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赤耳三皮
2021-03-21

Okie

Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year

后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。

Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":350792599,"tweetId":"350792599","gmtCreate":1616286506211,"gmtModify":1704792588016,"author":{"id":3576478109556405,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorId":3576478109556405,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Okie&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Okie&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Okie","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350792599","repostId":1119218309,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119218309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616226176,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119218309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-20 15:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119218309","media":"红刊财经","summary":"后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n ","content":"In the post-pandemic era, a new type of stagflation may become the norm, unlike the 1970s, which is now manifested as a structural asset bubble. I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and maintain my judgment of this year's index bull market. There will be no big bear market in A-shares or U.S. stocks this year, but it will be more structural market. High-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they are still facing a double-click in terms of performance and valuation. With the exit of game power and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year. A good company will always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continued to emphasize: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of falling.\" It is not a problem to hold a group. The question is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the fall. After a year of pandemic testing, many have high hopes for 2021. After the Spring Festival, the global stock market continued to adjust in stages. Macroeconomically, the rise in long-term bond yields in the United States and the liquidity tightening made investors feel greater anxiety. Under the premise of accelerated vaccination and a new round of fiscal stimulus of 1.9 trillion yuan, can overseas economic recovery meet expectations? What investment opportunities lie in the capital market in 2021?On March 18, Zhang Yidong, managing director and global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, gave a keynote speech at the \"CAFR-Kaiyin Lecture Hall\" jointly organized by the China Institute of Finance of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and the CAFR-Kaiyin Joint Research Laboratory. He shared his views on the above issues. In his view, there is no need to be too sensitive to the rise in U.S. long-term bond yields at this stage. As the epidemic is gradually controlled and the relationship between supply and demand is rebalanced, inflation will not reach a sustained vicious loss of control, and the global economic recovery will bring benefits to the capital market. Structural investment opportunities.Referring to the outlook for the capital market and specific investment opportunities, Zhang Yidong expressed his firm optimism about the long-term bull market of Hong Kong stocks, and the allocation of Chinese equity assets is in the ascendant. On the one hand, cyclical high-quality assets usher in a good layout opportunity for style switching, and pro-cyclical leaders with international pricing power and international competitiveness benefit more; On the other hand, with the exit of game power and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year.Economic recovery brings new \"troubles\"Hyperinflation will not occur, new stagflation may become the normLet's talk about macroeconomics first. First, let's talk about the troubles of economic recovery first. These are two very interesting key words, one is economic recovery, and the other is trouble. Economic recovery is a good thing, but the capital market has been quite uneasy about this good thing recently. I am worried about whether the capital market will face trend downside risks along with trend forces such as economic recovery and significant upward trend in long-term bond interest rates.I think we need to look at the essence from the fundamental logic. There is no doubt that the economic fundamentals are improving. On the one hand, vaccination is accelerating; On the other hand, a new round of US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States has been approved; In addition, considering the low base in the second quarter of last year, we believe that the U.S. economy is expected to usher in a phased strong recovery in the next few months or even the next few quarters. With the repair of residents' balance sheets, residents' willingness to consume will also increase with a high probability. Service-oriented consumption represented by transportation, including accommodation, tourism and other entertainment industries, will have a very strong room for repair.Second, will it bring hyperinflation? My answer is no. Inflation is an inevitable outcome of economic recovery. Due to the combined effect of strong demand growth and last year's low base, the inflation rate may reach a peak in the second quarter, but it will not form a sustained rebound, resulting in hyperinflation. Then we believe that in the second half of this year, as the epidemic is brought under control, the capacity utilization rate will gradually increase. Once the effective demand is met to a certain extent and the supply relationship is rebalanced, inflation in the United States may level out or even fall back.Third, we believe that U.S. monetary policy will remain loose. The latest unemployment rate in the United States is still as high as 6.2%, which is still far from the full employment target. The release of monetary policy is still on the way. At present, everyone's excessive pessimism is actually the logical confusion caused by the rapid rise in U.S. bond yields.The recent rise in U.S. long-term bond yields is more caused by the periodic imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. bond market, especially the shareholding ratio of overseas investors has rapidly dropped from nearly 50% to 34%. It is this change in holding structure that leads to the upward trend in its yield. This tactical factor is still within the control of the Federal Reserve and does not constitute the source of trend systemic risks. Therefore, when the mystery of the upward trend of U.S. bond yields is solved, it can be known that investors are currently overly sensitive to U.S. bond yields.Fourth, in the post-epidemic era, new stagflation may become the norm. From a medium-term perspective, the recovery in the United States is a bright spot, but we also believe that a new type of stagflation may occur. This kind of stagflation will not be like the oil crisis and rising commodity prices caused by limited supply in the 1970s, but a stagflation driven by insufficient demand, high debt, and over-issuance of credit currency. It is reflected in a structural asset bubble, which coexists with the low growth of the macro economy for a long time. In the Internet age where populism prevails, European and American countries are more willing to spend money to buy time than social reform, hoping to solve problems through innovation and technological progress. The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar will not collapse in the short term, and MMT's new monetary theory-fiscal deficit monetization will continue to be effective. Then in the era of new stagflation in the next 5-10 years, it is necessary to find the most important tool to maintain and increase value in the structural asset bubble.Global stock markets usher in a rebound window in the short term, and style turns to valueHong Kong stocks will maintain an index bull market, A-shares and US stocks are mainly structuralAs far as the outlook for the capital market is concerned, the index of U.S. bond volatility has reached a relatively high level in history, reaching more than double the standard deviation since 2016. According to historical experience, we expect that the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate in stages at around 1.6% at this stage, forming a large platform. Correspondingly, the global stock market may usher in a rebound time window from mid-to-late March to April. However, the latest core inflation data in the United States from May to June may exceed expectations, thus triggering another global stock market panic. mood.We believe that as the overseas epidemic eases, the supply relationship of bulk commodities will further improve in the second half of the year, and the market will slowly look at the economic recovery with a normal heart. By then, the dominant factor of stock market volatility will become an opportunity brought by recovery, gradually replacing the current concern about systemic risks. Therefore, in the short to medium term, the global style has shifted to be dominated by the value style, and assets that benefit from the strong recovery in Europe and the United States will perform better.In the medium and long term, we are most optimistic about China's equity assets. On the one hand, the allocation of foreign capital to China's equity assets is in the ascendant. As China's economy begins a new stage of high quality, the strategic position of the capital market in economic development will become more and more prominent. On the other hand, the policy of housing for housing and not speculation and the constraints on local debt have caused China's capital market to turn to a new stage driven by equity assets and capital markets.First of all, I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, believing that it will maintain the index bull market this year. The Hong Kong stock market is still a global valuation depression. There are not only cheap cyclical core assets, but also cost-effective consumption, medicine, and growth industry leaders represented by the Internet. Hong Kong's capital market is embracing China's new economy, conforming to the new development trend, and gradually getting rid of the original label of low valuation but never rising. On the one hand, since September last year, stocks with different rights for the same shares and Chinese concept stocks that have returned to secondary listing have been included in the Hang Seng Index. On the other hand, the three sectors of technology, consumption, and medicine have become the dominant sectors in the Hong Kong main board market, accounting for more than 70% of the entire market value. With the adjustment of the index structure and the listing of more new economy companies in Hong Kong, we believe that the Hang Seng Index is expected to replicate the trend of the S&P 500 in the United States in the future and get out of the structural bull.Secondly, we don't think there will be a big bear market in A-shares or US stocks this year, but more of them will show a structural market, which can be said to be \"half sea water and half flame\". On the one hand, growth stocks with relatively high valuations last year will recover from the cold; On the other hand, cyclical core assets that benefit from recovery and have strong elasticity in profits will drive the market to form trend opportunities. The core driving force here is recovery, which not only brings growing pains, but also opportunities for value.U.S. stocks are clearly rebalancing between growth stocks and value stocks this year. As long as U.S. liquidity does not tighten more than expected this year, there will be no systemic bear market in the U.S. market. With the continuous upward adjustment of profit forecasts, dynamic P/E continues to decline benign. Since the beginning of the year, the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 has dropped from about 28 times to 22 times, which is very obvious.As for the A-share market, we also believe that as fast as mid-March or as slow as May and June, it should gradually digest the impact of rising U.S. bond yields and concerns about rising inflation, and bottom out and rebound. At that time, we can face the economic recovery rationally, pay more attention to the opportunities brought by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and downplay the decline in risk appetite brought about by the systemic bear market.High-quality value stocks deposit Davis double-click opportunities in the first half of the yearGrowth core assets will return as kings in the second half of the yearSpecific to investment opportunities. First, we believe that starting from mid-March, whether it is Hong Kong stocks or A-shares, cyclical high-quality assets are expected to keep up with the pace of their US stock counterparts. Since November last year, U.S. stocks have begun to switch styles. Cyclical high-quality assets related to economic recovery, such as energy finance, industry, equipment and other industries, have experienced significantly stronger growth than the \"popular fried chicken\" in the previous two years (technology, especially the information technology industry, as well as medical care, consumer staples and other industries). If the European and American economies continue to recover in the second quarter, the continued strength of value stocks in the U.S. capital market will also drive the style switch of Hong Kong stocks and A shares.Therefore, for Hong Kong stocks, high-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they are still facing a double-click in terms of performance and valuation. Especially in the first half of this year, the so-called deep value core assets have both relative and absolute returns. Among them, industries such as finance, real estate, energy, and chemical industry have dividend yields of 7% or even higher, and the financial results in the next two months can also fully release catalysts for the market.Second, one thing to confirm is that this style switch is different from the previous \"coal flying dancing\" and \"infrastructure and real estate release\". Because this year's policy insists on housing for living rather than speculation, and local debt must also resolve existing risks. The promotion of the real estate industry chain will not be as strong as before. This time, the style is more reflected in the two power sources.The first driving force is the economic recovery in Europe and the United States. This means that the leading assets with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more, rather than the effects of the entire sector. It is necessary to look for alpha opportunities from the beta industry. This does not mean that all companies in cyclical industries can seize this opportunity. Only the best core assets are more valuable.The second driving force is changes on the supply side, that is, carbon emissions and carbon peaks. From the perspective of domestic policy dividends, we pay more attention to changes in industry structure, rather than the revaluation of style preferences or cyclical values from the demand side. Take the steel industry as an example. Maybe some small steel mills with high energy consumption will eventually find it difficult to persist or be acquired by large steel mills. The same is true for coal and chemical industry. This is a kind of structural optimization, which can also be said to be \"supply-side reform version 2.0\".Knowing this, let's look at this style switch. It does not mean that we can buy cyclical stocks casually with our eyes closed, nor can we speculate on cyclical stocks with speculative psychology. The key is to look at the fundamental logic, that is, to see these two core driving forces clearly.Finally, there is still hope that the opportunity of core assets in the growth field will return in the second half of the year.It should be noted that after rising in the past two years or even nearly three years, growth core assets need to face a period of \"recuperation\" in the first half of this year. The core assets that everyone is talking about now are more of a game logic. After fund managers raise funds, they will definitely invest in the companies they are most familiar with, thus forming a virtuous circle in the past one or two years. However, in recent times, all the bullish factors have been fully reflected in the valuation. Once there is some \"trouble\" and people's hearts are scattered, all kinds of funds will begin to face the situation of capital redemption and the need to sell stocks, which will inevitably bring about a decline in net value. As a result, even good asset targets will be killed when this style switch occurs. Therefore, even if there are some high-quality growth core assets now, dynamic P/E or PS has become reasonable, but from the perspective of relative rate of return, it is still not good in the first half of this year. If there is an opportunity, select those Alpha opportunities whose performance exceeds expectations. This kind of opportunity definitely exists, but this kind of opportunity may belong more to professional institutional investors than to ordinary investors. What ordinary investors have to grasp is actually a high probability.In the second half of this year, the financial report data will bring good performance, and the dynamic valuation of these core assets will be very advantageous. At the same time, some selling game forces have been cleared out. At that time, there will be a good opportunity for the layout of growth core assets. It is said that a good company will always be there. I, I have continued to emphasize since the beginning of 2016: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of falling.\" If the valuation of real core assets is too expensive, it will definitely fall. It is not a problem to hold a group. The problem is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the decline.","source":"lsy1573825873635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n红刊财经2021-03-20 15:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn the post-pandemic era, a new type of stagflation may become the norm, unlike the 1970s, which is now manifested as a structural asset bubble. I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and maintain my judgment of this year's index bull market. There will be no big bear market in A-shares or U.S. stocks this year, but it will be more structural market. High-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they are still facing a double-click in terms of performance and valuation. With the exit of game power and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year. A good company will always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continued to emphasize: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of falling.\" It is not a problem to hold a group. The question is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the fall. After a year of pandemic testing, many have high hopes for 2021. After the Spring Festival, the global stock market continued to adjust in stages. Macroeconomically, the rise in long-term bond yields in the United States and the liquidity tightening made investors feel greater anxiety. Under the premise of accelerated vaccination and a new round of fiscal stimulus of 1.9 trillion yuan, can overseas economic recovery meet expectations? What investment opportunities lie in the capital market in 2021?On March 18, Zhang Yidong, managing director and global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, gave a keynote speech at the \"CAFR-Kaiyin Lecture Hall\" jointly organized by the China Institute of Finance of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and the CAFR-Kaiyin Joint Research Laboratory. He shared his views on the above issues. In his view, there is no need to be too sensitive to the rise in U.S. long-term bond yields at this stage. As the epidemic is gradually controlled and the relationship between supply and demand is rebalanced, inflation will not reach a sustained vicious loss of control, and the global economic recovery will bring benefits to the capital market. Structural investment opportunities.Referring to the outlook for the capital market and specific investment opportunities, Zhang Yidong expressed his firm optimism about the long-term bull market of Hong Kong stocks, and the allocation of Chinese equity assets is in the ascendant. On the one hand, cyclical high-quality assets usher in a good layout opportunity for style switching, and pro-cyclical leaders with international pricing power and international competitiveness benefit more; On the other hand, with the exit of game power and the release of profits, the core assets in the growth field are expected to return as the king in the second half of the year.Economic recovery brings new \"troubles\"Hyperinflation will not occur, new stagflation may become the normLet's talk about macroeconomics first. First, let's talk about the troubles of economic recovery first. These are two very interesting key words, one is economic recovery, and the other is trouble. Economic recovery is a good thing, but the capital market has been quite uneasy about this good thing recently. I am worried about whether the capital market will face trend downside risks along with trend forces such as economic recovery and significant upward trend in long-term bond interest rates.I think we need to look at the essence from the fundamental logic. There is no doubt that the economic fundamentals are improving. On the one hand, vaccination is accelerating; On the other hand, a new round of US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States has been approved; In addition, considering the low base in the second quarter of last year, we believe that the U.S. economy is expected to usher in a phased strong recovery in the next few months or even the next few quarters. With the repair of residents' balance sheets, residents' willingness to consume will also increase with a high probability. Service-oriented consumption represented by transportation, including accommodation, tourism and other entertainment industries, will have a very strong room for repair.Second, will it bring hyperinflation? My answer is no. Inflation is an inevitable outcome of economic recovery. Due to the combined effect of strong demand growth and last year's low base, the inflation rate may reach a peak in the second quarter, but it will not form a sustained rebound, resulting in hyperinflation. Then we believe that in the second half of this year, as the epidemic is brought under control, the capacity utilization rate will gradually increase. Once the effective demand is met to a certain extent and the supply relationship is rebalanced, inflation in the United States may level out or even fall back.Third, we believe that U.S. monetary policy will remain loose. The latest unemployment rate in the United States is still as high as 6.2%, which is still far from the full employment target. The release of monetary policy is still on the way. At present, everyone's excessive pessimism is actually the logical confusion caused by the rapid rise in U.S. bond yields.The recent rise in U.S. long-term bond yields is more caused by the periodic imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. bond market, especially the shareholding ratio of overseas investors has rapidly dropped from nearly 50% to 34%. It is this change in holding structure that leads to the upward trend in its yield. This tactical factor is still within the control of the Federal Reserve and does not constitute the source of trend systemic risks. Therefore, when the mystery of the upward trend of U.S. bond yields is solved, it can be known that investors are currently overly sensitive to U.S. bond yields.Fourth, in the post-epidemic era, new stagflation may become the norm. From a medium-term perspective, the recovery in the United States is a bright spot, but we also believe that a new type of stagflation may occur. This kind of stagflation will not be like the oil crisis and rising commodity prices caused by limited supply in the 1970s, but a stagflation driven by insufficient demand, high debt, and over-issuance of credit currency. It is reflected in a structural asset bubble, which coexists with the low growth of the macro economy for a long time. In the Internet age where populism prevails, European and American countries are more willing to spend money to buy time than social reform, hoping to solve problems through innovation and technological progress. The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar will not collapse in the short term, and MMT's new monetary theory-fiscal deficit monetization will continue to be effective. Then in the era of new stagflation in the next 5-10 years, it is necessary to find the most important tool to maintain and increase value in the structural asset bubble.Global stock markets usher in a rebound window in the short term, and style turns to valueHong Kong stocks will maintain an index bull market, A-shares and US stocks are mainly structuralAs far as the outlook for the capital market is concerned, the index of U.S. bond volatility has reached a relatively high level in history, reaching more than double the standard deviation since 2016. According to historical experience, we expect that the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate in stages at around 1.6% at this stage, forming a large platform. Correspondingly, the global stock market may usher in a rebound time window from mid-to-late March to April. However, the latest core inflation data in the United States from May to June may exceed expectations, thus triggering another global stock market panic. mood.We believe that as the overseas epidemic eases, the supply relationship of bulk commodities will further improve in the second half of the year, and the market will slowly look at the economic recovery with a normal heart. By then, the dominant factor of stock market volatility will become an opportunity brought by recovery, gradually replacing the current concern about systemic risks. Therefore, in the short to medium term, the global style has shifted to be dominated by the value style, and assets that benefit from the strong recovery in Europe and the United States will perform better.In the medium and long term, we are most optimistic about China's equity assets. On the one hand, the allocation of foreign capital to China's equity assets is in the ascendant. As China's economy begins a new stage of high quality, the strategic position of the capital market in economic development will become more and more prominent. On the other hand, the policy of housing for housing and not speculation and the constraints on local debt have caused China's capital market to turn to a new stage driven by equity assets and capital markets.First of all, I am still unswervingly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, believing that it will maintain the index bull market this year. The Hong Kong stock market is still a global valuation depression. There are not only cheap cyclical core assets, but also cost-effective consumption, medicine, and growth industry leaders represented by the Internet. Hong Kong's capital market is embracing China's new economy, conforming to the new development trend, and gradually getting rid of the original label of low valuation but never rising. On the one hand, since September last year, stocks with different rights for the same shares and Chinese concept stocks that have returned to secondary listing have been included in the Hang Seng Index. On the other hand, the three sectors of technology, consumption, and medicine have become the dominant sectors in the Hong Kong main board market, accounting for more than 70% of the entire market value. With the adjustment of the index structure and the listing of more new economy companies in Hong Kong, we believe that the Hang Seng Index is expected to replicate the trend of the S&P 500 in the United States in the future and get out of the structural bull.Secondly, we don't think there will be a big bear market in A-shares or US stocks this year, but more of them will show a structural market, which can be said to be \"half sea water and half flame\". On the one hand, growth stocks with relatively high valuations last year will recover from the cold; On the other hand, cyclical core assets that benefit from recovery and have strong elasticity in profits will drive the market to form trend opportunities. The core driving force here is recovery, which not only brings growing pains, but also opportunities for value.U.S. stocks are clearly rebalancing between growth stocks and value stocks this year. As long as U.S. liquidity does not tighten more than expected this year, there will be no systemic bear market in the U.S. market. With the continuous upward adjustment of profit forecasts, dynamic P/E continues to decline benign. Since the beginning of the year, the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 has dropped from about 28 times to 22 times, which is very obvious.As for the A-share market, we also believe that as fast as mid-March or as slow as May and June, it should gradually digest the impact of rising U.S. bond yields and concerns about rising inflation, and bottom out and rebound. At that time, we can face the economic recovery rationally, pay more attention to the opportunities brought by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and downplay the decline in risk appetite brought about by the systemic bear market.High-quality value stocks deposit Davis double-click opportunities in the first half of the yearGrowth core assets will return as kings in the second half of the yearSpecific to investment opportunities. First, we believe that starting from mid-March, whether it is Hong Kong stocks or A-shares, cyclical high-quality assets are expected to keep up with the pace of their US stock counterparts. Since November last year, U.S. stocks have begun to switch styles. Cyclical high-quality assets related to economic recovery, such as energy finance, industry, equipment and other industries, have experienced significantly stronger growth than the \"popular fried chicken\" in the previous two years (technology, especially the information technology industry, as well as medical care, consumer staples and other industries). If the European and American economies continue to recover in the second quarter, the continued strength of value stocks in the U.S. capital market will also drive the style switch of Hong Kong stocks and A shares.Therefore, for Hong Kong stocks, high-quality value stocks are having a good defensive counterattack layout point, and at the same time, they are still facing a double-click in terms of performance and valuation. Especially in the first half of this year, the so-called deep value core assets have both relative and absolute returns. Among them, industries such as finance, real estate, energy, and chemical industry have dividend yields of 7% or even higher, and the financial results in the next two months can also fully release catalysts for the market.Second, one thing to confirm is that this style switch is different from the previous \"coal flying dancing\" and \"infrastructure and real estate release\". Because this year's policy insists on housing for living rather than speculation, and local debt must also resolve existing risks. The promotion of the real estate industry chain will not be as strong as before. This time, the style is more reflected in the two power sources.The first driving force is the economic recovery in Europe and the United States. This means that the leading assets with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more, rather than the effects of the entire sector. It is necessary to look for alpha opportunities from the beta industry. This does not mean that all companies in cyclical industries can seize this opportunity. Only the best core assets are more valuable.The second driving force is changes on the supply side, that is, carbon emissions and carbon peaks. From the perspective of domestic policy dividends, we pay more attention to changes in industry structure, rather than the revaluation of style preferences or cyclical values from the demand side. Take the steel industry as an example. Maybe some small steel mills with high energy consumption will eventually find it difficult to persist or be acquired by large steel mills. The same is true for coal and chemical industry. This is a kind of structural optimization, which can also be said to be \"supply-side reform version 2.0\".Knowing this, let's look at this style switch. It does not mean that we can buy cyclical stocks casually with our eyes closed, nor can we speculate on cyclical stocks with speculative psychology. The key is to look at the fundamental logic, that is, to see these two core driving forces clearly.Finally, there is still hope that the opportunity of core assets in the growth field will return in the second half of the year.It should be noted that after rising in the past two years or even nearly three years, growth core assets need to face a period of \"recuperation\" in the first half of this year. The core assets that everyone is talking about now are more of a game logic. After fund managers raise funds, they will definitely invest in the companies they are most familiar with, thus forming a virtuous circle in the past one or two years. However, in recent times, all the bullish factors have been fully reflected in the valuation. Once there is some \"trouble\" and people's hearts are scattered, all kinds of funds will begin to face the situation of capital redemption and the need to sell stocks, which will inevitably bring about a decline in net value. As a result, even good asset targets will be killed when this style switch occurs. Therefore, even if there are some high-quality growth core assets now, dynamic P/E or PS has become reasonable, but from the perspective of relative rate of return, it is still not good in the first half of this year. If there is an opportunity, select those Alpha opportunities whose performance exceeds expectations. This kind of opportunity definitely exists, but this kind of opportunity may belong more to professional institutional investors than to ordinary investors. What ordinary investors have to grasp is actually a high probability.In the second half of this year, the financial report data will bring good performance, and the dynamic valuation of these core assets will be very advantageous. At the same time, some selling game forces have been cleared out. At that time, there will be a good opportunity for the layout of growth core assets. It is said that a good company will always be there. I, I have continued to emphasize since the beginning of 2016: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of falling.\" If the valuation of real core assets is too expensive, it will definitely fall. It is not a problem to hold a group. The problem is whether the related assets show greater value or a scam after the decline.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg\">红刊财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119218309","content_text":"后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态，不同于70年代，现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市，但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n 优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。\n\n\n 成长领域核心资产随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，有希望在下半年王者归来。\n\n\n 好公司它是永远在那里的，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。\n\n在经历了一年的疫情考验后，许多人对2021年寄予厚望。春节过后，全球股市持续阶段性调整，宏观经济上美国长期债券收益率上行和流动性收紧使得投资者产生比较大的焦虑。在疫苗加速接种和新一轮1.9万亿财政大刺激的前提下，海外经济复苏是否能达到预期？2021年资本市场蕴藏着哪些投资机会？\n3月18日，兴业证券董事总经理、全球首席策略师张忆东在由上海交通大学中国金融研究院、CAFR-凯银联合研究实验室联合举办的《CAFR-凯银大讲堂》上进行了主题演讲，针对上述问题分享了他的观点。在他看来，现阶段无需对美国长债收益率的上升过于敏感，随着疫情逐步得到控制，供需关系达到再平衡，通胀不会达成持续性恶性失控，全球经济复苏将为资本市场带来结构性投资机会。\n提及对资本市场的展望和具体投资机会，张忆东表示坚定看好港股长期牛市，配置中国权益资产方兴未艾。一方面，周期类优质资产迎来风格切换的布局良机，具有国际定价权及国际竞争力的顺周期龙头受益更多；另一方面，随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放，成长领域核心资产有希望在下半年王者归来。\n经济复苏带来新“烦恼”\n恶性通胀不会发生 新型滞胀或成为常态\n首先谈谈宏观经济。第一，我们先谈论一下经济复苏的烦恼。这是很有意思的两个关键词，一个是经济复苏，另外一个是烦恼。经济复苏是个好事，但最近资本市场对这个好事比较忐忑。担心会不会伴随着经济复苏、长债利率上行显著等趋势性力量，资本市场面临趋势性下行风险。\n我认为需要从基本面逻辑来看本质，毫无疑问经济基本面是向好的。一方面，疫苗接种在加速；另一方面，美国新一轮的1.9万亿美元财政大刺激已经获批；此外，再考虑到去年二季度的低基数，我们认为未来几个月甚至是未来几个季度，美国经济有望迎来阶段性的强复苏。随着居民资产负债表修复，居民消费意愿也将大概率提升，以交通运输为代表的服务型消费，包括住宿、旅游等娱乐行业修复的空间会非常强大。\n第二，会不会带来恶性的通胀？我的答案是不会。通胀是经济复苏的必然产物，受到需求增长强烈和去年低基数的共同作用，二季度通胀率可能会达到一个峰值，但是并不会形成持续性反弹，造成恶性通胀。那么我们认为在今年的下半年，随着疫情得到控制，产能利用率也会逐步提升，一旦有效需求得到一定的满足，供给关系再平衡之后，可能美国的通胀会走平，甚至是有所回落。\n第三，我们认为美国货币政策依然会维持宽松。美国最新的失业率依然高达6.2%，离充分就业目标还很远。货币政策的放水依然还在路上，目前大家过度悲观其实是美债收益率上行过快所引发的逻辑混乱。\n近期美国长债收益率的上行更多是因为阶段性的美国债券市场的供求关系的失衡所引发的，特别是海外投资者持有比例从近50%快速下降到了34%。是这种持有结构的变化导致了其收益率的上行。这一战术性因素，仍是美联储可控范围内的，不构成趋势性系统风险的源泉。因此，当美债收益率的上行之谜解开之后，就能够知道目前投资者对美债收益率的关注过度敏感了。\n第四，后疫情时代，新型滞胀可能会成为常态。从中期的角度来说，美国复苏是个亮点，但是我们也相信说有可能会出现新型滞胀。这种滞胀不会像上世纪70年代供给受限导致石油危机、大宗商品价格上涨一样，而是需求不足、高债务、信用货币超发所驱动的滞涨，体现为结构性的资产泡沫，与宏观经济的低增长长期共存。民粹主义盛行的互联网时代，比起社会改革，欧美国家更愿意花钱来买时间，希望通过创新和科技进步来解决问题。美元主导的国际货币体系短期内还不会崩盘，MMT新货币理论——财政赤字货币化将持续有效。那么在未来5-10年新型滞胀的大时代，需要在结构性的资产泡沫中寻找一个在最重要的保值增值工具。\n全球股市短期迎来反弹窗口，风格转向价值\n港股将维持指数牛市 A股美股以结构性为主\n就资本市场的展望来说，由于美债波动率的指数已经到了一个历史上的相对高位，达到了2016年以来的一倍标准差上方。根据历史经验，我们预期美国10年期国债收益率在现阶段的1.6%左右会阶段性震荡，形成一个大的平台。对应的，全球股市在3月中下旬到4月份之间可能会迎来一个反弹时间窗口，但是，5月至6月美国最新的核心通胀数据有可能超预期，从而引发又一次的全球股市恐慌情绪。\n我们认为，快则二季度，慢则的三季度，随着海外疫情的缓解，下半年大宗商品供给关系将进一步改善，市场将慢慢的以平常心来看待经济复苏。届时，股市波动的主导因素就将变成复苏带来的机会，逐步替代现阶段对于系统性风险的担忧。所以，中短期全球的风格转向以价值风格主导，受益于欧美复苏力度大的资产表现会更好。\n中长期我们最看好中国的权益资产，一方面，外资配置中国权益资产方兴未艾，随着中国经济开始高质量的新阶段，资本市场在经济发展中牵一发而动全身的这个战略地位会越来越凸显。另一方面，房住不炒政策以及对于地方债务的约束，都使得中国资本市场开始转向以权益资产、资本市场驱动的一个新阶段。\n首先，我仍然坚定不移的看好港股，认为它今年会维持指数牛市。港股市场仍是全球估值洼地，既有便宜的周期性的核心资产，同时也有性价比较好的消费、医药，及以互联网为代表的成长性行业龙头。香港资本市场正在拥抱中国新经济，顺应发展新趋势，逐步摆脱原先估值低却始终不上涨的这个标签。一方面，从去年9月份开始，同股不同权的、中概股回归二次上市的股票，纷纷被纳入到恒生指数。另一方面，科技、消费、医药这三个板块已经成为了香港主板市场的主导性板块，占整个市值比例超过了7成。伴随着指数结构的调整以及更多的新经济公司来到香港上市，我们认为未来恒生指数有希望复制美国标普500的走势，走出结构性的长牛。\n其次，我们也不认为 A股或美股今年会出现大的熊市，只是更多的会呈现出结构性行情，可以说是“一半海水一半火焰”。一方面，去年估值比较高的成长股会遇冷休养生息；另一方面，受益于复苏且盈利具有较强弹性的周期类核心资产，会驱动着行情形成趋势性机会。这里的核心的驱动力是复苏，复苏不仅带来成长的烦恼，同时也带来价值的机会。\n美股今年明显是成长股和价值股之间的再平衡。只要今年美国流动性不是超预期的收紧，那么美国市场不存在系统性的熊市。随着盈利预测不断上调，动态市盈率在持续良性的下降，标普500动态市盈率自年初以来已经从大概28倍降到了22倍，体现的非常明显。\n至于A股市场，我们也认为，快则三月中，慢则五六月应该会逐步消化美债收益率上行的冲击、通胀上行的担忧，见底回升。届时可以理性面对经济复苏，更加关注于盈利基本面的改善所带来的机会，而淡化系统性熊市所带来的风险偏好的下降。\n上半年优质价值股存戴维斯双击机会\n下半年成长型核心资产将王者归来\n具体到投资机会上。第一，我们认为从3月中旬开始，无论是港股还是A股，周期类的优质资产有望跟上美股同行的节奏。从去年11月份开始，美股已经开始了风格切换，与经济复苏相关的周期类优质资产，如能源金融、工业、设备等行业，涨幅表现明显强于前两年的“当红炸子鸡”（科技，特别是信息技术行业，以及医疗、必需消费品等行业）。如果二季度欧美经济持续复苏，那么美国资本市场价值股持续走强，也会带动港股 A股的风格切换。\n所以对港股而言，优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点，同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。尤其是今年上半年，所谓的深度价值型（deep value）核心资产，既具有相对收益，也具有绝对收益。其中像金融、地产，能源、化工这些行业有7%甚至更高的分红收益率，未来两个月财报业绩也能够给市场充分释放催化剂。\n第二，有一点要确认，这一次的风格切换和以往的“煤飞色舞”、“基建房地产大放水”有所不同。因为今年政策上坚持房住不炒，地方债务上也要化解存量风险，对于房地产产业链的推动不会像以往那么强烈，这一次的风格更多地体现在两个动力源。\n第一动力是欧美经济复苏。这代表着受益更多的会是具有国际定价权的及国际竞争力的龙头资产，而不是整个板块的效应。需要从贝塔行业里面寻找阿尔法机会，不是说所有的周期性行业公司都能抓住这个机会，只有最优秀的核心资产才更具价值。\n第二动力是供给端的变化，也就是碳排放和碳达峰。从国内政策红利的角度来说，我们更多关注的是行业结构的变化，而不是从需求端看风格偏好或周期价值的重估。拿钢铁行业举个例子，可能一些高能耗的小钢铁厂最终就会难以坚持或被大钢厂并购。煤炭、化工也是如此，这是一种结构的优化，也可以说是“供给侧改革2.0版”。\n了解这些我们再看这次的风格切换，并不是说闭着眼睛去随便买周期股，也不能以投机心理去炒作周期股。关键的还是要看基本面逻辑，也就是看清楚这两大核心驱动力。\n最后，成长领域核心资产的机会依然有希望在下半年王者归来。\n需要注意的是，成长型核心资产在经过了过去两年甚至将近三年的上涨之后，在今年上半年需要面临一段时间的“休养生息”。现在大家讲的核心资产更多是一个博弈的逻辑，基金经理募集到资金后，肯定是会投到自己最熟悉的公司，由此在过去的这一两年时间里形成良性循环。但是最近一段时间以来，所有的利多因素都已经充分反映到估值里，一旦有些“风吹草动”，人心散掉，各类基金就开始面临资金赎回、需要卖出股票的境况，这必然带来净值的回落。由此引发的结果就是，即使是好资产标的，在这种风格切换发生的时候也会被杀估值。所以即便现在有一些优质的成长型核心资产，动态市盈率或PS已经趋于合理了，但是从相对回报率的角度来说，在今年上半年依然是不好的。如果说有机会就精选那些业绩超预期的阿尔法的机会。这种机会肯定是有，但这种机会可能更加属于专业的机构投资者，而并不是对于普通投资者，普通投资者要把握的其实是个大概率。\n到了今年下半年，财报数据带来好的业绩体现，这些核心资产的动态估值将非常有优势，同时一些卖出的博弈型力量都已清仓出局了。那个时候将迎来成长型核心资产的布局良机。说好公司它是永远在那里的，我，我2016年初至今持续强调：“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”，真正核心资产估值太贵的话肯定也是会跌的，抱团不是问题，问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1830,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}