of gains, even as the iPhone dominated the conversation in tech.</p><p>A similar multiyear opportunity lies ahead for Nvidia. Until the facts change or valuations get crazy, it&#39;s best not to get too cute.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4529":"IDC概念","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4515":"5G概念","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2448435053","content_text":"It's been an incredible run. Nvidia is now the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 -- up 148% this year, just behind Super Micro Computer, another name that readers of this newsletter know very well.In terms of when to sell a stock, I often draw on the investing wisdom of Jeff Vinik, a one-time hedge fund manager and former portfolio manager at Fidelity. Vinik has said in prior interviews that he sells stocks when fundamentals deteriorate, valuations get high, or he finds better ideas.None of those things seem applicable to Nvidia today.Over the last few months, the fundamentals behind the AI boom have only gotten better. In May, Nvidia posted eye-watering sales growth of 262% for its fiscal first quarter and earnings growth of 461% versus the prior year.Nvidia's valuation is about 35 times 2025 consensus earnings, according to FactSet. That's not crazy given that sales are forecast to grow 37% for the time period.Meanwhile, the industry backdrop for Nvidia keeps improving. This past week, JP Morgan published survey results from 166 chief information officers, or CIOs, who are responsible for $123 billion in annual enterprise tech spending. The survey suggested that generative AI hardware spending could rise by more than 40% annually over the next three years, going from 5% of IT budgets this year to 14.5% in 2027.PiperSandler recently issued a similar CIO report showing that nearly half of enterprises shifted from an AI testing phase to an implementation phase over the past year.While we spend a lot of time talking about AI doomsday narratives, the real spending is focused on simpler, less controversial goals: making companies more efficient. Most of the spending on graphics processors from Nvidia is to help derive insights and analysis from the pools of unstructured data inside corporations.Companies are reworking their computing infrastructure from a traditional model of information and file retrieval to the new generative AI approach where answers and insights are generated on demand. In a competitive landscape, companies have no choice but to make that move.Investors have driven Nvidia higher, but they may still be under appreciating the opportunity. That was a key point from Coatue Management founder Philippe Laffont during a Bloomberg investing event last week.Laffont noted that some $100 trillion, in today's dollars, has been invested in CPU infrastructure since the PC was invented. All of that will need to be replaced with GPU-focused equipment over time. There are trillions in spending still to come.Coatue has been a big investor in Nvidia. The company's latest 13F filings shows a stake worth $1.25 billion, as of March 31. A Coatue spokesperson declined to provide an update on the firm's current Nvidia holdings.Even Nvidia bulls may be asking the question of whether it's time to trim their positions in the stock. This is the hardest decision in investing.Here too, Laffont has some advice. He cautioned against being \"too cute.\"\"Stan Druckenmiller once told me he made 120% of his money in obvious ideas, and he lost 20% everywhere else. I feel that's very true,\" Laffont said. \"By far the biggest mistakes that I've made is selling stock early.\"Laffont said that Coatue missed out on $20 billion in additional gains in Tencent, because it sold stock too soon two decades ago.To be sure, the opportunity in AI is no longer a secret. But that doesn't mean the stock gains are over. Laffont, for one, remains bullish. He points to Apple's huge decade of gains, even as the iPhone dominated the conversation in tech.A similar multiyear opportunity lies ahead for Nvidia. Until the facts change or valuations get crazy, it's best not to get too cute.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}