Grim Future of Stock
Guys, please be careful. Recent weeks, there are several economic indicators I noticed that may affect the market.
So I start with bullish:
- Next stimulus package will be 1400 USD, this may increase the bullish strength for a while but at the current market price and low optimism stimulus won't drive the market crazy like it was at the 2020. - Fairly bulish
- People are buying the blue chip tech stock. As we know, that there are on-going tech stock sell off, but smart money and institutional investor will buy any tech company with strong fundamental. Fairy bulish
Bearish:
- 10 YR US Bond yield rate is rising. Indicates that there will be an inflation. Market is wary of government bond performance.
- Buffet Indicator, currently we are trading at a high average PE ratio and high Market Cap to GDP, indicates things are overpriced.
- There are a massive dollar shortage. The pandemic halt the global economic trade, this reduces dollar supply to overseas bank and company reduced. To run its business, some company and bank have to liquidate their stock/asset position in USD, causing a sell-off.
- The mortgage market is distressed, there are housing bubble. Strong housing price, strong profit for mortgage financier, but there is high-record of vacancy everywhere.
I find today's market is very risky and there is a huge chance that there will be a correction. We never know when the crash is going to happen, it could happen anytime in this year. Please hedge your position. I wish everyone fortune.
Don't blindly believe in anything I say, please do your homework check it by yourself. Keyword: 10 YR US Bond Rate, Buffet Indicator, Dollar Shortage, Mortgage Market Rate, Stimulus, Tech Sell-Off
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