To The Moon

There were profit-taking activities last week following a strong third quarter and geopolitical tensions after Iran's missile attack on Israel. The stock market saw a decline throughout most of the week, only to see the major indices closed slightly higher, driven by a rally following the September Employment Situation Report.

The report indicated stronger-than-expected hiring, a decrease in unemployment, and an increase in average hourly earnings. This supported the market's soft landing narrative and reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

This incident increased oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures rising from $68.15 per barrel last Friday to $74.40 per barrel this Friday. This surge boosted the S&P 500 energy sector, which saw a 6.87% increase over the last week on 5-day period.

S&P 500 Financial Top With +1.64%

Financial sector was top of the S&P 500 sectors with 1.64% gains, because of stellar contribution from Discover Financial Services (DFS), Capital One Financial (COF), American Intl Group Inc (AIG) rising more than 5%.

Probability of 50 Basis Drop to Zero

On Friday, the probability of a 50 basis points rate cut at the November FOMC meeting dropped to 0.0%, that was a significant decline from 32.1% on Thursday and 53.3% a week ago, as per the CME FedWatch Tool.

The market was also initially concerned about growth due to the East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers strike, which was resolved by the end of the week.

Note yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 23 basis points to 3.98% and the 2-year yield rising by 37 basis points to 3.93%.

Stocks To Watch

Semiconductor sales surged in August, reaching a record $53.1 billion, marking a 20.6% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by a 43.9% increase in sales to the Americas. Companies like Intel (INTC), $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ ), and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ are likely to benefit from this trend as demand for semiconductors continues to rise across various regions, despite a decline in Europe.

NVDA is showing strong upward trend from the MTF and we are seeing potential bullish MACD crossover from NVDA, with the demand for semiconductors continues to rise across multiple regions, even though there is a decline in Europe, I am expecting semiconductor to do well in this last quarter of 2024.

AMD is also showing similar trend of upside from MTF and the MACD is also poised to create a bullish crossover.

I am holding onto my NVDA and AMD position as there is much potential for a significant upside.

Air Products and Chemicals (APD) saw a 2.7% rise in after-hours trading following news that activist investor Mantle Ridge has acquired a stake worth over $1 billion. Mantle Ridge plans to influence the company's succession planning and strategic direction, viewing APD as undervalued compared to its peers.

$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ reached an all-time high despite warnings of potential Q3 earnings reductions due to lower oil prices and refining margins. The company's performance is buoyed by rising crude prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

There is so much uptrend for XOM as it is trading way above the short-term MA, and with the tensions not showing signs of weakening, we could expect more upside move from XOM.

Technology stocks have underperformed recently, with companies like Super Micro Computer (SMCI), $STMicroelectronics NV(STM)$ ), and Intel (INTC) experiencing significant declines over the past three months. Despite this short-term downturn, the sector remains up 45.7% from a year ago.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is on track for a weekly decline amid geopolitical tensions affecting financial markets. The digital currency's price fell below the $60K threshold, reflecting broader asset volatility.

Summary

With the geopolitical tensions in middle east a concern, we might want to closely monitor the energy stocks and for the semiconductor stocks I would think that they are making a rally build, and this could mean good news for the S&P 500.

There are also some AI stocks worth looking out, like $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think market would make a rally build this week.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.