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Grab: A Waking Giant

SummaryGrab recently posted a double-beat on Q3 earnings, sending shares 11% higher.Grab is now FCF positive on a trailing twelve-month basis — the company also reported its second quarter of positive

Grab: A Waking Giant

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Today, Grab has finally woken up from its 2-year hibernation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a68720e63cafa8c0af01fdc0e9bcc09\" alt=\"Ordering food online from home on mobile device app concept\" title=\"Ordering food online from home on mobile device app concept\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/>Ordering food online from home on mobile device app concept<h2 id=\"id_1675437649\">Introduction</h2>Earlier in March this year, I released my deep dive article on Grab (NASDAQ:GRAB), highlighting that Grab stock is significantly undervalued, and it&#39;s only a matter of time before the stock takes off:<blockquote>Despite being a fundamentally stronger company today than it has ever been, Grab stock is still down 80%+ from its all-time highs. Moreover, Grab stock has been trading sideways for almost two years — it&#39;s essentially in hibernation.With business momentum back in full force and with fundamentals improving with each passing quarter, it won&#39;t be long before the sleeping giant awakens.(Riyado Sofian — Grab: A Sleeping Giant)</blockquote>Since that article, Grab stock has surged more than 50%, catalyzed by its recent Q3 results, which saw the stock flying 11% the following day.But despite the recent rally, I believe Grab stock has plenty of upside ahead.Fundamentals are improving, the outlook looks bright, and sentiment is shifting.At $3 a share, Grab was a sleeping giant. Today, it has just woken up from its hibernation. Grab stock is just getting started.<h2 id=\"id_1358488240\">Growth: Durable Ecosystem Expansion</h2>For one, Grab&#39;s ecosystem continues to expand and expand.In Q3, MTU was a record 41.9M, up 16% YoY. On-Demand MTU grew 19% YoY to 37.7M, with Deliveries MTU up 15% YoY and Mobility MTU up 23% YoY in the quarter.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/535dbd869ee057ae498843432bb6f82a\" alt=\"GRAB MTU\" title=\"GRAB MTU\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"/>GRAB MTUAuthor&#39;s AnalysisMTU growth is a leading indicator of future Revenue growth, and considering that Grab&#39;s current MTU is &#34;only about 5% of the Southeast Asia population&#34;, there&#39;s still plenty of upside in terms of user growth.Interestingly, Annual Transacting Users make up about 15% of the population, so Grab already has a lot of people using the platform — the company just needs to increase engagement and order &#34;frequency&#34; to turn them into repeat customers, which should amplify Revenue growth.<blockquote>And I think the big upside for MTUs that we see is frequency because if you look at our annual transacting users. It&#39;s a very large multiple of both our monthly and our daily transacting users. So, a lot of our job is to, yes, bring new users in with affordability but then to ride up the frequency curve with them to bring them from annual into monthly, from monthly into daily. And so, there&#39;s tremendous upside for us.(COO Alex Hungate — Grab FY2024 Q3 Earnings Call)</blockquote>On-Demand GMV was $4.7B in Q3, up 15% YoY, driven by strong MTU growth as well as a 22% increase in On-Demand transactions. On-Demand GMV per MTU remained relatively stable at $124.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ccc120018c877cb903983d8a64537a6\" alt=\"GRAB On-Demand GMV\" title=\"GRAB On-Demand GMV\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"210\"/>GRAB On-Demand GMVAuthor&#39;s AnalysisBreaking it down by segment, Deliveries GMV was nearly $3.0B, up 12% YoY with growth accelerating by 3pp QoQ, driven by higher transaction volumes and Deliveries MTUs.Notably, Saver Deliveries — which offer a lower delivery fee in exchange for a longer delivery time — now account for 32% of Deliveries transactions, up from just 14% a year ago. As management pointed out, Saver has been a key driver of MTU growth and order frequency growth, with Saver users transacting nearly 2x higher than non-Saver users.More importantly, Grab&#39;s push towards affordability through features like Saver has led to considerable cross-selling among its different Deliveries products. For instance, management is seeing a good portion of GrabFood users using GrabMart as well, causing GrabMart to grow 1.7x faster than GrabFood in Q3. In addition, users who use both GrabFood and GrabMart displayed higher loyalty, with 4.9x higher order frequency levels and 2.1x higher retention rates than GrabFood-only users.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c6dad3b5fba7ab3c377d4febcf1bed5\" alt=\"GRAB Deliveries synergies\" title=\"GRAB Deliveries synergies\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/>GRAB Deliveries synergiesGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationOn the Mobility side, GMV grew 20% YoY to nearly $1.7B in Q3. This was driven by higher transaction volumes and Mobility MTUs. The Mobility segment saw strong adoption across its Affordable and High Value offerings.Notably, its High Value Mobility product — which offers users greater convenience, comfort, and reliability — grew GMV by 30% YoY in Q3, mainly due to &#34;improved High Value supply levels&#34;. I believe targeting &#34;less price sensitive users&#34; will be a key driver of growth for the segment, as High Value Mobility rides generate 2.4x higher GMV per ride than standard rides. Moreover, management is confident that High Value driver supply growth and retention will be sustainable in the long term, as drivers can earn 3.3x higher earnings per ride than their standard counterparts.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5df40b2daaf652c034e791f836d444a1\" alt=\"Grab Mobility performance\" title=\"Grab Mobility performance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/>Grab Mobility performanceGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationThat said, GMV and MTU growth was supported by a 21% YoY growth in Total Incentives, to $462M in Q3. Consumer Incentives, in particular, grew 27% YoY to $275M, which was one of the concerns addressed by analysts during the earnings call. Per management, the ramp in Consumer Incentives was used to support new product launches.<blockquote>Changing consumer behavior does require incentives. And similarly, when we launch something like advanced booking to get consumers to use the app in a different way ahead of the time at which they want to make the ride, that also requires changing consumer behavior. So we will use incentives from time to time to generate the momentum behind these new ways of interacting with the app. But those will peak at different times and then also come off. So, those are not long-term.(COO Alex Hungate — Grab FY2024 Q3 Earnings Call)</blockquote>On a positive note, Total Incentives as a % of GMV dropped 30bps QoQ to 9.9% in Q3. Besides, all this incentive spending will pay off in the long run as Grab continues to drive higher platform engagement and user growth.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3de7b3f60fdf726515fea662c22ceb42\" alt=\"Grab Incentives\" title=\"Grab Incentives\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"162\"/>Grab IncentivesAuthor&#39;s AnalysisAnd despite record Total Incentives, Grab delivered record Revenue of $716M, up 17% YoY and 8% QoQ. This beat analyst estimates by $16M.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3f07b6eb3d2be3ed42f7a086fb25670d\" alt=\"Grab Revenue\" title=\"Grab Revenue\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/>Grab RevenueAuthor&#39;s AnalysisThis was driven by record Revenue across each segment. Mobility Revenue came in at $271M, up 17% YoY.Deliveries Revenue was $380M, up 13% YoY. Embedded within the Deliveries segment is Advertising Revenue, which was 1.6% of Deliveries GMV in Q3, up from 1.1% last year. By my calculation, that is about a 60% YoY growth, so the Advertising unit is gaining a lot of traction, which should contribute to high-margin Revenue growth in future quarters.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e84fd08ec19649015260af9c1d3ce36c\" alt=\"Grab Revenue by segment\" title=\"Grab Revenue by segment\" tg-width=\"457\" tg-height=\"210\"/>Grab Revenue by segmentAuthor&#39;s AnalysisI have talked extensively about the On-Demand segments, but let&#39;s switch gear for a moment.Grab&#39;s third and smallest segment, the Financial Services segment, generated $64M of Revenue in Q3, up 34% YoY. In all honesty, I expected a higher growth rate, at least 40% or 50%. Nevertheless, growth is still robust at 34%, driven by GrabFin’s lending business, Grab&#39;s new Digital Banks, and the optimization of payment incentives.<ul style=\"\"><li>Total Loans Disbursed was $567M, up 38% YoY.</li><li>Total Loan Portfolio Outstanding was $498M, up 81% YoY. Grab maintains strong credit performance with 90-day non-performing loans ratio of about 2%.</li><li>Digibank Deposits were $1.1B, up 202% YoY and 50% QoQ. GXBank (Malaysia) had 892K+ deposit customers as of Q3, up from 750K in Q2. GXS Bank (Singapore) had 100K+ deposit customers, up from 72K in Q2. Most notably, Superbank (Indonesia) surpassed 2M users in October, up 100%+ from August — cross-selling was strong as more than 1M users were existing Grab customers.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b54c1e719d404c6ad854b6f9e6340f25\" alt=\"Grab Financial Services\" title=\"Grab Financial Services\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/>Grab Financial ServicesGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationOf important note, the rapid growth of Grab&#39;s Digibank Deposits will enable Grab to fund its loans at a very low cost, as opposed to tapping the debt markets. As a matter of fact, Grab was &#34;able to bring in deposits much faster and with less cost than we had even planned&#34;, and with more loans, deposits, and customers in the ecosystem, Grab will &#34;continue this very positive data flywheel for lending&#34;, delivering robust Revenue growth in the process.What&#39;s more, Grab&#39;s financial products are clearly resonating with its customers. As an example, FlexiLoan has an extremely high NPS of about 65, when most traditional banks &#34;are hovering at around zero&#34;. This kind of satisfaction gap should enable Grab to continue to take market share.And given the underbanked and unbanked majority in Southeast Asia, digital financial services in Southeast Asia are set to explode in the next few years. This fintech opportunity should provide a major tailwind for Grab&#39;s Financial Services segment.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1a54fa93e498b59e5ab2587c040fa3dc\" alt=\"Southeast Asia Financial Services Growth Outlook\" title=\"Southeast Asia Financial Services Growth Outlook\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"/>Southeast Asia Financial Services Growth Outlooke-Conomy SEA 2024 ReportRegardless, management is seeing strong business momentum as we close out 2024. As such, management raised their 2024 Revenue guidance for the first time this year, to $2.78B at the high end, implying an 18% YoY growth. This also translates to Q4 Revenue of $747M at the high end, implying a 14% YoY growth. Management also expects sequential On-Demand GMV growth in Q4.Above all, considering Grab&#39;s strong brand, scale, cost advantages, and network effect moats, I believe Grab is in a prime position to capitalize on Southeast Asia&#39;s digital transformation.Its efforts to grow its user base as early and as much as possible will pay dividends in the future. In addition, driving higher cross-selling activity will strengthen the ecosystem through higher engagement and retention rates. This is a recipe for durable ecosystem expansion — a major prerequisite for sustainable earnings growth.<h2 id=\"id_3889020328\">Profitability: Earnings Machine in the Making</h2>Although Grab remains unprofitable on an operating basis, Operating Income for the quarter improved by $55M YoY to a loss of $(38)M in Q3 as Grab continues to gain efficiency as it scales. Furthermore, this is the lowest Operating Loss recorded in a quarter, so Grab&#39;s profitability is trending in the right direction.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/555f1bf1e7f21417346325875a578eb0\" alt=\"Grab Operating Income\" title=\"Grab Operating Income\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/>Grab Operating IncomeAuthor&#39;s AnalysisTotal Segment Adjusted EBITDA grew to a record high of $178M, representing 3.8% of GMV, which is up 70bps YoY.<ul style=\"\"><li>Deliveries Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $55M, up 60% YoY. Deliveries Margins expanded 50bps YoY and 30bps QoQ, mainly due to higher Advertising Revenue and new products such as Priority Deliveries. For context, Priority Deliveries now account for 8% of Deliveries transactions, up from 5% a year ago — this drove higher GMV growth and margin expansion as they have average order values that are 1.4x higher than Standard Deliveries.</li><li>Mobility Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $149M, up 18% YoY. Mobility Margins dropped 20bps YoY to 8.8%, mainly due to higher Incentives. On a positive note, Mobility Margins expanded 60bps QoQ, driven by operating leverage as well as new products such as High Value rides, which generate 1.2x higher Revenue per ride than standard rides.</li><li>Financial Services Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $(26)M, with losses narrowing 27% YoY, due to higher lending Revenue. Despite the improvement, the segment remains the only unprofitable part of the Grab ecosystem as management continues to invest heavily in the fintech opportunity. Given time to scale, this segment should evolve into the most profitable segment of the entire company.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c25d79c8c04d684e786ba3fd6f643ddb\" alt=\"Grab Adjusted EBITDA\" title=\"Grab Adjusted EBITDA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\"/>Grab Adjusted EBITDAAuthor&#39;s AnalysisRegional Corporate Costs dropped 9% YoY to $88M as Grab continues to drive cost efficiencies. This resulted in Group Adjusted EBITDA of $90M, a record high for the company. Group Adjusted EBITDA as a % of GMV also improved 1.2pp YoY to a record high of 1.9%.Robust Revenue growth and margin expansion led to a Net Income of $15M in Q3, representing Grab&#39;s second quarter of positive Net Income. EPS was $0.01, beating analyst estimates by a penny.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb09fd5a4f5b55729e297ffc4f29eb88\" alt=\"Grab Net Income\" title=\"Grab Net Income\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/>Grab Net IncomeAuthor&#39;s AnalysisManagement also raised their Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $43M at the high end, to $313M. This reflects strong growth momentum and ongoing operating leverage — positive indications that Grab is transitioning from a loss-making business to an earnings machine.<h2 id=\"id_1153759719\">Health: 30% Net Cash</h2>As of Q3, Grab has a Net Cash position of $5.8B, up from $5.3B in the previous quarter, driven by the increase in Customer Deposits from $730M in Q2 to $1.1B in Q3.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cccb6202d983a270a1fa7b62cb0376d3\" alt=\"Grab Net Cash\" title=\"Grab Net Cash\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"/>Grab Net CashGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationHigher cash flows also drove Net Cash growth. In Q3, Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $137M, improving significantly from $(6)M last year. On a TTM basis, Adjusted FCF was $75M, up from $(240)M last year.I believe Grab&#39;s transformation from a cash-burning business to a cash-flow machine will be well received by the markets, especially as cash flows continue to improve over time. This is one of the most important milestones for any company and I think this is going to be a huge driver of share price appreciation for years to come.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/32380c8169f1779022554f12b489364d\" alt=\"Grab Free Cash Flow\" title=\"Grab Free Cash Flow\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/>Grab Free Cash FlowGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationWith high Net Cash and strong cash flows in place, management repurchased nearly 18M shares for a total of $58M in the quarter. That is still not enough to offset share dilution as Shares Outstanding continues to climb higher.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3e6638173a8c04066bb80ea6a4083e0\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/>ChartData by YChartsConsidering that Grab has a Net Cash position of around 30% of its current Market Cap of $18B and that shares remain 70% below its peak, I would want management to step on the gas pedal and meaningfully accelerate the company&#39;s buyback program.That said, Grab has $311M of buyback capacity left — I expect buybacks at an accelerated pace moving forward, as the company is now already FCF positive.<h2 id=\"id_1752293782\">Valuation: Setting Up for a Multi-Year Rally</h2>In terms of valuation, Grab trades at an EV to Revenue multiple of 5.1x. It is certainly not cheap by any means, especially considering that it is trading at a premium to Uber&#39;s (UBER) 3.8x multiple.However, I believe this premium is justified given Grab&#39;s competitive moats, long growth runway in Southeast Asia, and the presence of Grab&#39;s fintech unit, which Uber does not have.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6dd31a39b8f46b31696565ab219c1e44\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/>ChartData by YChartsMy 12-month price target stands at $6.17 for Grab stock, which represents an upside potential of about 30% based on the current price of $4.73.My assumptions are quite conservative:<ul style=\"\"><li>Deliveries GMV growing at an 11% CAGR through 2033, achieving a long-term Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 4.5%.</li><li>Mobility GMV growing at a 13% CAGR through 2033, achieving a long-term Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 9.5%.</li><li>Financial Services Revenue growing at a 26% CAGR through 2033, achieving a long-term Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 35%.</li><li>FY2033 Cash Flow of $2.4B.</li><li>Perpetual Growth Rate of 2.5%.</li><li>Discount Rate of 10%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30f5e36b9916c897d0baff13423ad5a8\" alt=\"Grab DCF Price Target\" title=\"Grab DCF Price Target\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\"/>Grab DCF Price TargetAuthor&#39;s AnalysisLooking at the technicals, Grab&#39;s price action looks pretty bullish, given that the stock just broke past major resistance at $4. In addition, the break of the ascending triangle to the upside is also a bullish reversal pattern that could signal the start of a multi-year rally — as long as fundamentals continue to improve, of course.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74f8c57de09705bef15d5d5abe54aeb8\" alt=\"Grab Technical Analysis\" title=\"Grab Technical Analysis\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"420\"/>Grab Technical AnalysisYCharts and Author&#39;s Drawing<h2 id=\"id_2490447728\">Risks</h2>Competition remains the biggest risk for Grab. There are a lot of players hungry for the Southeast Asian pie, including GoJek, FoodPanda, ShopeeFood, SeaBank, and InDrive. Intense competition could force Grab to ramp up Incentives to maintain its market share, which hinders Revenue and profit growth in the near term.Despite the competition, I believe Grab&#39;s moat is too wide and too difficult to surpass.Its brand is a household name. Its network of consumers, merchants, and drivers is the largest in Southeast Asia. Its product range is incredibly diverse, with cross-selling opportunities that lead to high switching costs. It operates in an industry that has substantial barriers to entry. Above all, its scale is 4x larger than the next largest competitor, offering the company significant cost advantages.For these reasons, I&#39;m confident Grab will sustain a strong leadership position in Southeast Asia, delivering a robust growth and earnings profile for decades to come.<h2 id=\"id_713700268\">Thesis</h2>Grab stock has had a great run lately, up more than 50% in the last few months.Despite the rally, I believe Grab stock still has a lot of upside. Strong growth potential, virtual monopoly status in Southeast Asia, improving margins, FCF-positive, and 30% Net Cash with little debt are some of the reasons why I&#39;m bullish on the stock.Furthermore, Grab&#39;s beat-and-raise third quarter confirms my investment thesis.At $3 a share, Grab was a Sleeping Giant.Now that the stock has broken past the $4 barrier in an aggressive fashion, — and with sentiment turning more bullish than ever — it seems that Grab stock has just woken up from its long slumber.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab: A Waking Giant</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab: A Waking Giant\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-18 07:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738162-grab-a-waking-giant>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryGrab recently posted a double-beat on Q3 earnings, sending shares 11% higher.Grab is now FCF positive on a trailing twelve-month basis — the company also reported its second quarter of positive...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738162-grab-a-waking-giant\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738162-grab-a-waking-giant","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185716016","content_text":"SummaryGrab recently posted a double-beat on Q3 earnings, sending shares 11% higher.Grab is now FCF positive on a trailing twelve-month basis — the company also reported its second quarter of positive net income.Its transition from a cash-burning business to a profitable cash flow machine will be a key driver of share price appreciation.At $3, Grab was a sleeping giant. Today, Grab has finally woken up from its 2-year hibernation.Ordering food online from home on mobile device app conceptIntroductionEarlier in March this year, I released my deep dive article on Grab (NASDAQ:GRAB), highlighting that Grab stock is significantly undervalued, and it's only a matter of time before the stock takes off:Despite being a fundamentally stronger company today than it has ever been, Grab stock is still down 80%+ from its all-time highs. Moreover, Grab stock has been trading sideways for almost two years — it's essentially in hibernation.With business momentum back in full force and with fundamentals improving with each passing quarter, it won't be long before the sleeping giant awakens.(Riyado Sofian — Grab: A Sleeping Giant)Since that article, Grab stock has surged more than 50%, catalyzed by its recent Q3 results, which saw the stock flying 11% the following day.But despite the recent rally, I believe Grab stock has plenty of upside ahead.Fundamentals are improving, the outlook looks bright, and sentiment is shifting.At $3 a share, Grab was a sleeping giant. Today, it has just woken up from its hibernation. Grab stock is just getting started.Growth: Durable Ecosystem ExpansionFor one, Grab's ecosystem continues to expand and expand.In Q3, MTU was a record 41.9M, up 16% YoY. On-Demand MTU grew 19% YoY to 37.7M, with Deliveries MTU up 15% YoY and Mobility MTU up 23% YoY in the quarter.GRAB MTUAuthor's AnalysisMTU growth is a leading indicator of future Revenue growth, and considering that Grab's current MTU is \"only about 5% of the Southeast Asia population\", there's still plenty of upside in terms of user growth.Interestingly, Annual Transacting Users make up about 15% of the population, so Grab already has a lot of people using the platform — the company just needs to increase engagement and order \"frequency\" to turn them into repeat customers, which should amplify Revenue growth.And I think the big upside for MTUs that we see is frequency because if you look at our annual transacting users. It's a very large multiple of both our monthly and our daily transacting users. So, a lot of our job is to, yes, bring new users in with affordability but then to ride up the frequency curve with them to bring them from annual into monthly, from monthly into daily. And so, there's tremendous upside for us.(COO Alex Hungate — Grab FY2024 Q3 Earnings Call)On-Demand GMV was $4.7B in Q3, up 15% YoY, driven by strong MTU growth as well as a 22% increase in On-Demand transactions. On-Demand GMV per MTU remained relatively stable at $124.GRAB On-Demand GMVAuthor's AnalysisBreaking it down by segment, Deliveries GMV was nearly $3.0B, up 12% YoY with growth accelerating by 3pp QoQ, driven by higher transaction volumes and Deliveries MTUs.Notably, Saver Deliveries — which offer a lower delivery fee in exchange for a longer delivery time — now account for 32% of Deliveries transactions, up from just 14% a year ago. As management pointed out, Saver has been a key driver of MTU growth and order frequency growth, with Saver users transacting nearly 2x higher than non-Saver users.More importantly, Grab's push towards affordability through features like Saver has led to considerable cross-selling among its different Deliveries products. For instance, management is seeing a good portion of GrabFood users using GrabMart as well, causing GrabMart to grow 1.7x faster than GrabFood in Q3. In addition, users who use both GrabFood and GrabMart displayed higher loyalty, with 4.9x higher order frequency levels and 2.1x higher retention rates than GrabFood-only users.GRAB Deliveries synergiesGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationOn the Mobility side, GMV grew 20% YoY to nearly $1.7B in Q3. This was driven by higher transaction volumes and Mobility MTUs. The Mobility segment saw strong adoption across its Affordable and High Value offerings.Notably, its High Value Mobility product — which offers users greater convenience, comfort, and reliability — grew GMV by 30% YoY in Q3, mainly due to \"improved High Value supply levels\". I believe targeting \"less price sensitive users\" will be a key driver of growth for the segment, as High Value Mobility rides generate 2.4x higher GMV per ride than standard rides. Moreover, management is confident that High Value driver supply growth and retention will be sustainable in the long term, as drivers can earn 3.3x higher earnings per ride than their standard counterparts.Grab Mobility performanceGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationThat said, GMV and MTU growth was supported by a 21% YoY growth in Total Incentives, to $462M in Q3. Consumer Incentives, in particular, grew 27% YoY to $275M, which was one of the concerns addressed by analysts during the earnings call. Per management, the ramp in Consumer Incentives was used to support new product launches.Changing consumer behavior does require incentives. And similarly, when we launch something like advanced booking to get consumers to use the app in a different way ahead of the time at which they want to make the ride, that also requires changing consumer behavior. So we will use incentives from time to time to generate the momentum behind these new ways of interacting with the app. But those will peak at different times and then also come off. So, those are not long-term.(COO Alex Hungate — Grab FY2024 Q3 Earnings Call)On a positive note, Total Incentives as a % of GMV dropped 30bps QoQ to 9.9% in Q3. Besides, all this incentive spending will pay off in the long run as Grab continues to drive higher platform engagement and user growth.Grab IncentivesAuthor's AnalysisAnd despite record Total Incentives, Grab delivered record Revenue of $716M, up 17% YoY and 8% QoQ. This beat analyst estimates by $16M.Grab RevenueAuthor's AnalysisThis was driven by record Revenue across each segment. Mobility Revenue came in at $271M, up 17% YoY.Deliveries Revenue was $380M, up 13% YoY. Embedded within the Deliveries segment is Advertising Revenue, which was 1.6% of Deliveries GMV in Q3, up from 1.1% last year. By my calculation, that is about a 60% YoY growth, so the Advertising unit is gaining a lot of traction, which should contribute to high-margin Revenue growth in future quarters.Grab Revenue by segmentAuthor's AnalysisI have talked extensively about the On-Demand segments, but let's switch gear for a moment.Grab's third and smallest segment, the Financial Services segment, generated $64M of Revenue in Q3, up 34% YoY. In all honesty, I expected a higher growth rate, at least 40% or 50%. Nevertheless, growth is still robust at 34%, driven by GrabFin’s lending business, Grab's new Digital Banks, and the optimization of payment incentives.Total Loans Disbursed was $567M, up 38% YoY.Total Loan Portfolio Outstanding was $498M, up 81% YoY. Grab maintains strong credit performance with 90-day non-performing loans ratio of about 2%.Digibank Deposits were $1.1B, up 202% YoY and 50% QoQ. GXBank (Malaysia) had 892K+ deposit customers as of Q3, up from 750K in Q2. GXS Bank (Singapore) had 100K+ deposit customers, up from 72K in Q2. Most notably, Superbank (Indonesia) surpassed 2M users in October, up 100%+ from August — cross-selling was strong as more than 1M users were existing Grab customers.Grab Financial ServicesGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationOf important note, the rapid growth of Grab's Digibank Deposits will enable Grab to fund its loans at a very low cost, as opposed to tapping the debt markets. As a matter of fact, Grab was \"able to bring in deposits much faster and with less cost than we had even planned\", and with more loans, deposits, and customers in the ecosystem, Grab will \"continue this very positive data flywheel for lending\", delivering robust Revenue growth in the process.What's more, Grab's financial products are clearly resonating with its customers. As an example, FlexiLoan has an extremely high NPS of about 65, when most traditional banks \"are hovering at around zero\". This kind of satisfaction gap should enable Grab to continue to take market share.And given the underbanked and unbanked majority in Southeast Asia, digital financial services in Southeast Asia are set to explode in the next few years. This fintech opportunity should provide a major tailwind for Grab's Financial Services segment.Southeast Asia Financial Services Growth Outlooke-Conomy SEA 2024 ReportRegardless, management is seeing strong business momentum as we close out 2024. As such, management raised their 2024 Revenue guidance for the first time this year, to $2.78B at the high end, implying an 18% YoY growth. This also translates to Q4 Revenue of $747M at the high end, implying a 14% YoY growth. Management also expects sequential On-Demand GMV growth in Q4.Above all, considering Grab's strong brand, scale, cost advantages, and network effect moats, I believe Grab is in a prime position to capitalize on Southeast Asia's digital transformation.Its efforts to grow its user base as early and as much as possible will pay dividends in the future. In addition, driving higher cross-selling activity will strengthen the ecosystem through higher engagement and retention rates. This is a recipe for durable ecosystem expansion — a major prerequisite for sustainable earnings growth.Profitability: Earnings Machine in the MakingAlthough Grab remains unprofitable on an operating basis, Operating Income for the quarter improved by $55M YoY to a loss of $(38)M in Q3 as Grab continues to gain efficiency as it scales. Furthermore, this is the lowest Operating Loss recorded in a quarter, so Grab's profitability is trending in the right direction.Grab Operating IncomeAuthor's AnalysisTotal Segment Adjusted EBITDA grew to a record high of $178M, representing 3.8% of GMV, which is up 70bps YoY.Deliveries Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $55M, up 60% YoY. Deliveries Margins expanded 50bps YoY and 30bps QoQ, mainly due to higher Advertising Revenue and new products such as Priority Deliveries. For context, Priority Deliveries now account for 8% of Deliveries transactions, up from 5% a year ago — this drove higher GMV growth and margin expansion as they have average order values that are 1.4x higher than Standard Deliveries.Mobility Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $149M, up 18% YoY. Mobility Margins dropped 20bps YoY to 8.8%, mainly due to higher Incentives. On a positive note, Mobility Margins expanded 60bps QoQ, driven by operating leverage as well as new products such as High Value rides, which generate 1.2x higher Revenue per ride than standard rides.Financial Services Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $(26)M, with losses narrowing 27% YoY, due to higher lending Revenue. Despite the improvement, the segment remains the only unprofitable part of the Grab ecosystem as management continues to invest heavily in the fintech opportunity. Given time to scale, this segment should evolve into the most profitable segment of the entire company.Grab Adjusted EBITDAAuthor's AnalysisRegional Corporate Costs dropped 9% YoY to $88M as Grab continues to drive cost efficiencies. This resulted in Group Adjusted EBITDA of $90M, a record high for the company. Group Adjusted EBITDA as a % of GMV also improved 1.2pp YoY to a record high of 1.9%.Robust Revenue growth and margin expansion led to a Net Income of $15M in Q3, representing Grab's second quarter of positive Net Income. EPS was $0.01, beating analyst estimates by a penny.Grab Net IncomeAuthor's AnalysisManagement also raised their Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $43M at the high end, to $313M. This reflects strong growth momentum and ongoing operating leverage — positive indications that Grab is transitioning from a loss-making business to an earnings machine.Health: 30% Net CashAs of Q3, Grab has a Net Cash position of $5.8B, up from $5.3B in the previous quarter, driven by the increase in Customer Deposits from $730M in Q2 to $1.1B in Q3.Grab Net CashGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationHigher cash flows also drove Net Cash growth. In Q3, Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $137M, improving significantly from $(6)M last year. On a TTM basis, Adjusted FCF was $75M, up from $(240)M last year.I believe Grab's transformation from a cash-burning business to a cash-flow machine will be well received by the markets, especially as cash flows continue to improve over time. This is one of the most important milestones for any company and I think this is going to be a huge driver of share price appreciation for years to come.Grab Free Cash FlowGrab FY2024 Q3 Investor PresentationWith high Net Cash and strong cash flows in place, management repurchased nearly 18M shares for a total of $58M in the quarter. That is still not enough to offset share dilution as Shares Outstanding continues to climb higher.ChartData by YChartsConsidering that Grab has a Net Cash position of around 30% of its current Market Cap of $18B and that shares remain 70% below its peak, I would want management to step on the gas pedal and meaningfully accelerate the company's buyback program.That said, Grab has $311M of buyback capacity left — I expect buybacks at an accelerated pace moving forward, as the company is now already FCF positive.Valuation: Setting Up for a Multi-Year RallyIn terms of valuation, Grab trades at an EV to Revenue multiple of 5.1x. It is certainly not cheap by any means, especially considering that it is trading at a premium to Uber's (UBER) 3.8x multiple.However, I believe this premium is justified given Grab's competitive moats, long growth runway in Southeast Asia, and the presence of Grab's fintech unit, which Uber does not have.ChartData by YChartsMy 12-month price target stands at $6.17 for Grab stock, which represents an upside potential of about 30% based on the current price of $4.73.My assumptions are quite conservative:Deliveries GMV growing at an 11% CAGR through 2033, achieving a long-term Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 4.5%.Mobility GMV growing at a 13% CAGR through 2033, achieving a long-term Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 9.5%.Financial Services Revenue growing at a 26% CAGR through 2033, achieving a long-term Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 35%.FY2033 Cash Flow of $2.4B.Perpetual Growth Rate of 2.5%.Discount Rate of 10%.Grab DCF Price TargetAuthor's AnalysisLooking at the technicals, Grab's price action looks pretty bullish, given that the stock just broke past major resistance at $4. In addition, the break of the ascending triangle to the upside is also a bullish reversal pattern that could signal the start of a multi-year rally — as long as fundamentals continue to improve, of course.Grab Technical AnalysisYCharts and Author's DrawingRisksCompetition remains the biggest risk for Grab. There are a lot of players hungry for the Southeast Asian pie, including GoJek, FoodPanda, ShopeeFood, SeaBank, and InDrive. Intense competition could force Grab to ramp up Incentives to maintain its market share, which hinders Revenue and profit growth in the near term.Despite the competition, I believe Grab's moat is too wide and too difficult to surpass.Its brand is a household name. Its network of consumers, merchants, and drivers is the largest in Southeast Asia. Its product range is incredibly diverse, with cross-selling opportunities that lead to high switching costs. It operates in an industry that has substantial barriers to entry. Above all, its scale is 4x larger than the next largest competitor, offering the company significant cost advantages.For these reasons, I'm confident Grab will sustain a strong leadership position in Southeast Asia, delivering a robust growth and earnings profile for decades to come.ThesisGrab stock has had a great run lately, up more than 50% in the last few months.Despite the rally, I believe Grab stock still has a lot of upside. Strong growth potential, virtual monopoly status in Southeast Asia, improving margins, FCF-positive, and 30% Net Cash with little debt are some of the reasons why I'm bullish on the stock.Furthermore, Grab's beat-and-raise third quarter confirms my investment thesis.At $3 a share, Grab was a Sleeping Giant.Now that the stock has broken past the $4 barrier in an aggressive fashion, — and with sentiment turning more bullish than ever — it seems that Grab stock has just woken up from its long slumber.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}