My Watchlist [123]: ASML... The Situation.

Hi everyone. Today I’ll be looking at another semiconductor stock for the first time:

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML)

ASML has been trading in an ascending channel (in green) since 2020 and a marked up ascending channel (in blue) since 2023. The most notable sign of bearishness in ASML’s chart is that:

  1. It has hit the top of the green channel for the first time since the 2021 high;

  2. It has broken down from the secondary ascending channel for the first time with a bearish engulfing reversal candle (*requires weekly close for confirmation);

  3. Bearish divergences have shown up on the RSI and Stochastic RSI with a bearish crossover occurring on the latter, suggesting the start of a move lower

In the short term, I am expecting continuation towards the 878-888.67 island gap. If there is any attempt at a bounce to reset the Stochastic oscillator on the daily, I am expecting a rejection at, or slightly above 979.99. This level is crucial as ASML’s prior ATHs in 2021 sits at 895.93, but it ultimately rejected the 878-888.67 area at that point time. A successful retest of this level could negate the bearish patterns on this stock.

However, structural breakdowns, particularly for trends that have held for at least a year or more, usually give rise to larger moves lower. I see ASML retracing back towards the 759.47-765.53 area in the coming months to retest its prior resistance between Jul-Dec’23.

Unless ASML reclaims its secondary channel or breaks out above the main channel, I am not bullish on it. The bears have drawn blood by creating a mega-sized island gap at 979.99-1,060.74.

In light of the unfavourable technical setup on ASML, I am initiating coverage on it with a SELL sentiment.

Sentiment: SELL (New)

Summary (with Price Targets - NFA):

  • Broke down from secondary ascending channel (in blue) with a bearish divergence setup

  • Measured move should be to retest prior highs at 759.47-765.53 area

  • Invalidation only happens if ASML can fill its bearish island gap at 979.99-1,060.74, reclaim its secondary channel, or break above its main ascending channel (in green)

@TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerEvents @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ $Intel(INTC)$

# Pullback Coming! Will You Shop on Sale?

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  • AyKing
    ·07-19
    TOP
    Great analysis. If this goes down, will it affect other related stocks like NVDA? 🤔 standby my capital to scoop up bargains. And if NVDA goes down, I think SPY might go down too.
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    • TBI
      Yes, it should. Check out my Substack for more updates - https://tbitrades.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profile
      07-20
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    • AyKingReplying toTBI
      👍😊ok.
      for long term investment, I will probably take action when I see the price is at good levels.
      07-19
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    • TBI
      I would argue that within the semiconductor space we might see decoupling where some stocks might move inversely depending on their relative charts.. maybe long term move is higher but each stock is at a different stage of the process.

      some pull back, some rip, some dump

      07-19
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  • NinaEmmie
    ·07-19
    TOP
    Interesting analysis on ASML, especially with the bearish signals and the potential island gap.
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    • TBI
      Yep. Thanks! Can check out my Substack if you're interested - https://tbitrades.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profile
      07-20
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  • PhoenixWhitman
    ·07-19
    TOP
    Nice analysis on ASML, great insights! [Great]
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    • TBI
      Thanks! If you like my content do check out my Substack - https://tbitrades.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profile
      07-20
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  • Barcode
    ·07-21


    Looks like ASML is showing some bearish signals. Interesting breakdown from the secondary ascending channel. Keeping an eye on that 759-765 area for a retest. What do you all think?
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  • PTOL
    ·07-19

    FT wrote in-depth article about ASML and it very much confirmed our bear case.

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  • Don’t rush, just sit tight and enjoy the show.

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