To The Moon

When it comes to Singaporeans' enthusiasm for the lottery, few countries can compete. According to the 2019 World Lottery Yearbook, Singaporeans top the world in lottery spending, with a whopping $5.41 billion (about SGD 7.1 billion) shelled out every year on lottery tickets. That’s around $935 per person, outpacing even Massachusetts in the United States, where spending is about $798 per capita. But, what if the lottery wasn’t the only game in town for Singaporeans who enjoy a thrill? Enter: options trading—specifically, call options.

A call option, for those who might be new to the concept, gives an investor the right (but not the obligation) to buy a stock at a predetermined price within a specified period. This can be a lucrative way to bet on price movements. While you might think that options trading sounds just as risky as buying a lottery ticket, the two are actually worlds apart in strategy, control, and potential payoff.

Lottery Tickets: The True Long Shot

First, let’s face the facts: buying a lottery ticket is a gamble, pure and simple. There’s no strategy, no data, and no insight that will help you predict the winning numbers in a game of chance. Your chances of winning big are slim, and any "wins" are likely small, far more often than they’re life-changing. For many, playing the lottery is an enjoyable way to daydream about hitting it big, but at its core, it’s a losing proposition for most people.

And while it might be fun, you can see that the odds don’t work in your favor. Lottery games are designed to have a low probability of a big win. Yes, buying a ticket might give you a jolt of excitement, but statistically speaking, you’re handing over hard-earned cash for a minuscule chance at a payout.

Call Options: Luck or Skill?

Now, let’s shift gears and consider call options, particularly “0DTE” options, or options that expire the same day you buy them. This kind of trading is often the favorite of thrill-seekers who want to see immediate results. Like a lottery ticket, a 0DTE call option on a stock you believe is set to rise can feel like a small bet with a potential big payoff. But unlike lottery tickets, options have underlying drivers that traders can analyze and potentially understand.

With options, you’re not entirely at the mercy of chance. By researching a company, following market trends, analyzing technical indicators, and studying factors like earnings reports or industry shifts, you can make an educated guess as to where a stock might be headed. For instance, if you believe a tech stock is about to announce impressive earnings, a call option can be a strategic way to benefit from a price spike. The trick is in knowing when and how much to invest—because call options do involve risk, especially short-term ones.

The Real Difference: Probability and Control

The biggest difference between buying a lottery ticket and buying a call option is your level of control over the outcome. In the lottery, you have zero control; in options trading, you have tools, knowledge, and probabilities you can use to inform your decision.

When you buy a call option, you’re playing a calculated risk. Although options trading can be speculative, it’s not as random as lottery gaming. With call options, your goal is to leverage an increase in the underlying stock’s price. If you’re right, you can make significant returns on a modest initial investment. If you’re wrong, your losses are limited to the price you paid for the option.

That said, options trading isn’t for everyone. It requires a solid understanding of markets, pricing, and strategy. Like any financial instrument, options have their own risks, especially when dealing with near-expiration (0DTE) options, which can be extremely volatile. However, for those who know what they’re doing, options offer a controlled, more informed way to take calculated risks for potentially rewarding gains.

0DTE Options vs. Lottery Tickets: Which is Riskier?

There’s no question that 0DTE options are risky, even for experienced traders. They require a fast reaction to market movements and can expire worthless in the blink of an eye. However, they’re still based on market dynamics—something you can study and understand. In contrast, there’s no way to research or predict the winning lottery numbers.

That’s why, for many market-savvy people, the choice is clear. Options trading—especially when approached with knowledge and discipline—can be a method of structured speculation, whereas the lottery is a roll of the dice.

So, Which is Better for You?

If you enjoy the thrill of risk but want to maintain some control, consider experimenting with options trading. Start by studying how options work and practice with small amounts to test your strategies. Alternatively, if you see the lottery as pure entertainment, go ahead and enjoy it—but remember, that ticket is more about buying a dream than building wealth.

For some Singaporeans, the lottery may still be a favorite pastime, but for those looking for a balance of thrill and opportunity, options trading offers something that lotteries cannot: strategy, insight, and the chance to learn and improve over time. After all, why not take a shot with an educated guess rather than leaving everything up to fate?