Okie-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

1
Comment
Favorite

赤耳三皮
2021-03-28

Okie

Hong Hao: When the return of the king of value is in progress

概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期

Hong Hao: When the return of the king of value is in progress

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":352812517,"tweetId":"352812517","gmtCreate":1616926713739,"gmtModify":1704800013850,"author":{"id":3576478109556405,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorId":3576478109556405,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Okie&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Okie&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Okie","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352812517","repostId":1176152843,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176152843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616998863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176152843?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 14:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: When the return of the king of value is in progress","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176152843","media":"洪灝的中国市场...","summary":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期","content":"summaryThe unprecedented strength of growth stocks relative to value stocks began to fall back until June 2020. When the value kings really began to return at the end of November 2020, the market barely noticed the reversal of the relative strength of growth stocks. This growth stock strength based on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations and human greed, and at the same time, under the conditions of sufficient convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, finally formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to use the \"new crown bubble\" to describe this market situation. This is true in both Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released \"Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong wants to be used\", we took the lead in prompting the upcoming rotation of the value sector. In our article published last November2021 Outlook: The Value King Returns\", we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and proposed emerging markets, Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks as long-term opportunities.At present, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility, and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is actually linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, such thinking is truly unimaginative, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, because it predicts that the growth pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic will last forever.The global economy is recovering. As China's exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down American economy, the economic cycles of China and the United States are more closely intertwined than ever before. The strength of commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-term assets, so they are very sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have driven down growth multiples, while increasing volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. One headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In the current situation, we can temporarily replace value with low valuation. In other words, the current \"value investing\" is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weakness but remain below the long-term average. Cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth are just the opposite. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still be further repaired.Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In the recent high-level dialogue, the two sides faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag down the market in the short term. China's reserve ratio is unlikely to decrease significantly while China's economy continues to recover. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the real estate bubble, will begin to slow down. Historically, the weakening of the yuan has largely synchronized with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it did in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest limited index gains. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sector than the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by short-term price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets.This is the English version of our March 27, 2021 report \"Value Straking Back\"Chinese translation version. Thanks for reading.Value is returning to the kingGlobal economic recoveryThe recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the strength of the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic is repeated, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have carried out a series of book clubs in many cities in the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our bookForecasts: Economy, Cycles and Market BubblesWithin four months of publication, it has been printed a record ten times.During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper limit of the trading range of 2,900-3,600 predicted in our outlook report last November. When we released last JuneOutlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong wants to use\", we hinted at the upcoming value style rotation for the first time. In our release2021 Outlook: The Value King ReturnsIn the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong markets. Obviously, capital market participants are eager to know our prediction of the next trend of the market. This is the most common question we get asked at book clubs and the most challenging part of our job.To demonstrate the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare China's deposit reserve ratio with the year-on-year changes in rebar spot prices (Chart 1)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of deposit reserve ratio is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing stage with deposit reserve as the proxy indicator has basically ended. If China loosens its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>If the self-restraint of expansion leads to the cooling of the economy, the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the RRR is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the running law of monetary policy cycles from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to early 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, and will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.Chart 1: Rebar prices and reserve ratio trends show economic recovery, and commodities are strong at high levels<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500 Index. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously show a strong economic recovery (Chart 2)。 Our European indicator is pointing in the same direction (European charts are not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020.2021 Outlook: Return of the Value KingThe predictions made in \"are consistent.Chart 2: Leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, yield curve and S&P 500 all reflect economic recovery<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a>The interlaced linkage of Sino-US economiesThe Chinese and American economies are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a groundbreaking research paper,The conflict between China and the United States cycles\", explores the economic cycles of China and the United States, and how these cycles interweave and affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short-term economic cycles of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nested with each other to form medium cycles and long cycles.The linkage between the Sino-US economic cycles will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that given the completely different ways of managing the epidemic in the two countries, China's exports have become a more important input force to the U.S. economy. Therefore, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. As a result, the Chinese inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; The US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect the Chinese stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked from the chart below.Chart 3)Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalValue is returning to the kingTo understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit profile with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (Chart 4)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strength relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to repair from the bottom of the Sino-US trade war. But in 2020, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength as credit continued to expand and COVID-19 pandemic spread.The pandemic may well have changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good profitability resilience in the face of the raging COVID-19 pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion, and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"COVID bubble\" in growth stocks. But we would like to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period linearly.In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained growth economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, during the economic expansion phase, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (Chart 4), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in an investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as now, the \"COVID-19 bubble\" is shrinking.Chart 4: Credit expansion drives up growth and the relative strength of value has reached an unprecedented height<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalIn the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis also verifies a similar \"COVID-19 bubble\"-the relative strength of growth stocks over value stocks is much higher than historical levels. However, with the rollout of vaccination programs, the relative strength of growth over value is now reversing (Chart 5）。As we showed in the chart above, the relationship between China's PPI cycle, commodity strength and the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, China's PPI is likely to move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States will also rise simultaneously. As a result, volatility in U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.FromChart 5We can see that bond market volatility is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-term assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively speaking, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to linearly extrapolate growth to infinite forwards. Therefore, higher volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress the valuation of growth stocks and further weaken their relative strength<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalWe can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market as the economy recovers (Chart 6)。 In fact, the strong performance of the cyclical sector may well have surprised market companies. As we look forward to 2021 (\"Looking forward to 2021: The return of the value king\", 20201120) first predicted that cyclical stocks would return strongly, most people found it hard to believe. But now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become a market consensus, and their strong performance seems to have fully reflected the economic recovery prospects. So, what other investment opportunities do the market have in the next stage of economic recovery?Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have significantly outperformed as the economy recovers<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalWe can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is declining. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from past declines (Chart 7)。 These observations are consistent with the previousChart 5AndChart 6Consistent.In other words, even if the value is returning to the king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is fading. Therefore, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, while cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalGeopolitical risks disturb marketsThe delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses was highlighted by sparkling and fierce rhetoric from both sides during a recent high-level dialogue in Alaska. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the yuan has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every RMB depreciation is accompanied by an intensification of political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (Chart 8)。In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the first signal of RMB depreciation, and this spread is currently narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movement of currencies, bond yields and stock markets is a reflection of weak economic fundamentals in economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset the impact of these adverse factors to some extent.Chart 8: Geopolitical risks are high, and the bond yield difference between China and the United States has narrowed, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalOverall, market returns have reached historically highs relative to economic growth. YoY changes in the total market capitalization to GDP ratio historically tend to peak around 7% (Chart 9）。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it either corresponded to the bubble periods in 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery stage in 2009. Even after the beginning of August 2009, the year-on-year change in the ratio of total market value to GDP exceeded 7%, and the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the following months, the Shanghai Stock Exchange fluctuated sideways until 2010, when the People's Bank of China began to tighten monetary policy, it began to fall again. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity in the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.Chart 9: Market returns and valuation changes have reached historical highs<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International","source":"lsy1573477999576","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: When the return of the king of value is in progress</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: When the return of the king of value is in progress\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n洪灝的中国市场...2021-03-29 14:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nsummaryThe unprecedented strength of growth stocks relative to value stocks began to fall back until June 2020. When the value kings really began to return at the end of November 2020, the market barely noticed the reversal of the relative strength of growth stocks. This growth stock strength based on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations and human greed, and at the same time, under the conditions of sufficient convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, finally formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to use the \"new crown bubble\" to describe this market situation. This is true in both Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released \"Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong wants to be used\", we took the lead in prompting the upcoming rotation of the value sector. In our article published last November2021 Outlook: The Value King Returns\", we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and proposed emerging markets, Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks as long-term opportunities.At present, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility, and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is actually linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, such thinking is truly unimaginative, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, because it predicts that the growth pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic will last forever.The global economy is recovering. As China's exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down American economy, the economic cycles of China and the United States are more closely intertwined than ever before. The strength of commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-term assets, so they are very sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have driven down growth multiples, while increasing volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. One headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In the current situation, we can temporarily replace value with low valuation. In other words, the current \"value investing\" is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weakness but remain below the long-term average. Cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth are just the opposite. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still be further repaired.Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In the recent high-level dialogue, the two sides faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag down the market in the short term. China's reserve ratio is unlikely to decrease significantly while China's economy continues to recover. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the real estate bubble, will begin to slow down. Historically, the weakening of the yuan has largely synchronized with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it did in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest limited index gains. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sector than the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by short-term price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets.This is the English version of our March 27, 2021 report \"Value Straking Back\"Chinese translation version. Thanks for reading.Value is returning to the kingGlobal economic recoveryThe recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the strength of the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic is repeated, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have carried out a series of book clubs in many cities in the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our bookForecasts: Economy, Cycles and Market BubblesWithin four months of publication, it has been printed a record ten times.During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper limit of the trading range of 2,900-3,600 predicted in our outlook report last November. When we released last JuneOutlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong wants to use\", we hinted at the upcoming value style rotation for the first time. In our release2021 Outlook: The Value King ReturnsIn the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong markets. Obviously, capital market participants are eager to know our prediction of the next trend of the market. This is the most common question we get asked at book clubs and the most challenging part of our job.To demonstrate the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare China's deposit reserve ratio with the year-on-year changes in rebar spot prices (Chart 1)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of deposit reserve ratio is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing stage with deposit reserve as the proxy indicator has basically ended. If China loosens its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>If the self-restraint of expansion leads to the cooling of the economy, the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the RRR is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the running law of monetary policy cycles from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to early 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, and will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.Chart 1: Rebar prices and reserve ratio trends show economic recovery, and commodities are strong at high levels<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500 Index. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously show a strong economic recovery (Chart 2)。 Our European indicator is pointing in the same direction (European charts are not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020.2021 Outlook: Return of the Value KingThe predictions made in \"are consistent.Chart 2: Leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, yield curve and S&P 500 all reflect economic recovery<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a>The interlaced linkage of Sino-US economiesThe Chinese and American economies are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a groundbreaking research paper,The conflict between China and the United States cycles\", explores the economic cycles of China and the United States, and how these cycles interweave and affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short-term economic cycles of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nested with each other to form medium cycles and long cycles.The linkage between the Sino-US economic cycles will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that given the completely different ways of managing the epidemic in the two countries, China's exports have become a more important input force to the U.S. economy. Therefore, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. As a result, the Chinese inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; The US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect the Chinese stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked from the chart below.Chart 3)Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalValue is returning to the kingTo understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit profile with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (Chart 4)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strength relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to repair from the bottom of the Sino-US trade war. But in 2020, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength as credit continued to expand and COVID-19 pandemic spread.The pandemic may well have changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good profitability resilience in the face of the raging COVID-19 pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion, and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"COVID bubble\" in growth stocks. But we would like to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period linearly.In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained growth economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, during the economic expansion phase, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (Chart 4), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in an investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as now, the \"COVID-19 bubble\" is shrinking.Chart 4: Credit expansion drives up growth and the relative strength of value has reached an unprecedented height<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalIn the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis also verifies a similar \"COVID-19 bubble\"-the relative strength of growth stocks over value stocks is much higher than historical levels. However, with the rollout of vaccination programs, the relative strength of growth over value is now reversing (Chart 5）。As we showed in the chart above, the relationship between China's PPI cycle, commodity strength and the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, China's PPI is likely to move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States will also rise simultaneously. As a result, volatility in U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.FromChart 5We can see that bond market volatility is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-term assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively speaking, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to linearly extrapolate growth to infinite forwards. Therefore, higher volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress the valuation of growth stocks and further weaken their relative strength<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalWe can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market as the economy recovers (Chart 6)。 In fact, the strong performance of the cyclical sector may well have surprised market companies. As we look forward to 2021 (\"Looking forward to 2021: The return of the value king\", 20201120) first predicted that cyclical stocks would return strongly, most people found it hard to believe. But now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become a market consensus, and their strong performance seems to have fully reflected the economic recovery prospects. So, what other investment opportunities do the market have in the next stage of economic recovery?Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have significantly outperformed as the economy recovers<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalWe can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is declining. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from past declines (Chart 7)。 These observations are consistent with the previousChart 5AndChart 6Consistent.In other words, even if the value is returning to the king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is fading. Therefore, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, while cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalGeopolitical risks disturb marketsThe delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses was highlighted by sparkling and fierce rhetoric from both sides during a recent high-level dialogue in Alaska. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the yuan has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every RMB depreciation is accompanied by an intensification of political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (Chart 8)。In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the first signal of RMB depreciation, and this spread is currently narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movement of currencies, bond yields and stock markets is a reflection of weak economic fundamentals in economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset the impact of these adverse factors to some extent.Chart 8: Geopolitical risks are high, and the bond yield difference between China and the United States has narrowed, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM InternationalOverall, market returns have reached historically highs relative to economic growth. YoY changes in the total market capitalization to GDP ratio historically tend to peak around 7% (Chart 9）。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it either corresponded to the bubble periods in 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery stage in 2009. Even after the beginning of August 2009, the year-on-year change in the ratio of total market value to GDP exceeded 7%, and the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the following months, the Shanghai Stock Exchange fluctuated sideways until 2010, when the People's Bank of China began to tighten monetary policy, it began to fall again. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity in the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.Chart 9: Market returns and valuation changes have reached historical highs<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1\">洪灝的中国市场...</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176152843","content_text":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时，市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势，同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下，最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月，当我们发布《2020下半年展望：潜龙欲用》时，我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》中，我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。当下，成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁，并开始快速收敛。短期内，继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此，这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的，而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了，这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义，因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入，中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力，很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产，因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说，不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数，而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是，在复苏的下一阶段，钱应该往哪里投？虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的，但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下，我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说，现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势，但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里，估值仍将进一步修复。尽管如此，地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里，双方锋芒相对，并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时，中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看，人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步，就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明，指数涨幅受限。因此，我们继续认为，机会更多在于价值板块的轮动，而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然，我们也必须强调，中国长期的投资价值，并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《Value Striking Back》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。价值正在王者归来全球经济复苏复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续，并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期，除非新冠疫情反复，加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求，我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动，与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。在我们的巡回之旅中，上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中，预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《2020年下半年展望：潜龙欲用》中，我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《2021年展望：价值王者归来》报告中，我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币，并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然，资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题，也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段，我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(图表1)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳，表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松和信贷扩张的自我约束导致经济降温，那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是，这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为，存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动，这与2013年至2014年，以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段，降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号，反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏，大宗商品强势处于高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际与此同时，美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线，以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (图表2)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中，世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏，而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中所做的预测一致。图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏资料来源：彭博，交银国际中美经济的交错联动中美经济的联系非常紧密，以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来，实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日，我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《中美周期的冲突》，探讨了中美的经济周期，以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响，并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国，以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。中美经济周期的联动将持续，关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为，鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式，中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此，这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此，中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响；而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率，也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上，我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(图表3)图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织；所有关键的经济变量高度相关资料来源：彭博，交银国际价值正在王者归来为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段，我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(图表4)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强，反之亦然。我们注意到，成长股的强势始于2019年，当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年，随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延，成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法，其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟，这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时，展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期，是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家，不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。后疫情时代，经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中，成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说，在经济扩张阶段，成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来，情况确实如此(图表4)，成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法，但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下，“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度资料来源：彭博，交银国际在美国市场，我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是，随着疫苗接种计划的推广，现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转（图表5）。正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系，中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时，美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此，美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。从图表5中我们可以看到，债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产，其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说，在一个稳定的环境中，投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此，债券市场波动率上升，将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值，进一步减弱其相对强势资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步看到，周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (图表6)。事实上，周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《展望2021:价值王者归来》，20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时，大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识，并且，它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么，在经济复苏的下一阶段，市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?图表 6: 随着经济复苏，周期性板块已经大幅跑赢资料来源：彭博，交银国际我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现，尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢，但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时，周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(图表7)。这些观察结果与前文的图表5和图表6一致。也就是说，即使价值正在王者归来，但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而，成长股的强势正在衰减。因此，价值股，无论是周期性的还是非周期性的，都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强，周期和非周期成长板块趋弱资料来源：彭博，交银国际地缘政治风险扰动市场最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中，双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高，从历史上看，人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到，每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧，比如2008年金融危机期间，以及2018年中美贸易战期间(图表8)。此外，中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号，目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时，上证综指往往同步走弱。当然，货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是，目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高，中美债券收益率差收窄，预示人民币贬值压力资料来源：彭博，交银国际总体而言，市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶（图表9）。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时，要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期，要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后，总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%，上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里，上证横盘震荡，直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此，我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动，或者说是市场内部结构的变化，而不是指数的绝对水平。图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位资料来源：彭博，交银国际","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}