Weekly | Is the Bull Market Over?
This week, the Hong Kong stock market had a rough time, with the $HSI(HSI)$ falling for the fourth consecutive day, down by 6.28%. The index has broken out of its sideways range since October.
Domestic News
Last Friday after the market closed, China announced a fiscal stimulus plan, with 6 trillion yuan in new funds for debt reduction. However, there was no mention of any policy support for the real estate or consumption sectors.
On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance rolled out a "big gift" with tax cuts, including reduced deed tax, land value-added tax, and VAT. For example, the deed tax for the purchase of a family's first or second home (under 140 square meters) has been cut to 1%, down from 1-1.5% for regular homes and 3% for non-standard homes.
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, which was a mixed bag. Industrial output grew by 5.3%, below the expected 5.6%. However, retail sales hit 4.8 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, far exceeding the 3.8% forecast.
Overseas Developments
After Trump's victory, he appointed several hawkish advisors on China, sparking concerns over rising US-China tensions and triggering capital outflows.
Meanwhile, the US reported that October's CPI met expectations, and the Fed issued hawkish statements, reducing the chances of a rate cut in December.
Corporate Earnings and Sector Performance
This week, Chinese companies like $TENCENT(00700)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $NTES-S(09999)$ $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ reported their earnings.
Except for NetEase, which saw a strong rally, the rest struggled, with JD.com and Bilibili experiencing sharp declines. This has raised concerns over the earnings outlook for Chinese tech stocks.
Across the board, all sectors posted losses, with real estate leading the declines.
Southbound funds saw a net inflow of HK $35.68 billion this week.
Major Events in Hong Kong Stocks This Week
1. $S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd.(002352)$ passed its hearing, possibly becoming the first "A+H" listed express delivery company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
2.October NEV Sales: 1.43 million units sold, a 49.6% YoY increase.
3.M2 Money Supply: As of October, M2 supply reached 309.71 trillion yuan, up 7.5% YoY.
4. $Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings Group Co.,Ltd.(000987)$ plans to sell up to 1% of its stake in CITIC Securities.
5. $TENCENT(00700)$ Q3 revenue: 167.19 billion yuan, slightly below the market's 167.93 billion yuan estimate.
6.Tax Cuts: The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced various tax incentives, including lower deed and land value-added taxes.
7.Bitcoin Rally: Bitcoin price continued to rise, driving gains in Hong Kong's cryptocurrency stocks.
8. $ZEEKR(ZK)$ spent over 9.3 billion yuan to acquire a 51% stake in Lynk & Co.
9. $JD-SW(09618)$ Q3 revenue: 260.4 billion yuan, a 5.1% YoY increase, slightly exceeding analyst expectations.
10. $NTES-S(09999)$ exceeded earnings expectations, with its stock surging by 12%. Meanwhile, Bilibili dropped over 10% after reporting earnings.
11.October Home Prices: The decline in property prices across 70 major cities narrowed.
12.Industrial Output: In October, industrial output rose 5.3%, below the expected 5.6%.
13.Retail Sales: October retail sales reached 4.5396 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, well above the forecast.
Three Stocks Worth Attention Among Top Trading HK Stocks This Week
Top1: $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ 's stock surged this week, hitting a new yearly high. The company announced that the pre-order for its new Xiaomi SU7 Ultra model had surpassed 3,680 units within 10 minutes at the Guangzhou Auto Show.
Top2: $TENCENT(00700)$ reported Q3 earnings of 167.19 billion yuan, slightly below expectations, and its stock performed poorly.
Top8: Despite exceeding revenue and profit expectations, $JD-SW(09618)$ 's stock plunged due to disappointing logistics and department store performance, as well as rising costs in sales and R&D.
Next Week's Hong Kong Stock Market Events
1.Next Wednesday, The People's Bank of China will announce the November Loan Prime Rate. Investors will be watching closely to see if there is any rate cut.
2.Next Wednesday after market close, NVIDIA will report its earnings. This could significantly impact US stocks and the AI sector.
3.Companies like $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$ are scheduled to release their earnings next week.
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