To The Moon

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In the U.S., electric vehicle (EV) subsidies have become increasingly contentious and may face rollback or restructuring due to political divides and economic pressures. The Biden administration's policies—such as the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs and $4,000 for qualifying used models—were designed to increase EV adoption as part of a broader climate agenda. However, these initiatives have met resistance, particularly from Republican lawmakers who argue the subsidies are costly and poorly executed, pointing to supply chain issues and minimal returns on some investments like EV charging infrastructure​.

As of 2024, electric vehicle (EV) prices in the United States show a wide range, influenced by brand, model, and features. Generally, the average price of a new EV is about $50,798, which is still higher than the national average for new cars across all types but has been decreasing due to increased competition and tax incentives.

Some budget-friendly EV options include the 2024 Nissan Leaf, starting at approximately $28,140, and the Chevrolet Bolt EV, around $26,500. Meanwhile, popular models like the Tesla Model 3 can range from $30,000 to $55,000 for used options, depending on age and condition, and new models start around $40,000. Luxury and larger EVs, such as the Rivian R1S and Ford F-150 Lightning, typically cost between $85,000 to $115,000, reflecting the premium for more powerful and extended-range electric vehicles.

Prices have been influenced by recent policy shifts, including federal EV tax credits of up to $7,500, which have encouraged competitive pricing among automakers, leading to discounts across many models. These shifts are also making used EVs increasingly affordable, with many options now under $40,000

Job Creation in Domestic Manufacturing: EV subsidies support the growth of the domestic EV supply chain, from battery production to vehicle assembly. These subsidies incentivize manufacturers to set up production facilities in the U.S., creating jobs in a range of sectors, including research, development, and assembly.

Support for Technology Innovation: By reducing the upfront costs of EVs, subsidies promote the adoption of new technologies. This increased demand encourages manufacturers to innovate, leading to better battery technology, longer ranges, and improved vehicle performance over time​.

Competitive Advantage in the USA Market: As USA demand for EVs rises, having a robust domestic industry gives the U.S. an economic advantage. Subsidies help American companies compete with foreign automakers, particularly in light of competition from countries like China, where EV production has grown substantially.

EV subsidies help make electric vehicles more affordable, accelerating the transition away from gasoline-powered cars, which are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. This aligns with federal goals to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change, aiming for 50% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030.

Tesla Car Price In USA With Subsidies

In the U.S., the prices for Tesla models in 2024 vary depending on the model and any customizations or upgrades. Here’s a general overview of the base prices:

Model 3: The most affordable Tesla, with a base price of around $40,380. Variants include the Long Range at $49,130 and the Performance at $54,630.

Model Y: Priced around $44,380 for the base model. Other configurations, like the Long Range AWD and Performance AWD, range from $49,630 to $54,130.

Model S: A higher-end option, starting at $74,630. The Model S Plaid, with premium performance, is priced at about $89,630.

Model X: Tesla's luxury SUV starts at $77,990, with the Model X Plaid reaching $92,990. With customizations, these prices can go beyond $113,000.

Cybertruck: Expected to launch in 2025, with prices starting at $60,990 for the base model, going up to $99,990 for the high-performance "Cyberbeast" version.

Some models, like specific versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, are eligible for a federal tax credit of up to $7,500, which helps offset the upfront cost in states where these credits apply. Additional costs, such as delivery and optional charging equipment, should also be factored in.

Impact on Tesla

The removal of federal and state subsidies for Tesla vehicles would have several key impacts, affecting consumer demand, Tesla’s pricing strategies, and the broader electric vehicle (EV) market:

Reduced Affordability and Lower Demand: Without subsidies like the $7,500 federal tax credit, Tesla vehicles would become less affordable, particularly for budget-conscious consumers. This could decrease demand, especially for the more affordable models, like the Model 3 and Model Y, which have driven much of Tesla’s growth. Consumers considering EVs might instead opt for lower-priced gasoline vehicles or wait for further price drops from Tesla or competitors.

Pressure on Tesla’s Pricing and Profit Margins: Tesla may be forced to lower prices to maintain competitiveness, especially as other automakers ramp up production of lower-cost EVs. Cutting prices would directly affect Tesla’s profit margins, particularly on models like the Model 3 and Model Y, which are positioned as mass-market options. In response, Tesla may increase efficiency efforts, potentially relocating production to lower-cost regions or accelerating new battery technologies to reduce costs.

Market Share Competition: Subsidies have helped Tesla maintain a stronghold in the U.S. EV market. Without them, Tesla faces fiercer competition from other manufacturers, such as Ford, GM, and Hyundai, who are also developing competitive EV models. In markets where competitors receive government support (e.g., China or parts of Europe), Tesla could lose ground without the pricing advantage that subsidies provide.

Implications for the Broader EV Adoption: Subsidies are a key tool in accelerating EV adoption. Reducing or removing these subsidies could slow the U.S.’s overall EV adoption rate, delaying climate goals. Tesla’s role as a leader in the EV market has driven wider acceptance of EVs, and reduced sales would likely affect the EV charging infrastructure growth that depends on more widespread EV ownership.

Potential Shift to Higher-End Models: Tesla could focus on premium models like the Model S and Model X, which cater to consumers less dependent on subsidies. This would help protect margins but could reduce Tesla’s impact on mass-market electrification.

In summary, removing subsidies would challenge Tesla’s pricing strategy and competitiveness, affecting demand, margins, and potentially slowing the overall EV adoption in the U.S.

Market Sentiment

Tesla’s November 2024 financial performance has led to a variety of revised stock price targets, reflecting a mix of optimism and caution. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, maintaining a more neutral stance, set its target at $250, while JPMorgan offered a lower, bearish target of $135, citing broader risks and valuation concerns.

Overall, price predictions range widely. Challenges such as global economic pressures, demand uncertainties, and potential policy changes impacting EV subsidies could create volatility in Tesla's stock.

Tesla 2025 outlook

CEO Elon Musk recently adjusted Tesla's growth expectations for 2024, citing possible slower growth until the new model's launch. Some analysts are also cautious about potential regulatory delays and stiffening competition from other automakers, who are ramping up their own EV offerings. Additionally, ongoing price cuts and increased spending in research and production have pressured Tesla’s profit margins recently, which could continue in the short term.