$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
Several months ago, I mentioned that TSMC could potentially reach a net profit of 50 billion USD by 2025 (496 billion NTD). This estimate was based on a higher market consensus net profit forecast for 2024 of 35.5 billion USD (a 30% increase from 2023), and then projecting a further 40% increase on top of that. After the release of the third-quarter report, it suddenly feels like this threshold might be a bit low, so I'm slightly adjusting it upwards to 52 billion USD. How does this number sound [Facepalm][Present Flowers]?
The issue is, by 2026, 2nm production will begin and start contributing significantly to revenue. Moreover, the management has indicated that, based on the current level of cooperation with customers, the revenue growth from the 2nm process should be faster than that from the 3nm and 5nm processes. In 2025, there's also the completion of the U.S. factory, which is expected to have a high yield rate.
The current question is whether the growth rate for 2026 should not also be quite rapid. It seems that only a conflict could stop TSMC at this point, but it's said that this risk has been significantly reduced. :）
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