A combination of these reasons will drive Tesla's share price significantly above the prior all-time high of $400 per share in the near future.
1. Refreshed Model Y from 1H 2025.
2. Second Megapack factory in Shangai from 1Q 2025.
3. Cybertruck: continued ramp, lower priced trim, international deliveries.
4. Next generation vehicles from H1 2025.
5. Robotaxi from 2026 and Cybercab for purchase 2026.
6. Tesla owner ride hailing launch California/Texas in 2025.
7. Large scale application of inhouse 4680 cell from 2025.
8. Semi factory completion in 1Q 2026.
9. Announcement of additional factory(ies) likely within H1 2025.
10. Tesla's lithium refining plant goes online (2025).
11. Tesla Robovan 2026.
12. Meaningful Optimus deployments end of 2025 and first customer trial programs (similar to Semi test program).
13. Tesla's global vehicle fleet exceeds 10M vehicles in H1 2026 providing unassailable lead in AI training data collection.
14. Strong relationship between Elon/Jensen (Elon was Jensen's first Nvidia AI customer) provides likely advantageous access to Nvidia data center products.
15. Tesla's AI training computer Dojo gen 2 in 2025 followed by Dojo gen 3 in 2026 providing large scale ultra-large token processing capability specific to the autonomy problem.
16. From 2026 wider adoption of Tesla owners contributing vehicles to ride hailing network.
17. Tesla robotaxi fleet exponential growth from 2H 2026.
18. Potential for Tesla to create virtual inferencing cluster with idle Tesla vehicles' onboard inferencing computer.
19. Under friendly U.S. administration, potential for Tesla to achieve more meaningful U.S. government vehicle penetration, currently dominated by GM and Ford.
20. Introduction of wireless charging likely to drive larger EV adoption and accelerated renewal cycle of existing EV owners (together with faster charging batteries).
21. SpaceX aura: under new administration we'll likely see significantly increased launch cadence. This creates a positive signal for Tesla from its deep connection with Elon. There are countless investors often raising the following point: "Tesla CEO lands rockets". This SpaceX "nimbus" bestowed upon Tesla via Elon should not be underestimated.
22. Various 'soft' benefits from Elon's friendship with POTUS: messing with Elon will be viewed in many ways as messing with POTUS. This should significantly reduce Tesla headwinds and material lawfare will be dramatically reduced. Anyone with significant political ambitions will think twice before they pick a fight with Elon/Tesla.
Tesla is primed to emerge as a defining company of the second half of this decade similar to Google in the late 2000s, Apple in the 2010s, and Nvidia in the first half of this decade.
Tesla ad astra @Tesla
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