To The Moon

On September 10, the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris took place in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where the two candidates clashed over tariffs, the economy, energy, and international conflicts. This debate has sparked new investment considerations in markets, particularly concerning ETFs related to cryptocurrency, clean energy, and finance. This article analyzes market reactions post-debate and explores ETFs likely to be affected.

1. Tariffs & Financial ETFs: Policy Divergence Influences Market

During the debate, Trump reaffirmed his policy of imposing high tariffs on imported goods, arguing that it would generate billions in revenue for the U.S. without significantly impacting inflation. He emphasized that these tariffs would be borne by foreign governments rather than U.S. consumers.

Harris, however, labeled this policy as the "Trump sales tax," arguing that middle-class American families would ultimately pay for these tariffs through higher prices, which would drive inflation and harm consumers.

This divergence in views has the potential to cause volatility in financial and consumer sector ETFs. For example, Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) may fluctuate depending on market expectations about tariff impacts. If investors believe Trump’s reelection could reduce regulatory pressures, financial and consumer ETFs might benefit. Conversely, if the market sees Harris' economic policy as reducing the tariff burden on consumers, related ETFs could also gain.

2. Solar & Clean Energy: Investment Opportunities Amid Policy Differences

Energy policy was a major focal point in the debate. Surprisingly, Trump expressed support for solar energy, calling himself a "big fan of solar," which caught some off guard. Harris reiterated her strong stance on clean energy, emphasizing that green energy development is a cornerstone of her campaign.

Clean energy ETFs like Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) are likely to benefit from this focus. Regardless of the election outcome, interest in clean energy investments is expected to continue. Should Harris win, the clean energy sector will likely receive more substantial support. On the other hand, if Trump wins, investors may focus on his solar energy promises.

3. Cryptocurrency ETFs: Balancing Regulation and Innovation

Trump and Harris hold contrasting positions on cryptocurrency. Trump advocates for reduced regulation, believing that a freer crypto market will foster innovation and economic growth. Harris, on the other hand, favors stricter regulation of cryptocurrency to mitigate risks and protect investors from potential volatility.

Cryptocurrency ETFs such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) have become focal points for investors. Should Trump’s policies prevail, crypto ETFs may see further growth due to reduced regulatory pressures. If Harris' regulatory approach is embraced, the market may become more cautious.

4. International Conflicts & Safe-Haven Assets

The debate also touched on international conflicts, including the Israel-Palestine conflict. Harris called for a ceasefire and a two-state solution, expressing sympathy for those affected by the ongoing conflict. Trump claimed that under his leadership, the conflict would not have occurred.

Geopolitical tensions often drive demand for safe-haven assets, and gold-related ETFs, like SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), could benefit from increased investor caution. International risks may also affect the performance of other global ETFs.

Key ETFs to Watch:

• Cryptocurrency ETFs:

  • iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)

  • Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH)

• Solar & Clean Energy ETFs:

  • Invesco Solar ETF (TAN)

  • iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN)

• Financial & Consumer ETFs:

  • Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)

  • Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)

• Safe-Haven Asset ETFs:

  • SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Conclusion:

The Trump-Harris debate has had widespread market implications, particularly regarding tariffs, energy, and cryptocurrency. As the election approaches, investors will closely monitor the candidates' policy directions. Key ETFs in sectors such as clean energy, finance, and cryptocurrency could be pivotal for investor portfolios, depending on who emerges victorious.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $Fidelity Ethereum Fund(FETH)$ $Invesco Solar ETF(TAN)$ $iShares Global Clean Energy ETF(ICLN)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$