To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ will be reporting the second-quarter earnings result on Tuesday (23 July) after the market close.

Market anticipate that Tesla should have no issue in reporting higher earnings than what analyst has estimated or forecasted. But Tesla would need more data or news to lift the stock from its current stock price.

The consensus for Tesla second-quarter earnings per share is at 61 cents from revenue of $24.5 billion. This is lower than the 91 cents of EPS and revenue of $24.9 billion.

Tesla Lower Sales Volume and Price -> Expected Lower EPS

The lower EPS expected does not come as a surprise because Tesla have been on lower sales volume and prices. Tesla has reported to deliver about 444,000 vehicles in the second quarter at an average realized price of $42,500.

It is lower that the 466,000 vehicles shipped a year ago with an average price of about $44,000.

Look Beyond Delivery Numbers

Actually if we looked deeper, the consensus earning per share is estimated based on Tesla would only deliver about 420,000 vehicles, making it somewhat out of date.

Tesla's deliveries increased significantly in the second quarter. At 443,956 vehicles, deliveries were 14.8 per cent higher than in the previous quarter. Tesla also exceeded analysts' expectations with this result. On average, they had expected around 438,000 vehicles to be delivered.

So what would be more important to focus would be the battery storage. Tesla has sold much more battery storage than anyone expected. Tesla deployed 9.4 gigawatt hours of battery storage in the quarter—a record.

This is much higher than the 4.1 gigawatt hours in the first quarter of 2024. The 9.4 gigawatt hours represent roughly enough electricity to power 10,000 American homes for a year.

What To Look Out For This Earnings

If you have been following Tesla stock since last week and yesterday (22 July), it has reflected that we could be expecting better news. The stock price increase could be also due to investors sentiment improving, so when we looked at Tesla stock price movement during earning, we should look beyond the quarterly numbers.

What I would like to find out is Tesla CEO Musk comments on Tesla can increase its sales volume in 2024 as it has delivered about 1.8 million cars in 2023. So far, in the first half of 2024, they have delivered about 831,000 vehicles which is down about 7% year over year.

The plan on how Tesla would pick up the pace to beat 2023 figure would be something I will be looking forward.

Analyst Price Target Forecast

Based on 35 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Tesla in the last 3 months. The average price target is $193.18 with a high forecast of $310.00 and a low forecast of $22.86. The average price target represents a -23.19% change from the last price of $251.51.

With Tesla gaining more than 5% in yesterday (22 July) trading, it looks like Tesla would be rolling out some positive news during the earnings report.

But we will need to see if Tesla is giving a better increase of its share price because year-to-date, we are seeing a less than 2% gain.

Tesla (TSLA) Year-To-Date Returns A Concern

Tesla have not been giving a good year-to-date return in 2024, despite the recent stock price trending upside, I believe Tesla would need to show more strength.

Will this upcoming earning report make a difference? Can we see a rally from Tesla after its earning result?

Technical (MACD and KDJ) No Clear Sign Of Bullish Reversal

Though we have seen Tesla making some impressive upside move recently, but from the technical using MACD and KDJ, there is no signal that Tesla is forming a reversal to the bullish side.

So if the earnings guidance or outlook turned out to imply some challenges to Tesla delivery number for 2024 and also the battery storage, then we might see Tesla making a downside.

Investors could be on a wait-and-see attitude to see how the price action turned out for Tesla trading today (23 July).

I will be adopting a monitoring attitude to see how the market is comprehending the comments by Tesla CEO when the earnings result is out.

Summary

While market is expecting to beat the EPS and revenue earnings as the actual delivery number is better than what the analyst used to forecast the earning per share.

What I would be focusing would be the comments by Tesla CEO on plans to improve the numbers to match or better the one they have in 2023.

Tesla might experiencing some confidence from investors as we can see that it has gained 0.58% in 24-hour trading.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Tesla would be able to produce much higher EPS and also plan to improve the delivery for second half of 2024?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.