BTC - 3 Stop Losses from 2x 200-MA Rejections
I have several stop losses attempt in this space in the last 2 weeks . BTC via $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ on 26/9 move out of channel and 200-MA, 7/10 intraday stop on $Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF(BLOK)$ and $VanEck Digital Transformation ETF(DAPP)$ (consolidated as a single trade for liquidity) from attempt of follow through from 4/10 undercut and reclaim of 10-MA and BTC re-attempt to push out of 200-MA. On hindsight, the best trade in the space is $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ on 19/9 push out of 50-MA, or you'll be chasing the profits with a skewed risk-reward after. It is the only name that worked.
The reality of trading is that, no matter how much you stack the odds in your favor, you must accept that the near term future is always uncertain. However, when an optimal risk-reward setup appears on the chart, we need to execute trades in a quantifiable manner that has a positive expected value (EV) based on our own trading data.
I’ve increased the opacity of the 200-MA (my favorite resistance MA) in this chart for clarity. There’s nothing actionable here until BTC demonstrates strength by breaking above this resistance and the downtrend line.
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