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Attractive Nvidia and Alphabet Prices Could Be a Stock-Market October Surprise. Here's Why

Tech giants look cheap on an earnings-growth basis, while U.S. stocks overall can resist seasonal weakness. Three weeks into the dreaded September-October stretch when U.S. stocks often tumble, there hasn't been much of a pullback. At least, not yet.Or likely, not at all. Any market weakness that does develop is a buying opportunity, and here are several reasons why:

Attractive Nvidia and Alphabet Prices Could Be a Stock-Market October Surprise. Here's Why

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Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2468535026","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Tech giants look cheap on an earnings-growth basis, while U.S. stocks overall can resist seasonal weakness. Three weeks into the dreaded September-October stretch when U.S. stocks often tumble, there hasn't been much of a pullback. At least, not yet.Or likely, not at all. Any market weakness that does develop is a buying opportunity, and here are several reasons why:","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Three weeks into the dreaded September-October stretch when U.S. stocks often tumble, there hasn&#39;t been much of a pullback. At least, not yet.</p><p>Or likely, not at all. Any market weakness that does develop is a buying opportunity, and here are several reasons why:</p><p><strong>1. Investor sentiment is bullish, but not overly so</strong>: Since the stock market fools most of the people most of the time, we&#39;d need to see excessive investor bullishness to set the market up for a sharp pullback. But that is not the case.</p><p>I follow about a dozen sentiment indicators, but if you track just one, make it the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. This one runs on a scale of 0.5 to five. Anything above four is a warning sign of excessive bullishness for me. The most recent reading, on Sept. 11, came in at 1.92. For me, any measure below two suggests that the market is buyable since sentiment is weak (in the contrarian sense).</p><p>Another closely watched measure, Bank of America&#39;s Sell Side Indicator, tracks the suggested stock allocation among sell-side strategists and most recently it&#39;s in neutral territory. It latest reading, at 56.2% equities, suggests a return of 11.5% for the S&amp;P 500 SPX over the next 12 months, says B of A strategist Savita Subramanian. Meanwhile, the survey shows that fund managers are cautious. They&#39;ve been selling economically sensitive sectors, such as energy, materials and consumer discretionary, which do well when the economy is strong.</p><p><strong>2. Recession is unlikely</strong>: The U.S. economy is not going into recession anytime soon. The rising unemployment rate is a false signal. The unemployment rate is the number of people working, as a percentage of the labor force. By definition, it goes up when more unemployed people (defined as anyone actively looking for work) join the labor force even as the job market remains healthy.</p><p>That&#39;s what&#39;s happening now. Companies continue to add to payrolls. But unemployment has been going up because the labor force is growing faster than job creation, notes Jim Paulsen, who publishes strategy commentary at Paulsen Perspective on Substack.</p><p>Read: This unemployment measure you&#39;ve never heard of is flashing a recession warning</p><p><strong>3. Consumer spending is strong:</strong> Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius tracks executive sentiment towards the consumer in earnings calls. In the second quarter his system put consumer sentiment at its highest level since 2022. He expects &#34;robust&#34; 2.4% consumer spending growth in the second half of 2024.</p><p><strong>4. Stocks hold up better in September and October when conditions are right:</strong> Two stocks that look attractive in this environment are Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a> and Alphabet <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a>. These stocks even look cheap according to a price earnings to growth <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEG\">$(PEG)$</a> ratio that famed investor Peter Lynch popularized. This measure weighs a stock&#39;s forward PE against its long-term earnings growth estimate. For growth stocks, a PEG ratio below 1.5 signifies cheapness. Nvidia has a PEG ratio of 0.66; Alphabet trades at a PEG ratio of 0.92.</p><p>Helping the broader market in September and October this year is that U.S. stocks do much better in these two months when interest rates are falling and the monetary supply is growing, Paulsen says. Stocks also fare better in September during election years, when the U.S. stock market performs no worse than average. Paulsen&#39;s chart below shows the performance difference:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1dea63f10598b0ca9b85b8baf5291a76\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Attractive Nvidia and Alphabet Prices Could Be a Stock-Market October Surprise. 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Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-19 07:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Three weeks into the dreaded September-October stretch when U.S. stocks often tumble, there hasn&#39;t been much of a pullback. At least, not yet.</p><p>Or likely, not at all. Any market weakness that does develop is a buying opportunity, and here are several reasons why:</p><p><strong>1. Investor sentiment is bullish, but not overly so</strong>: Since the stock market fools most of the people most of the time, we&#39;d need to see excessive investor bullishness to set the market up for a sharp pullback. But that is not the case.</p><p>I follow about a dozen sentiment indicators, but if you track just one, make it the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. This one runs on a scale of 0.5 to five. Anything above four is a warning sign of excessive bullishness for me. The most recent reading, on Sept. 11, came in at 1.92. For me, any measure below two suggests that the market is buyable since sentiment is weak (in the contrarian sense).</p><p>Another closely watched measure, Bank of America&#39;s Sell Side Indicator, tracks the suggested stock allocation among sell-side strategists and most recently it&#39;s in neutral territory. It latest reading, at 56.2% equities, suggests a return of 11.5% for the S&amp;P 500 SPX over the next 12 months, says B of A strategist Savita Subramanian. Meanwhile, the survey shows that fund managers are cautious. They&#39;ve been selling economically sensitive sectors, such as energy, materials and consumer discretionary, which do well when the economy is strong.</p><p><strong>2. Recession is unlikely</strong>: The U.S. economy is not going into recession anytime soon. The rising unemployment rate is a false signal. The unemployment rate is the number of people working, as a percentage of the labor force. By definition, it goes up when more unemployed people (defined as anyone actively looking for work) join the labor force even as the job market remains healthy.</p><p>That&#39;s what&#39;s happening now. Companies continue to add to payrolls. But unemployment has been going up because the labor force is growing faster than job creation, notes Jim Paulsen, who publishes strategy commentary at Paulsen Perspective on Substack.</p><p>Read: This unemployment measure you&#39;ve never heard of is flashing a recession warning</p><p><strong>3. Consumer spending is strong:</strong> Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius tracks executive sentiment towards the consumer in earnings calls. In the second quarter his system put consumer sentiment at its highest level since 2022. He expects &#34;robust&#34; 2.4% consumer spending growth in the second half of 2024.</p><p><strong>4. Stocks hold up better in September and October when conditions are right:</strong> Two stocks that look attractive in this environment are Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a> and Alphabet <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a>. These stocks even look cheap according to a price earnings to growth <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEG\">$(PEG)$</a> ratio that famed investor Peter Lynch popularized. This measure weighs a stock&#39;s forward PE against its long-term earnings growth estimate. For growth stocks, a PEG ratio below 1.5 signifies cheapness. Nvidia has a PEG ratio of 0.66; Alphabet trades at a PEG ratio of 0.92.</p><p>Helping the broader market in September and October this year is that U.S. stocks do much better in these two months when interest rates are falling and the monetary supply is growing, Paulsen says. Stocks also fare better in September during election years, when the U.S. stock market performs no worse than average. Paulsen&#39;s chart below shows the performance difference:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1dea63f10598b0ca9b85b8baf5291a76\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BMG7P926.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Global Infrastructure Income A Acc USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4514":"搜索引擎","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE00BMG7P694.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Global Infrastructure Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMG7P819.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Global Infrastructure Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2468535026","content_text":"Three weeks into the dreaded September-October stretch when U.S. stocks often tumble, there hasn't been much of a pullback. At least, not yet.Or likely, not at all. Any market weakness that does develop is a buying opportunity, and here are several reasons why:1. Investor sentiment is bullish, but not overly so: Since the stock market fools most of the people most of the time, we'd need to see excessive investor bullishness to set the market up for a sharp pullback. But that is not the case.I follow about a dozen sentiment indicators, but if you track just one, make it the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. This one runs on a scale of 0.5 to five. Anything above four is a warning sign of excessive bullishness for me. The most recent reading, on Sept. 11, came in at 1.92. For me, any measure below two suggests that the market is buyable since sentiment is weak (in the contrarian sense).Another closely watched measure, Bank of America's Sell Side Indicator, tracks the suggested stock allocation among sell-side strategists and most recently it's in neutral territory. It latest reading, at 56.2% equities, suggests a return of 11.5% for the S&P 500 SPX over the next 12 months, says B of A strategist Savita Subramanian. Meanwhile, the survey shows that fund managers are cautious. They've been selling economically sensitive sectors, such as energy, materials and consumer discretionary, which do well when the economy is strong.2. Recession is unlikely: The U.S. economy is not going into recession anytime soon. The rising unemployment rate is a false signal. The unemployment rate is the number of people working, as a percentage of the labor force. By definition, it goes up when more unemployed people (defined as anyone actively looking for work) join the labor force even as the job market remains healthy.That's what's happening now. Companies continue to add to payrolls. But unemployment has been going up because the labor force is growing faster than job creation, notes Jim Paulsen, who publishes strategy commentary at Paulsen Perspective on Substack.Read: This unemployment measure you've never heard of is flashing a recession warning3. Consumer spending is strong: Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius tracks executive sentiment towards the consumer in earnings calls. In the second quarter his system put consumer sentiment at its highest level since 2022. He expects \"robust\" 2.4% consumer spending growth in the second half of 2024.4. Stocks hold up better in September and October when conditions are right: Two stocks that look attractive in this environment are Nvidia $(NVDA)$ and Alphabet $(GOOGL)$. These stocks even look cheap according to a price earnings to growth $(PEG)$ ratio that famed investor Peter Lynch popularized. This measure weighs a stock's forward PE against its long-term earnings growth estimate. For growth stocks, a PEG ratio below 1.5 signifies cheapness. Nvidia has a PEG ratio of 0.66; Alphabet trades at a PEG ratio of 0.92.Helping the broader market in September and October this year is that U.S. stocks do much better in these two months when interest rates are falling and the monetary supply is growing, Paulsen says. Stocks also fare better in September during election years, when the U.S. stock market performs no worse than average. Paulsen's chart below shows the performance difference:","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":35,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}