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Lakerol
2021-02-26

Mark

Is the "killer" of the US stock bull market coming? Will the Fed sit idly by?

如果通胀只是保持适度水平，对股票的估值不会有多大影响。面对劳动力和原材料等成本的上扬，企业只要能够同时提高他们的产品和服务的价格就可以了。这样，他们的营收增长速度就能够和通胀增长保持同步——事实上，也

Is the "killer" of the US stock bull market coming? Will the Fed sit idly by?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":368796244,"tweetId":"368796244","gmtCreate":1614351723388,"gmtModify":1704771089958,"author":{"id":3549695463456484,"idStr":"3549695463456484","authorId":3549695463456484,"authorIdStr":"3549695463456484","name":"Lakerol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd9f857cf1fc83e6b141752d04dece1f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Mark</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Mark</body></html>","text":"Mark","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368796244","repostId":1120940757,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120940757","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614345664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120940757?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-26 21:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the \"killer\" of the US stock bull market coming? Will the Fed sit idly by?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120940757","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"如果通胀只是保持适度水平，对股票的估值不会有多大影响。面对劳动力和原材料等成本的上扬，企业只要能够同时提高他们的产品和服务的价格就可以了。这样，他们的营收增长速度就能够和通胀增长保持同步——事实上，也","content":"If inflation just stays modest, it won't have much impact on stock valuations. Faced with the rising cost of labor and raw materials, enterprises only need to raise the prices of their products and services at the same time. In this way, their revenue growth rate can keep pace with inflation growth-in fact, it is the change of their product prices that determines the reading of the consumer price index. However, if real interest rates rise sufficiently, the stock market will take a major hit, all else unchanged. The real interest rate will push up the discount rate, which will reduce the real value of the company's future profits.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ef8eb3a8d7b23c2e3c6e7df0b59de7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the trading day on Thursday, February 25, long-term bond yields suddenly soared, scaring U.S. stock market participants into a cold sweat, and also giving them an unprecedented clear understanding-in 2021, the number one key word in the market is interest rate. This is the fundamental reason why U.S. stocks plummeted across the board on Thursday and technology stocks sold off.Suddenly, the bond market's benchmark ten-year Treasury Bond yield soared from 1.389% at Wednesday's close to 1.565% that afternoon, and finally closed at 1.518%, which is the same level as last February before the outbreak. In fact, for quite some time, the trend of rising long-term interest rates has existed, but the market has chosen to ignore it somewhat. However, by Thursday, this sturm and drang finally made everyone lose their breath and began to think that maybe this was just the beginning of a big event. In the end, the Dow closed 1.75% lower that day, the S&P 500 closed 2.45% lower, and the Nasdaq, a major technology stock, lost 3.52%.So far, the rise in long-term interest rates has not caused much substantial trouble. However, if this surge forms a long-term trend, then the high valuations of large American stocks, especially those of large technology stocks, will suffer a serious impact-fatally, the possibility of forming a trend seems to be increasing day by day. \"The key question now is whether we have reached that turning point.\" Research Affiliates monitors the strategies of many mutual funds and ETFs with a total size of $145 billion. Chris Brightman, chief investment officer of the company, analyzed, \"Until recently, interest rates were developing from below the Fed's target to reaching the Fed's target. Now, they have reached their target (based on inflation expectations), but we see that the upward momentum is still strong. If this kinetic energy persists, the interest rate will far exceed the Fed's target.\"Such a development is likely to derail the current bull market.From the end of 2019 to mid-April 2020, when the COVID-19 recession was at its height, the ten-year Treasury Bond yield (what most people call the long-term interest rate) shrank from 1.88% to 0.58%. After that, the yield began to rebound slightly and continuously, but even so, by the end of 2020, it was still at a super low of 0.93%. After the beginning of 2021, the small march of yields continues, and few investors still pay attention to it. It was not until February 25 that the major psychological barrier of 1.5% was broken, and investors woke up like a dream (the analysis later in this article is all based on the premise that the yield is 1.5%). Needless to say, the determination of interest rate is largely based on inflation expectations. At present, the annual growth rate of the consumer price index is 1.4%, but the long-term bond yield is forward-looking-it reflects not the current inflation reality, but the inflation expectation of the next decade.Here's a key data, the break-even inflation rate (EBI), which reflects investors' overall expectations for the consumer price index in the next decade. What worries the market right now is largely the trajectory of the break-even inflation rate. From May last year to now, it has grown from 1.1% to 2.2%, which is a full double.The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond has risen from about 0.60% last summer to 1.5% now. This development should be interpreted from two angles. First, there is the change in the inflation outlook, which is also clearly reflected by the break-even inflation rate. Secondly, it is the change of interest rate adjusted for inflation, the so-called \"real interest rate\". Both of these have a powerful influence on the share price going forward. More than half of the aforementioned 0.9% increase in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield is the progress in the first few weeks of 2021. So, how much role did each of the two factors play in this increase?By far, the most significant factor is the sharp rise in inflation expectations. Since July last year, the break-even inflation rate has soared from 1.6% to 2.2% now. This 0.6% increase accounts for two-thirds of the 0.9% increase in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield. The other 0.3% came from real interest rates (which changed from negative to less negative).In a short period of time in the near future, inflation expectations are high and real interest rates are rising, both of which are bad news for the stock market. At present, although the consumer price index is only 1.4%, this figure will continue to rise in the future, which will cause trouble sooner or later. At a congressional hearing on Wednesday, Fed President Jerome Powell also predicted that inflation would be below the U.S. central bank's 2% target until 2023. However, if the break-even inflation rate of the market is accurate, it is likely that inflationary pressures will appear before then. In other words, if the average inflation rate in the next ten years is 2.2%, and the inflation rate in the first three years is lower than 2%, then the inflation rate in the next seven years will obviously be much higher than 2.2%.It should be pointed out that the current break-even inflation rate of 2.2% is 0.2% higher than that of two months ago, and it seems that it will continue to rise, which the market did not expect even until the end of last year. Of course, since the Great Recession, many economists have continued to issue warnings of high inflation, but the price spiral has never become a reality. However, this does not mean that it will not happen in the future. Once the price rises more than 3%, the stock market will be in danger, and if this rate reaches 4% or even 5%, the stock market will encounter disaster. \"History has long proven that when inflation is high and volatile, the P/E for stocks is always low.\" Breitman explains. \"High inflation is undoubtedly bad news for stock prices.\" Under soaring prices, the Fed will also be forced to rate hike, which will undoubtedly weigh on economic growth, which will undoubtedly weigh on corporate profits.In Brightman's view, the best outcome that can be expected at the moment is that the break-even inflation rate remains at a level of 2.2%. The trouble is that even this 2.2% itself has exceeded the Fed's long-term ideal setting, and what's even worse is that there is a strong upward trend behind this 2.2%. If this trend continues, the inflation rate will continue to be high until an alarm rings over the entire stock market.The second potential threat comes from the rise of real interest rates. In fact, the possibility of this scene becoming a reality is more likely than the soaring inflation rate, and the reason is not complicated-the 10-year real interest rate is still negative. Breitman explained: \"Now, many people think that the valuation of U.S. stocks is not irrational. One of the most important bases is to compare the earnings yield of stocks with the real interest rate.\" Once the real interest rate returns to the level close to historical normal, stock valuations are almost doomed to shrink significantly. Currently, the long-term real interest rate is-0.7%, which is the difference between a yield of 1.5% and the breakeven inflation rate (inflation expectations) of 2.2%. It is not difficult to see that although Treasury Bond is safe, the returns it provides cannot even outperform inflation. It is no wonder that investors are willing to offer super high prices for their competitors-stocks, especially large U.S. stocks.However, more than two years ago, in January 2019, the long-term real interest rate was as high as 1.36% (the ten-year Treasury Bond yield was 3.06%, and the break-even inflation rate was 1.7%), which was 2 percentage points higher than it is now. If the real interest rate returns to that level, it is likely enough to destroy the high P/E of U.S. stocks.If inflation just stays modest, it won't have much impact on stock valuations. Faced with the rising cost of labor and raw materials, enterprises only need to raise the prices of their products and services at the same time. In this way, their revenue growth rate can keep pace with inflation growth-in fact, it is the change in the price of their products that determines the reading of the consumer price index. However, if real interest rates rise sufficiently, the stock market will take a major hit, all else unchanged. The real interest rate will push up the discount rate, which will reduce the real value of the company's future profits.Based on the record closing point of 3,934 points on February 12, the overall P/E of the S&P 500 index has now reached 28.2 based on the profit of the past twelve months under GAAP. If P/E continues to maintain this level, investors can only expect to earn 16% of future profits in the next five years, while the remaining 84% will be looking to the longer future, mostly after 2031. Needless to say, those big tech companies in particular are saddled with super expectations and are therefore more vulnerable to direct hits in the event of changes in real interest rates. At present, from Apple to PayPal, the 10 largest stocks in the U.S. stock market have an overall P/E of 46. This means that nearly 90% of their expected profits will not become a reality until five years or even longer.If these technology giants are excluded, the P/E for the rest of the market is 24, which is still hard to say cheap. Assuming that the sluggish recovery of the economy does not fundamentally change, when the real interest rate rises to 0%-although it is 0.7 percentage points higher than it is now, it is still much lower than 1.36% two years ago-the S&P 500 The index will fall by more than 18% to 3,150 points, close to a bear market. If the real interest rate rises to 0.5%, the index will plummet by 25%.Of course, it is unknown whether the real interest rate will rise to a certain height soon, or its historical long-term level. In the long run, rises in real interest rates tend to follow growth in gross domestic product, and this pattern remained until the second half of 2019-when Trump's tariffs posed a recession threat. The Fed had to take urgent action. The bulls in U.S. stocks claim that a big rebound in real interest rates will not become a reality, because the Fed, as the most critical player, will not sit idly by and watch this happen. \"The Fed can sit back and watch inflation reach 3%, but not make a decision to make the real borrowing rate reach 3%.\" Breitman explained. \"So they will buy longer-term bonds and keep the 10-year Treasury Bond yield stable in the range of 1.5% to 2.0%.\" This operation will keep the real interest rate at about the same level as it is today, still negative, ensuring that high stock yields are not threatened.However, investors must still see that as the United States gradually emerges from the blockade stage and the economy continues to expand, the recent upward trend of real interest rates is likely to continue. In a research report released in early February, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that by 2024, the real interest rate would increase from the current-0.7% to 0%, and continue to rise in the following years. At present, long-term interest rates are already higher than the level when this expectation was released. The key here is that, in fact, as long as the real interest rate rises slightly, it doesn't have to return to the historical normal at all, it is enough to cause big tech stocks and even the S&P 500 index as a whole to suffer a heavy blow-after all, they have risen to such expensive points. Naturally, the more expensive it is, the more fragile it is. Even if the real interest rate finally no longer returns to its former normal, but is anchored to some kind of \"new normal\", it may be difficult for U.S. stocks to survive this calamity unscathed.","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the \"killer\" of the US stock bull market coming? 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Will the Fed sit idly by?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n腾讯美股2021-02-26 21:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIf inflation just stays modest, it won't have much impact on stock valuations. Faced with the rising cost of labor and raw materials, enterprises only need to raise the prices of their products and services at the same time. In this way, their revenue growth rate can keep pace with inflation growth-in fact, it is the change of their product prices that determines the reading of the consumer price index. However, if real interest rates rise sufficiently, the stock market will take a major hit, all else unchanged. The real interest rate will push up the discount rate, which will reduce the real value of the company's future profits.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ef8eb3a8d7b23c2e3c6e7df0b59de7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the trading day on Thursday, February 25, long-term bond yields suddenly soared, scaring U.S. stock market participants into a cold sweat, and also giving them an unprecedented clear understanding-in 2021, the number one key word in the market is interest rate. This is the fundamental reason why U.S. stocks plummeted across the board on Thursday and technology stocks sold off.Suddenly, the bond market's benchmark ten-year Treasury Bond yield soared from 1.389% at Wednesday's close to 1.565% that afternoon, and finally closed at 1.518%, which is the same level as last February before the outbreak. In fact, for quite some time, the trend of rising long-term interest rates has existed, but the market has chosen to ignore it somewhat. However, by Thursday, this sturm and drang finally made everyone lose their breath and began to think that maybe this was just the beginning of a big event. In the end, the Dow closed 1.75% lower that day, the S&P 500 closed 2.45% lower, and the Nasdaq, a major technology stock, lost 3.52%.So far, the rise in long-term interest rates has not caused much substantial trouble. However, if this surge forms a long-term trend, then the high valuations of large American stocks, especially those of large technology stocks, will suffer a serious impact-fatally, the possibility of forming a trend seems to be increasing day by day. \"The key question now is whether we have reached that turning point.\" Research Affiliates monitors the strategies of many mutual funds and ETFs with a total size of $145 billion. Chris Brightman, chief investment officer of the company, analyzed, \"Until recently, interest rates were developing from below the Fed's target to reaching the Fed's target. Now, they have reached their target (based on inflation expectations), but we see that the upward momentum is still strong. If this kinetic energy persists, the interest rate will far exceed the Fed's target.\"Such a development is likely to derail the current bull market.From the end of 2019 to mid-April 2020, when the COVID-19 recession was at its height, the ten-year Treasury Bond yield (what most people call the long-term interest rate) shrank from 1.88% to 0.58%. After that, the yield began to rebound slightly and continuously, but even so, by the end of 2020, it was still at a super low of 0.93%. After the beginning of 2021, the small march of yields continues, and few investors still pay attention to it. It was not until February 25 that the major psychological barrier of 1.5% was broken, and investors woke up like a dream (the analysis later in this article is all based on the premise that the yield is 1.5%). Needless to say, the determination of interest rate is largely based on inflation expectations. At present, the annual growth rate of the consumer price index is 1.4%, but the long-term bond yield is forward-looking-it reflects not the current inflation reality, but the inflation expectation of the next decade.Here's a key data, the break-even inflation rate (EBI), which reflects investors' overall expectations for the consumer price index in the next decade. What worries the market right now is largely the trajectory of the break-even inflation rate. From May last year to now, it has grown from 1.1% to 2.2%, which is a full double.The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond has risen from about 0.60% last summer to 1.5% now. This development should be interpreted from two angles. First, there is the change in the inflation outlook, which is also clearly reflected by the break-even inflation rate. Secondly, it is the change of interest rate adjusted for inflation, the so-called \"real interest rate\". Both of these have a powerful influence on the share price going forward. More than half of the aforementioned 0.9% increase in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield is the progress in the first few weeks of 2021. So, how much role did each of the two factors play in this increase?By far, the most significant factor is the sharp rise in inflation expectations. Since July last year, the break-even inflation rate has soared from 1.6% to 2.2% now. This 0.6% increase accounts for two-thirds of the 0.9% increase in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield. The other 0.3% came from real interest rates (which changed from negative to less negative).In a short period of time in the near future, inflation expectations are high and real interest rates are rising, both of which are bad news for the stock market. At present, although the consumer price index is only 1.4%, this figure will continue to rise in the future, which will cause trouble sooner or later. At a congressional hearing on Wednesday, Fed President Jerome Powell also predicted that inflation would be below the U.S. central bank's 2% target until 2023. However, if the break-even inflation rate of the market is accurate, it is likely that inflationary pressures will appear before then. In other words, if the average inflation rate in the next ten years is 2.2%, and the inflation rate in the first three years is lower than 2%, then the inflation rate in the next seven years will obviously be much higher than 2.2%.It should be pointed out that the current break-even inflation rate of 2.2% is 0.2% higher than that of two months ago, and it seems that it will continue to rise, which the market did not expect even until the end of last year. Of course, since the Great Recession, many economists have continued to issue warnings of high inflation, but the price spiral has never become a reality. However, this does not mean that it will not happen in the future. Once the price rises more than 3%, the stock market will be in danger, and if this rate reaches 4% or even 5%, the stock market will encounter disaster. \"History has long proven that when inflation is high and volatile, the P/E for stocks is always low.\" Breitman explains. \"High inflation is undoubtedly bad news for stock prices.\" Under soaring prices, the Fed will also be forced to rate hike, which will undoubtedly weigh on economic growth, which will undoubtedly weigh on corporate profits.In Brightman's view, the best outcome that can be expected at the moment is that the break-even inflation rate remains at a level of 2.2%. The trouble is that even this 2.2% itself has exceeded the Fed's long-term ideal setting, and what's even worse is that there is a strong upward trend behind this 2.2%. If this trend continues, the inflation rate will continue to be high until an alarm rings over the entire stock market.The second potential threat comes from the rise of real interest rates. In fact, the possibility of this scene becoming a reality is more likely than the soaring inflation rate, and the reason is not complicated-the 10-year real interest rate is still negative. Breitman explained: \"Now, many people think that the valuation of U.S. stocks is not irrational. One of the most important bases is to compare the earnings yield of stocks with the real interest rate.\" Once the real interest rate returns to the level close to historical normal, stock valuations are almost doomed to shrink significantly. Currently, the long-term real interest rate is-0.7%, which is the difference between a yield of 1.5% and the breakeven inflation rate (inflation expectations) of 2.2%. It is not difficult to see that although Treasury Bond is safe, the returns it provides cannot even outperform inflation. It is no wonder that investors are willing to offer super high prices for their competitors-stocks, especially large U.S. stocks.However, more than two years ago, in January 2019, the long-term real interest rate was as high as 1.36% (the ten-year Treasury Bond yield was 3.06%, and the break-even inflation rate was 1.7%), which was 2 percentage points higher than it is now. If the real interest rate returns to that level, it is likely enough to destroy the high P/E of U.S. stocks.If inflation just stays modest, it won't have much impact on stock valuations. Faced with the rising cost of labor and raw materials, enterprises only need to raise the prices of their products and services at the same time. In this way, their revenue growth rate can keep pace with inflation growth-in fact, it is the change in the price of their products that determines the reading of the consumer price index. However, if real interest rates rise sufficiently, the stock market will take a major hit, all else unchanged. The real interest rate will push up the discount rate, which will reduce the real value of the company's future profits.Based on the record closing point of 3,934 points on February 12, the overall P/E of the S&P 500 index has now reached 28.2 based on the profit of the past twelve months under GAAP. If P/E continues to maintain this level, investors can only expect to earn 16% of future profits in the next five years, while the remaining 84% will be looking to the longer future, mostly after 2031. Needless to say, those big tech companies in particular are saddled with super expectations and are therefore more vulnerable to direct hits in the event of changes in real interest rates. At present, from Apple to PayPal, the 10 largest stocks in the U.S. stock market have an overall P/E of 46. This means that nearly 90% of their expected profits will not become a reality until five years or even longer.If these technology giants are excluded, the P/E for the rest of the market is 24, which is still hard to say cheap. Assuming that the sluggish recovery of the economy does not fundamentally change, when the real interest rate rises to 0%-although it is 0.7 percentage points higher than it is now, it is still much lower than 1.36% two years ago-the S&P 500 The index will fall by more than 18% to 3,150 points, close to a bear market. If the real interest rate rises to 0.5%, the index will plummet by 25%.Of course, it is unknown whether the real interest rate will rise to a certain height soon, or its historical long-term level. In the long run, rises in real interest rates tend to follow growth in gross domestic product, and this pattern remained until the second half of 2019-when Trump's tariffs posed a recession threat. The Fed had to take urgent action. The bulls in U.S. stocks claim that a big rebound in real interest rates will not become a reality, because the Fed, as the most critical player, will not sit idly by and watch this happen. \"The Fed can sit back and watch inflation reach 3%, but not make a decision to make the real borrowing rate reach 3%.\" Breitman explained. \"So they will buy longer-term bonds and keep the 10-year Treasury Bond yield stable in the range of 1.5% to 2.0%.\" This operation will keep the real interest rate at about the same level as it is today, still negative, ensuring that high stock yields are not threatened.However, investors must still see that as the United States gradually emerges from the blockade stage and the economy continues to expand, the recent upward trend of real interest rates is likely to continue. In a research report released in early February, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that by 2024, the real interest rate would increase from the current-0.7% to 0%, and continue to rise in the following years. At present, long-term interest rates are already higher than the level when this expectation was released. The key here is that, in fact, as long as the real interest rate rises slightly, it doesn't have to return to the historical normal at all, it is enough to cause big tech stocks and even the S&P 500 index as a whole to suffer a heavy blow-after all, they have risen to such expensive points. Naturally, the more expensive it is, the more fragile it is. Even if the real interest rate finally no longer returns to its former normal, but is anchored to some kind of \"new normal\", it may be difficult for U.S. stocks to survive this calamity unscathed.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/axtiFQyPab4F5mkMHiE6IA\">腾讯美股</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ef8eb3a8d7b23c2e3c6e7df0b59de7","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/axtiFQyPab4F5mkMHiE6IA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120940757","content_text":"如果通胀只是保持适度水平，对股票的估值不会有多大影响。面对劳动力和原材料等成本的上扬，企业只要能够同时提高他们的产品和服务的价格就可以了。这样，他们的营收增长速度就能够和通胀增长保持同步——事实上，也正是他们产品价格的变化决定了消费者价格指数的读数。不过，如果真实利率充分上涨，在其他因素不变的情况下，股市就将受到重大打击。真实利率会推高贴现率，使得企业未来盈利的真实价值缩水。2月25日周四的交易日当中，长期债券收益率突然飙涨，吓出了美股市场参与者们一身冷汗，也让他们获得了前所未有的清楚认知——2021年，市场的头号关键词就是利率。这正是周四美股全线暴跌，科技股票遭到抛售的根本原因。突然之间，债市指标十年期国债收益率就从周三收盘的1.389%猛涨到了当日下午的1.565%，最终收于1.518%，与去年2月，疫情爆发之前的水平相当。其实，相当时间里，长期利率上涨的趋势都已经存在了，只是市场多少选择了予以无视，然而，到了周四，这种狂飙突进终于让大家沉不住气了，开始思考也许这还只是某个大事件的开端。最终，道指当日低收1.75%，标普500指数低收2.45%，科技股重镇纳指更是损失3.52%。迄今为止，长期利率的上扬还没有造成多大的实质性麻烦。可是，如果这种突进形成长期趋势，那么美国大型股票，尤其是那些大型科技股票高企的估值，就将遭受严重的冲击了——要命的是，形成趋势的可能性看上去正在与日俱增。“当下的关键问题是在于，我们是否已经走到了那个转折点。” Research Affiliates监控着总规模1450亿美元的众多共同基金和ETF的策略，该公司首席投资官布莱特曼（Chris Brightman）分析道，“直至不久前，利率还都是从低于联储目标向着达到联储目标的方向发展。现在，它们已经达到了目标（基于通货膨胀预期），可是我们看到，上涨动能依然强劲。如果这种动能持续存在，利率就将远远超过联储的目标。”这样的发展很可能会使得当下的牛市脱轨。从2019年年底到2020年4月中旬，即新冠衰退最严重的时分，十年期国债收益率（一般人所谓的长期利率）从1.88%一路缩水到了0.58%。之后，收益率开始小幅持续反弹，但是即便如此，到了2020年底，也依然处在0.93%的超级低点。2021年开始后，收益率的小步行军还在继续，依然少有投资者留意，直至2月25日，1.5%的重大心理关口被突破，投资者才如梦方醒（本文后面的分析全部基于收益率为1.5%的前提展开）。不必说，利率的确定很大程度上是基于通货膨胀预期的。目前，消费者价格指数的年增速为1.4%，但是，长期债券收益率是带有前瞻性色彩的——它反映的不是当下的通货膨胀现实，而是未来十年的通货膨胀预期。这里有个关键的数据，盈亏平衡通胀率（EBI），体现的是投资者对未来十年消费者价格指数的整体预期。当下让市场感到担心的，很大程度上正是盈亏平衡通胀率的变化轨迹。从去年5月到现在，它已经从1.1%增长到2.2%，足足翻了一番。十年期国债收益率从去年夏季的大约0.60%涨到了现在的1.5%，这一发展应该从两个角度来解读。首先，是通货膨胀前景的变化，盈亏平衡通胀率对此也有明确的体现。其次，则是根据通胀调整后的利率，即所谓“真实利率”的变化。这两者都对未来的股价有着强大的影响力。十年期国债收益率前述0.9%的涨幅，其中一半以上都是2021年的最初几周的进展，那么，这涨幅当中，两种因素到底各自起了多大的作用呢？迄今为止，最重大的因素还是通货膨胀预期的急剧抬升。去年7月以来，盈亏平衡通胀率从1.6%猛涨到现在的2.2%，这0.6%的涨幅在十年期国债收益率0.9%的涨幅当中占据了三分之二。另外的0.3%则是来自真实利率（从负数变成了负得较少的负数）。在近期很短的时间内，通货膨胀预期高企，真实利率上扬，这两者对股市都是利空消息。虽然目前，消费者价格指数只有1.4%，但是这一数字未来还将不断走高，迟早会造成麻烦。在周三的国会听证会上，联储主席鲍威尔还预言说，直至2023年，通胀率都会低于美国央行2%的目标。可是，如果市场的盈亏平衡通胀率准确的话，很可能等不到那时候，通胀压力就会出现了。换言之，如果未来十年的平均通胀率为2.2%，而前三年的通胀率又低于2%，那么后七年当中，通胀率显然要较2.2%高出不少。需要指出的是，目前这2.2%的盈亏平衡通胀率较之两个月前高出了0.2%，而且看上去还会继续走高，而这是市场哪怕到去年年底都不曾预想到的。当然，从大衰退时代开始，就有不少经济学家在持续发出高通胀警告，但是价格的螺旋上涨始终没有成为现实，但是，这并不能说明它未来就一样不会发生。一旦价格上涨速度超过3%，股市就将遭遇危险，而这速度若是达到4%甚至5%，股市遭遇的就是灾难了。“历史早已证明，当通胀率高企且波动十足时，股票的市盈率总是居于很低的水平。”布莱特曼解释道，“高通胀对于股价而言是无可置疑的坏消息。”价格飞涨之下，联储还将被迫加息，对经济增长造成釜底抽薪的影响，而这无疑会打压企业利润。在布莱特曼看来，眼下能够指望的最好结果，也不过是盈亏平衡通胀率保持2.2%的水平。麻烦在于，哪怕就是这2.2%本身，也已经超出了联储的长期理想设定，而更要命的是，在这2.2%的背后还有着强劲的上涨趋势，如果这趋势持续下去，通胀率就会持续高企，直至整个股市上空响彻警报。第二个潜在的威胁则是来自真实利率的上涨。事实上，这一幕成为现实的可能性还要超过通胀率飙升，而其原因并不复杂——十年期真实利率目前依然是一个负数。布莱特曼解释道：“现在，很多人认为美股估值没有丧失理性，最重要的根据之一就是拿股票的盈利收益率与真实利率相比。”一旦真实利率回归到接近历史正常点的水平，股票的估值几乎注定就要大幅度缩水了。目前，长期真实利率是-0.7%，即1.5%的收益率与2.2%的盈亏平衡通胀率（通胀预期）的差值。不难看出，国债虽然安全，但是提供的回报甚至跑不过通胀，也就难怪投资者愿意为其竞争对手——股票，尤其是美国大型股票开出超高的价钱了。不过，两年多前的2019年1月，长期真实利率还曾经有1.36%之多（十年期国债收益率3.06%，盈亏平衡通胀率1.7%），比现在足足高了2个百分点以上。若是真实利率恢复到那个水平，很可能就足够摧垮美股高企的市盈率了。如果通胀只是保持适度水平，对股票的估值不会有多大影响。面对劳动力和原材料等成本的上扬，企业只要能够同时提高他们的产品和服务的价格就可以了。这样，他们的营收增长速度就能够和通胀增长保持同步——事实上，也正是他们产品价格的变化决定了消费者价格指数的读数。不过，如果真实利率充分上涨，在其他因素不变的情况下，股市就将受到重大打击。真实利率会推高贴现率，使得企业未来盈利的真实价值缩水。以2月12日3934点的创纪录收盘点位计算，基于通用会计准则下的近十二个月盈利，标普500指数的整体市盈率目前已经来到了28.2。如果市盈率继续保持这样的水平，投资者在未来五年当中预计将只能获得未来利润的16%，而余下的84%则是要指望更久远的未来，大部分都是2031年之后的事情了。不必说，那些大科技公司尤其背负着超级预期，因此在真实利率发生变化的情况下更容易受到直接的打击。目前，从苹果到PayPal，美股市场上市值最大的10只股票，投资者给予它们的整体市盈率是46。这也就意味着，他们预期当中的利润有近90%要等到五年，乃至更久之后才可能成为现实。如果排除掉这些科技巨头，则市场余下部分的市盈率为24，依然难言低廉。假设经济的迟缓复苏走势不发生根本性的改变，当真实利率上涨至0%——虽然比现在高出0.7个百分点，但是比两年前的1.36%还是要低不少——标普500指数就将下挫18%以上，跌至3150点，距离熊市近在咫尺。如果真实利率涨至0.5%，指数就将暴跌25%。当然，真实利率是否会在不久后回升到某个特定高度，或者其历史长期水平，目前还不得而知。长期角度而言，真实利率的上涨往往是追随着国内生产总值的增长的，而这种规律一直保持到了2019年的下半年——当时，因为特朗普的关税政策造成了衰退威胁，联储不得不采取了紧急行动。美股牛派宣称，真实利率的大举反弹不会成为现实，因为作为最关键角色的联储不会坐视这一幕发生。“联储完全可以坐视通胀率达到3%，但是不做出让真实借贷利率达到3%的决定。”布莱特曼解释道，“因此，他们将会买进期限较长的债券，让十年期国债收益率稳定在1.5%到2.0%的区间。”这种操作会使得真实利率继续保持和当下差不多的水平，依然是负数，确保高企的股票收益率不受威胁。不过，投资者依然必须看到，伴随美国逐渐走出封锁阶段，经济持续扩张，真实利率近期的上涨趋势大概率会延续下去。在2月上旬发布的一份研究报告当中，国会预算办公室曾经预言说，到2024年，真实利率将从目前的-0.7%增至0%，并在之后的年头中持续上扬。当下，长期利率已经高于这一预期发布时的水平。这里的关窍就在于，其实真实利率只要稍稍走高，根本不必回归历史常态，就已经足够让大科技股票，乃至标普500指数整体遭受一轮惨重打击了——毕竟它们已经上涨到如此昂贵的地步，自然越是昂贵就越脆弱。哪怕是真实利率最终不再恢复昔日常态，而是锚定在某种“新常态”上，美股恐怕也很难毫发无损地度过这一劫。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}