To The Moon

Investor sentiment weakened slightly across Asia but remained mostly unchanged in Europe and the US, where investors stayed neutral ahead of the Q3 earnings season and the upcoming US elections in less than a month. China was closed for a week-long national holiday and will reopen on Tuesday.

In China, the speculative rally driven by cash injections, margin calls, and share buy-backs is likely to resume in the short-term. However, investors will be closely watching this week’s press conference by China’s top economic planning agency for details on the multiple stimuli announced ten days ago. Simply injecting new money into old problems won’t change China’s negative economic fundamentals. Investors will need to see a political commitment to realigning economic resources and a credible rescue of the banking system to be convinced that China can avoid a lost decade, as it is already four years into one.

After more than three years of seeking answers, US investors have finally gotten clarity on inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Inflation isn’t just declining; it has already declined. Interest rates aren’t just about to be cut; they have already been cut. And it appears no pound of economic flesh was demanded as collateral; last week's jobs report was neither too hot nor too cold, but instead, echoing Goldilocks, "just right."

This virtual economic victory over inflation should give investors a Viking sense of entitlement to whatever risky assets they can plunder. Coupled with the start of the Q3 earnings season, this should encourage them to diversify their investments across more segments of the economy (not just AI), thereby increasing market breadth and depth over the next few weeks. Look for small-cap growth stocks to start making a comeback. This diversification will help investors manage risk more effectively without relying solely on hedging. The only remaining uncertainty affecting sentiment is the outcome of the upcoming US elections (both White House and Congress).

Geopolitics will remain a negative factor for the time being, but generally speaking, it does not affect the long-term direction of equity markets. Instead, geopolitical risk tends to influence asset allocation decisions—how much of my assets should I allocate to risky versus safe investments? Fundamentals will dictate the movements of assets already committed to the equity asset class. In short, investors make asset allocation decisions based on geopolitical uncertainty but make investment decisions based on predictable outcomes with specific timelines, such as quarterly earnings, outcomes of FOMC meetings, macroeconomic data releases, etc.

These indicators are currently pointing in a positive direction, so we can expect investor sentiment to catch up with the markets. Barring any transfer of power mired in political violence in the US after next month’s elections, Q4 should see positive performance across major developed markets.

Potential triggers for sentiment-driven market moves this week[1]

• US: CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment data. FOMC minutes, and the start of the earnings season with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank Of New York Mellon reporting.

• Europe: Minutes from ECB rate setting meeting, German factory orders, industrial production and retail sales data. Eurozone retail sales and industrial production data.

• APAC: Japan’s Tankan report. China markets reopen on Tuesday after a weeklong holiday.

• Global: Any escalation of the Middle East conflict involving a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran (especially one that targets oil infrastructure).

[1] If sentiment is bearish/bullish, a negative/positive surprise on these data releases could trigger an overreaction.

Note: green background = bullish, red background = bearish

Changes to investor sentiment over the past 180 days for the markets we follow:

How to Interpret These Charts:

Top Charts:

The top charts illustrate the ROOF ratio, which represents investor sentiment. This ratio is depicted in green on the left axis, while the cumulative returns of the underlying market are shown in black on the right axis. Key reference lines include:

• A horizontal red line at -0.5 (left axis), marking the threshold between negative sentiment (-0.2 to -0.5) and bearish sentiment (< -0.5).

• A horizontal blue line at +0.5 (left axis), indicating the boundary between positive sentiment (+0.2 to +0.5) and bullish sentiment (> +0.5).

• A horizontal grey line at 0.0 (left axis), around which sentiment is considered neutral (-0.2 to +0.2).

Bottom Charts:

The bottom charts display the levels of risk tolerance (green line) and risk aversion (red line) within the market, representing investors' demand and supply for risk, respectively. Key insights include:

• When risk tolerance (green line) exceeds risk aversion (red line), more investors are willing to buy risk assets than there are investors willing to sell them at the current price. This scenario forces risk-tolerant investors to offer a premium to entice more risk-averse investors to trade, thereby driving markets upward.

• Conversely, when risk aversion (red line) surpasses risk tolerance (green line), the market dynamics reverse.

The net balance between risk tolerance and risk aversion levels is used to compute the ROOF ratio shown in the top charts, reflecting the sentiment of the average investor in the market.

Blue Shaded Zone:

The blue shaded zone between levels 3 and 4 for both indicators signifies a reasonable balance between the supply and demand for risk in the market. When both lines remain within this blue zone, the market is considered stable. However, when both lines move outside this zone, the significant imbalance in demand and supply for risk can lead to overreactions to unexpected news or risk events.