[Morning must-read] There are a lot of news this weekend, and there are many major macro events this week. Let's take a look at what may affect the market.
Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 1%. Trump announced at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference that if he could return to the White House, he would list Bitcoin as a U.S. strategic reserve asset. During his speech, the price of Bitcoin staged a V-shaped reversal and once stood above the $69,000 mark.
The U.S. PCE price index for June was released, which was basically in line with expectations. The expectation of a rate cut in September remained unchanged. Let's talk about the important macro events this week.
On August 1, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 97.4%, but the probability of a rate cut in September is close to 100%. At the same time, this week the United States will release indicators such as the June non-agricultural and ISM manufacturing indexes to reflect the latest economic conditions. In addition, the earnings season has entered a critical period, and star technology stocks such as Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft will release their results.
In addition, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will hold interest rate meetings this week. I am particularly concerned about the actions of the Bank of Japan. Judging from current market expectations, the probability of Japan raising interest rates is around 50%. Due to the uncertainty of expectations, Japan's decision will greatly affect the trend of the Nikkei and the yen. This may be an opportunity.
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