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Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash

It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low - like now. The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the "U.S. Crash Confidence Index," was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, "What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by "rare, extreme events" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia

Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash

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The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-23 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","OEX":"标普100","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","AVGO":"博通","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453076978","content_text":"The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia $(NVDA)$, Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ and Broadcom $(AVGO)$.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.It's worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&P 500's SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicatorThe U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research. Entitled \"Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,\" the study began circulating in June in academic circles.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.Emotions and beliefsThe probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500.The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors' emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it's 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it's a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}