U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims Rise To 3-Year High - Time To Worry?
- The ongoing rise in continuing claims looks worrisome, but initial claims are telling a considerably more upbeat story.
- The positive spin via initial claims is probably the superior metric for assessing the near-term outlook for payrolls and, by extension, the economy. Continuing claims carry less weight for looking forward.
- The gap between the diverging trends in continuing vs. initial claims will probably close soon, in favor of the relatively upbeat claims data.
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The ongoing rise in continuing claims looks worrisome, but initial claims are telling a considerably more upbeat story. Which one’s the better measure? The positive spin via initial claims is probably the superior metric for assessing the near-term
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