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I'll continue to buy the dips.

Super Micro Computer: Disaster Earnings, A Massive Opportunity

This is undoubtedly the biggest question we have to answer after these earnings. Why are margins down so much?Our Q4 operating margin is 7.8%, which is lower than what we expected due to the higher mix of hyperscale datacenter business and expedited costs of our DLC liquid cooling components in June and September quarters.Source: Earnings Call.Management points towards a change in revenue mix and, more importantly, the expedited costs of components. This should actually ease now as the company i

Super Micro Computer: Disaster Earnings, A Massive Opportunity

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Why are margins down so much?Our Q4 operating margin is 7.8%, which is lower than what we expected due to the higher mix of hyperscale datacenter business and expedited costs of our DLC liquid cooling components in June and September quarters.Source: Earnings Call.Management points towards a change in revenue mix and, more importantly, the expedited costs of components. This should actually ease now as the company i","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported weak earnings, causing a 20% drop in share price, but revenue growth remains strong.</p></li><li><p>Margins decreased due to higher expenses, but the company expects margins to improve with higher volume sales and cost-efficiency measures.</p></li><li><p>Risks include dependency on Nvidia chips and a potential slowdown in AI spending, but the stock is undervalued and offers good return potential.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f26be32a56602b728fbecd2d801459d6\" alt=\"J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images\" title=\"J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\"/><span>J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_851886950\">Thesis Summary</h2><p><strong>Super Micro Computer, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:SMCI) reported weak fiscal Q4 earnings on Tuesday, the 6th of August, leading to a 20% drop in its share price.</p><p>While the company did not meet investors&#39; lofty goals, and it certainly faces challenges ahead, the sell-off seems to be overdone.</p><p>Looking at revenue and earnings estimates, the company now seems undervalued, with substantial upside potential.</p><p>If the AI trade still has legs, these are by far the longest.</p><p>I last rated SMCI a buy, after the stock had consolidated around $700. We have now broken support after these disappointing earnings. Nonetheless, I am upgrading to a Strong Buy as I feel the market is overreacting to what, I believe, is just a temporary complication.</p><h2 id=\"id_2584100356\">Q2 Earnings</h2><p>SMCI delivered results below expectations, hitting revenue estimates but missing earnings. While revenue is still growing at a fast pace, as expected, the profit margin has contracted, and this worries investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd12a0051bfa4c561cce905a64062772\" alt=\"SMCI Revenue (Investor slides)\" title=\"SMCI Revenue (Investor slides)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"694\"/><span>SMCI Revenue (Investor slides)</span></p><p>The company saw revenues increase 143% YoY and 38% QoQ. As we can see below, the highest growing subsegment was OEM Appliances &amp; Large DC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a741a4ec4b17573da6716a9fa4f9c676\" alt=\"SMCI Revenue Mix (Investor slides)\" title=\"SMCI Revenue Mix (Investor slides)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"707\"/><span>SMCI Revenue Mix (Investor slides)</span></p><p>And though the stock sold off, guidance for the next quarter was still strong.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/caf447557ee44a28c7354b03d245521d\" alt=\"CEO takeaways (Investor slides)\" title=\"CEO takeaways (Investor slides)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"683\"/><span>CEO takeaways (Investor slides)</span></p><p>The company expects revenue of between $6-%7 billion. This is a surprisingly big range. The company also expects non-GAAP net income per diluted share of between $6.69 and $8.27. The lower range of the guidance would have earnings close to flat QoQ, and this is a big concern for investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6cce52dff89bc6cbac40758276f012d4\" alt=\"Operating expenses and margin (Investor slides)\" title=\"Operating expenses and margin (Investor slides)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\"/><span>Operating expenses and margin (Investor slides)</span></p><p>Despite strong revenue growth, the company has seen a meaningful reduction in operating margins. This can be attributed to higher OPEX as the company has invested more heavily in R&amp;D.</p><h2 id=\"id_814047024\">What&#39;s going on with profitability?</h2><p>This is undoubtedly the biggest question we have to answer after these earnings. Why are margins down so much? And will they recover going forward?</p><blockquote><p>Our Q4 operating margin is 7.8%, which is lower than what we expected due to the higher mix of hyperscale datacenter business and expedited costs of our DLC liquid cooling components in June and September quarters.</p></blockquote><p>Source: Earnings Call.</p><p>Management points towards a change in revenue mix and, more importantly, the expedited costs of components. This should actually ease now as the company is well stocked in terms of components.</p><blockquote><p>Again, we anticipate that the short-term margin pressure will ease and return to normal ranges before the end of fiscal 2025, especially when our DLC liquid cooling and Datacenter Building <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a> Solutions start to ship in high volume later this year.</p></blockquote><p>Source: Earnings Call</p><p>The company believes margins will return to previous levels as the company begins to sell in higher volumes. Moreover, SMCI&#39;s new 4.0 DCBBS, Datacenter Building Block Solutions should be a big step forward in terms of cost-efficiency, cutting down data center build times from three years to two</p><p>And margins could expand even further from here.</p><blockquote><p>However, long-term gross margins will benefit from lower manufacturing costs as we scale up production in Malaysia and Taiwan, in addition to expansion in the Americas and Europe.</p></blockquote><p>Source: Earnings Call.</p><p>The company is optimistic that it can return to previous margins of profitability, but this relies upon demand meeting their expectations too, and this is also not a guarantee.</p><h2 id=\"id_319704947\">Risks</h2><p>SMCI depends on high demand for Nvidia&#39;s (NVDA) chips, and we may see this slowdown in the coming quarter.</p><p>According to SMCI&#39;s CEO, Nvidia&#39;s Blackwell won&#39;t see any meaningful sale until 2025. This is why SMCI has &#34;only&#34; forecast $30 billion in revenue for 2025.</p><p>This is unfortunate news for SMCI, and it affects both its revenue and potential margins. If SMCI can&#39;t begin to ship &#34;at scale&#34; as was said in the earnings call, then margins won&#39;t expand.</p><p>From an industry view, it&#39;s also possible that AI spending in general could eventually slow down. Tech earnings have seen a mixed reception, with some companies, such as Alphabet (GOOGL) being punished for their high levels of spending on AI investments.</p><h2 id=\"id_3237504454\">Forecast and Valuation</h2><p>The current sell-off seems to be pricing in these future concerns, but it is overdone if you ask me.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/092e4315285f1c39f7a1e463fe1a78e3\" alt=\"SMCI Revenue and EPS estimates (SA)\" title=\"SMCI Revenue and EPS estimates (SA)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"787\"/><span>SMCI Revenue and EPS estimates (SA)</span></p><p>Earnings are set to increase by 55%, while analysts believe revenue will grow 76% YoY.</p><p>As it stands right now, SMCI trades at 17.9x 2025 earnings, and 1.37x 2025 revenues.</p><p>Even if we were to cut back SMCI&#39;s revenues and earnings estimates significantly, the stock would still trade at a reasonable valuation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f72303f38846442fb3617a1da3d6f75\" alt=\"SMCI valuation (SA)\" title=\"SMCI valuation (SA)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"861\"/><span>SMCI valuation (SA)</span></p><p>SMCI trades at a PEG and fwd PEG of under 1, and is also undervalued compared to its peers in terms of EV/EBIT. It may take a couple of quarters for investors to recover their faith, but in that time we could easily see this stock reclaim its previous highs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1274122031\">Technical analysis</h2><p>With the latest sell-off, I think we have a great R/R set-up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c21239a7a3d45a845b6e91bbed3d1f2e\" alt=\"SMCI TA (TrendSpider)\" title=\"SMCI TA (TrendSpider)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"637\"/><span>SMCI TA (TrendSpider)</span></p><p>Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that there is a lot of support around the $300 region. This is where we get the 200-week EMA, the 61.8% retracement of the wave 3 rally and also an important area of consolidation back in January.</p><p>If you buy now, the downside risk is 40%. Still significant, yes, but so is the upside potential. My target for the next rally would be somewhere close to $2000, which is over 300% return.</p><h2 id=\"id_3579063995\">Takeaway</h2><p>In conclusion, while SMCI remains a risky investment, it may certainly be worth opening a position. The way I&#39;d play this is I would accumulate over the next month, leaving room to double down if we do hit $300. The next earnings will be critical, as this will determine whether the company can really turn around the outlook in margins, and we will also have more clarity about overall demand by then.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: Disaster Earnings, A Massive Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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(NASDAQ:SMCI) reported weak fiscal Q4 earnings on Tuesday, the 6th of August, leading to a 20% drop in its share price.While the company did not meet investors' lofty goals, and it certainly faces challenges ahead, the sell-off seems to be overdone.Looking at revenue and earnings estimates, the company now seems undervalued, with substantial upside potential.If the AI trade still has legs, these are by far the longest.I last rated SMCI a buy, after the stock had consolidated around $700. We have now broken support after these disappointing earnings. Nonetheless, I am upgrading to a Strong Buy as I feel the market is overreacting to what, I believe, is just a temporary complication.Q2 EarningsSMCI delivered results below expectations, hitting revenue estimates but missing earnings. While revenue is still growing at a fast pace, as expected, the profit margin has contracted, and this worries investors.SMCI Revenue (Investor slides)The company saw revenues increase 143% YoY and 38% QoQ. As we can see below, the highest growing subsegment was OEM Appliances & Large DC.SMCI Revenue Mix (Investor slides)And though the stock sold off, guidance for the next quarter was still strong.CEO takeaways (Investor slides)The company expects revenue of between $6-%7 billion. This is a surprisingly big range. The company also expects non-GAAP net income per diluted share of between $6.69 and $8.27. The lower range of the guidance would have earnings close to flat QoQ, and this is a big concern for investors.Operating expenses and margin (Investor slides)Despite strong revenue growth, the company has seen a meaningful reduction in operating margins. This can be attributed to higher OPEX as the company has invested more heavily in R&D.What's going on with profitability?This is undoubtedly the biggest question we have to answer after these earnings. Why are margins down so much? And will they recover going forward?Our Q4 operating margin is 7.8%, which is lower than what we expected due to the higher mix of hyperscale datacenter business and expedited costs of our DLC liquid cooling components in June and September quarters.Source: Earnings Call.Management points towards a change in revenue mix and, more importantly, the expedited costs of components. This should actually ease now as the company is well stocked in terms of components.Again, we anticipate that the short-term margin pressure will ease and return to normal ranges before the end of fiscal 2025, especially when our DLC liquid cooling and Datacenter Building Block Solutions start to ship in high volume later this year.Source: Earnings CallThe company believes margins will return to previous levels as the company begins to sell in higher volumes. Moreover, SMCI's new 4.0 DCBBS, Datacenter Building Block Solutions should be a big step forward in terms of cost-efficiency, cutting down data center build times from three years to twoAnd margins could expand even further from here.However, long-term gross margins will benefit from lower manufacturing costs as we scale up production in Malaysia and Taiwan, in addition to expansion in the Americas and Europe.Source: Earnings Call.The company is optimistic that it can return to previous margins of profitability, but this relies upon demand meeting their expectations too, and this is also not a guarantee.RisksSMCI depends on high demand for Nvidia's (NVDA) chips, and we may see this slowdown in the coming quarter.According to SMCI's CEO, Nvidia's Blackwell won't see any meaningful sale until 2025. This is why SMCI has \"only\" forecast $30 billion in revenue for 2025.This is unfortunate news for SMCI, and it affects both its revenue and potential margins. If SMCI can't begin to ship \"at scale\" as was said in the earnings call, then margins won't expand.From an industry view, it's also possible that AI spending in general could eventually slow down. Tech earnings have seen a mixed reception, with some companies, such as Alphabet (GOOGL) being punished for their high levels of spending on AI investments.Forecast and ValuationThe current sell-off seems to be pricing in these future concerns, but it is overdone if you ask me.SMCI Revenue and EPS estimates (SA)Earnings are set to increase by 55%, while analysts believe revenue will grow 76% YoY.As it stands right now, SMCI trades at 17.9x 2025 earnings, and 1.37x 2025 revenues.Even if we were to cut back SMCI's revenues and earnings estimates significantly, the stock would still trade at a reasonable valuation.SMCI valuation (SA)SMCI trades at a PEG and fwd PEG of under 1, and is also undervalued compared to its peers in terms of EV/EBIT. It may take a couple of quarters for investors to recover their faith, but in that time we could easily see this stock reclaim its previous highs.Technical analysisWith the latest sell-off, I think we have a great R/R set-up.SMCI TA (TrendSpider)Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that there is a lot of support around the $300 region. This is where we get the 200-week EMA, the 61.8% retracement of the wave 3 rally and also an important area of consolidation back in January.If you buy now, the downside risk is 40%. Still significant, yes, but so is the upside potential. My target for the next rally would be somewhere close to $2000, which is over 300% return.TakeawayIn conclusion, while SMCI remains a risky investment, it may certainly be worth opening a position. The way I'd play this is I would accumulate over the next month, leaving room to double down if we do hit $300. The next earnings will be critical, as this will determine whether the company can really turn around the outlook in margins, and we will also have more clarity about overall demand by then.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}