To The Moon

The money-making effect is mainly generated in bubbles, and in many cases the bubbles will last for a long time. For example, Internet technology, EV, AI and Chinese real estate.

In a bull market, it is easy to make money by predicting the short-term trends of hot stocks and actively participating. As long as it is not at the end of the bull market, the risk is usually not high and the returns are good. The core effect of this investment activity is to produce a lot of dopamine.

The most critical point of this investment is the judgment of the big trend, and the trend has a very strong inertia. Whether it is rising or falling, it can exceed the expectations of ordinary people.

I basically do not participate in market trends to trade. To be precise, I don’t actively invest in stocks. Most of the time, I prefer to put most of my money in Singapore Savings Bonds.

I only do big event-driven stock trading.

I work in the oil industry. The Covid-19 epidemic caused oil prices to plummet. I gradually bought oil company stocks, and the more it fell, the more I bought until I had no cash. Wait until the Covid-19 vaccine is on the market, and gradually sold oil stocks.

The basic principle is that oil is still the main energy source at present, and the supply of green energy has great volatility. The Covid epidemic will end sooner or later.

Then the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, which is actually the sequel to the Covid epidemic. During the epidemic, the money supply was too strong.

I gradually bought dividend stocks, and the more they fell, the more I bought.

The basic principle is that dividend stocks are negatively correlated with interest rates. High interest rates, high dividends, and low stock prices. The United States is a country with high government debt and high technology. Low interest rates are the norm, and high interest rates are temporary.

My investment behavior, in my opinion, is correct. But most of the time my account is paper losses. I can't judge how long the COVID-19 epidemic will last, and I can't judge how high and how long the Fed will raise interest rates. I just buy more and more when the price falls.

The COVID-19 investment cycle is about three years, from building a position to clearing oil company stocks.

The Fed's interest rate hike investment is currently estimated to have a cycle of about 4-5 years, from the Fed's interest rate hike to the interest rate cut to the neutral interest rate.

Smart people will think this is a stupid investment. Buy the most hopeless stocks at the most difficult time.

My investment is basically a steady profit. But there are side effects. This kind of investment does not produce dopamine at all. The paper loss time is most of the investment cycle, bitter and boring. There is nothing surprised about the profit, because the stock price is just to go back to normal.

This article is dedicated to my friends who are working on trend forecasting in hot and popular stocks.

$Apple(AAPL)$  

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  

@TigerStars