To The Moon

The number of times Elon Musk said the word "probably" during the We Robot event, only the most delusional Tesla fans can continue to believe that Tesla can ever come good. Neither an exact time frame for FSD nor robotaxi launch even after several postponements shows a clear sign that they're nowhere near making anything happen at all. Even the fanfare behind the Hollywood reveal reeks of the very familiar Nikola One truck reveal.

Let's face the facts:

1. TSLA's FSD is at level 2, while Waymo and Apollo robotaxi are already operating at level 4. Even Mercedes has quietly achieved level 3.

2. Waymo already has a 300-strong fleet of robotaxis currently in operation, Apollo robotaxis has a 300-strong fleet already in operation, while TSLA is still showing shady launches with half-baked announcements without any clear timeline of anything happening.

3. There is so much fluff about Optimus, but Optimus-like robots have already been Quietly and widely used in China's high-end factories since 3-5 years ago. Even if Optimus gets launched for personal use, will they be made cheaper and/or better than China's versions?

Two things are clear:

1. TSLA is clearly nothing but an automobile manufacturer. Matching PE and PB against automobile manufacturers like GM and Ford, that puts TSLA fair value at around $50 per share. Even if you want to match PE and PB against EV manufacturers like BYD (who have far surpassed TSLA in sales and earnings), TSLA's fair value should be around $120 per share.

2. Even if in the unlikely scenario where TSLA does fulfill their robotaxi and Optimus promises, their robotaxi would be at a disadvantage due to the loss of first mover advantage, and their Optimus will lose out to the cost-efficiency of their Chinese competitors

I am short TSLA until the $100 level. You should be too.