To The Moon

$Nutrien Ltd.(NTR)$

For the third quarter of 2024, Nutrien Ltd. reported a GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78 and an adjusted EPS of $1.60. This was a significant decline from the previous year's EPS of $2.53. The decline was primarily due to lower net selling prices and increased costs. EPS Reported 0.39 Estimate 0.455 the decline

Earning Overview

Third Quarter 2024 Results: Nutrien reported net earnings of $25 million ($0.04 diluted net earnings per share) for the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.0 billion, and adjusted net earnings per share was $0.39. Nine-Month Performance: For the first nine months of 2024, Nutrien generated net earnings of $582 million and adjusted EBITDA of $4.3 billion. Retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.4 billion supported by higher product margins in North America. Segment Performance: Potash adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.6 billion due to lower net selling prices, partially offset by record sales volumes of 11.1 million tonnes. Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.4 billion as lower net selling prices more than offset lower natural gas costs and higher sales volumes. Cost Savings Initiatives: Nutrien accelerated operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives, expecting to achieve approximately $200 million of annual consolidated savings by 2025.

Challenges

Nutrien Ltd. faces several challenges that could impact its performance:

• Market Volatility: The fertilizer market has experienced unprecedented volatility, affecting Nutrien's ability to plan and ramp up production.

• Financial Performance: The company reported a 96% decline in net income for the third quarter of 2024, largely due to restructuring charges and increased claims from its Medicare Advantage coverage.

• Retail Challenges: Nutrien's retail segment has faced challenges, including lower product margins and reduced field activity due to favorable growing conditions in North America.

• Cost-Cutting Initiatives: While Nutrien is implementing cost-saving measures, achieving these savings can be challenging and may impact short-term financial performance.

• Environmental and Sustainability Goals: Nutrien is committed to reducing its environmental impact, but meeting these goals requires significant investment and continuous improvement.

• Regulatory and Legal Issues: The company may face regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges, which can impact its operations and financial performance.

Despite these challenges, Nutrien continues to focus on strategic priorities to strengthen its business across the agricultural value chain.

Business Strategic

Nutrien Ltd. has a strategic plan focused on sustainable growth and value creation. Here are some key points:

• Earnings Growth Target: Nutrien aims to achieve $6.00-$7.00 per share by 2025.

• Business Units: The company targets growth across all three business units, with a particular focus on doubling the profitability of its Nutrition segment to $1.25 billion-$1.5 billion by 2025.

• Shareholder Value: Nutrien plans to return value to shareholders through a consistent dividend payout ratio of 30-40% of earnings and approximately $5 billion in share repurchases.

• Sustainability Goals: Nutrien is committed to reducing Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2035 from a 2019 baseline. The company also aims to enhance sustainable farming practices on more than 13 million acres.

• Cost Savings Initiatives: Nutrien is accelerating operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives, expecting to achieve approximately $200 million of annual consolidated savings by 2025.

• Strategic Priorities: The company is focusing on expanding its primary care offerings, exploring new healthcare models, and investing in new offerings like grocery delivery (Fresh) and food delivery (Eats).

These strategies are part of Nutrien's broader plan to enhance its integrated healthcare model and improve patient outcomes.

Risks & Rewards:

• Market Volatility: The fertilizer market has experienced unprecedented volatility, affecting Nutrien's ability to plan and ramp up production.

• Environmental and Sustainability Goals: While Nutrien is committed to reducing its environmental impact, meeting these goals requires significant investment and continuous improvement.

• Regulatory and Legal Issues: The company may face regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges, which can impact its operations and financial performance.

• Market Leadership: Nutrien is a leading global provider of crop inputs and services, with a strong presence in North America, South America, and Australia.

• Growth Potential: The company's revenue grew by 21% to $26 billion in the last year, and earnings per share (EPS) improved significantly from $0.12 to $0.71.

• Strategic Initiatives: Nutrien is focusing on expanding its primary care offerings, exploring new healthcare models, and investing in new offerings like grocery delivery (Fresh) and food delivery (Eats).

• Valuation: The stock is currently trading at 51.8% below its estimated fair value.

Buy Sentiment

The sentiment towards Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is generally positive among analysts and investors. Here are some key points:

1. Analyst Ratings: Approximately 65% of analysts rate Nutrien as a "Buy", highlighting the positive sentiment stemming from strong operational performance and enhanced global demand for agricultural products.

2. Price Targets: Analysts have set price targets around $68 to $70, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential3.

3. Insider Activity: Recent corporate insider activity shows an increase in insiders buying their shares of NTR, which is a positive sign for investor confidence.

4. Strategic Initiatives: Nutrien's focus on cost savings, volume expansion, and strategic investments in its Retail and Potash segments further supports the positive outlook.

Overall, the combination of strong financial performance, strategic initiatives, and positive analyst ratings suggests a favorable sentiment towards Nutrien Ltd.