$CHINA EDU GROUP(00839)$ Latest announcement on Inside Information with regards to write down incurred on intangible related to University in Australia, Sichuan up to the tune of ~RMB 1.5b (rough figure) resulted in the lowest earnings in history of the group.
Management says that it amounts to a hit of ~5% on group's total asset. That's to say Book will reduce by 5% in value. Current pricing trades @ P/B : 0.6; meaning to say this ratio will be adjusted upwards to 0.63; imo, well-discounted taken into account the info provided by the announcement. Why do I say this?
A quick glance into the recently published annual report reveals some of the key assumptions in estimating the value of the cash generating units (CGU); Discount rate were set at min. of ~12% to 18% depending on business; Growth rate were set at +2% annually for all three CGU'S; these aren't demanding assumption & would be considered conservative in hindsight compared to GDP growth rates of China;
Main reason for devaluation of CGU's were attributed to change in local gov policy (caps on tuition fee), Australia immigration policy & poorer enrollment outlook in one certain location; Due to the nature of the business, management would've gotten a fair forward guide on revenue base on student enrollment.
Therefore, I'd argue that at current valuation, it's been well discounted base on information recently announced.
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