Is The Relatively Weak Trend For U.S. Private Payrolls A Warning?
- Hiring and firing by companies, in short, is the critical factor from a business cycle perspective vs. the minor role for government payrolls.
- The private/total spread has been negative for 19 straight months.
- If the spread doesn’t soon rebound into positive terrain, it could be an early warning sign for 2025.
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If you could only track one economic indicator to monitor the economy, the trend in payrolls would be a solid choice. Think of it as the fuel that powers consumer spending engine, which accounts for nearly 70% of economic activity. The good news
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