$CHINA EDU GROUP(00839)$ Latest announcement on Inside Information with regards to write down incurred on intangible related to University in Australia, Sichuan up to the tune of ~RMB 1.5b (rough figure) resulted in the lowest earnings in history of the group.

Management says that it amounts to a hit of ~5% on group's total asset. That's to say Book will reduce by 5% in value. Current pricing trades @  P/B : 0.6; meaning to say this ratio will be adjusted upwards to 0.63; imo, well-discounted taken into account the info provided by the announcement. Why do I say this?

A quick glance into the recently published annual report reveals some of the key assumptions in estimating the value of the cash generating units (CGU); Discount rate were set at min. of ~12% to 18% depending on business; Growth rate were set at +2% annually for all three CGU'S; these aren't demanding assumption & would be considered conservative in hindsight compared to GDP growth rates of China; 

Main reason for devaluation of CGU's were attributed to change in local gov policy (caps on tuition fee), Australia immigration policy & poorer enrollment outlook in one certain location; Due to the nature of the business, management would've gotten a fair forward guide on revenue base on student enrollment. 

Therefore, I'd argue that at current valuation, it's been well discounted base on information recently announced.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment4

  • Top
  • Latest
  • Max87
    ·11-28
    The only hope is for the group to stop massive expenditure mandated by the increase in # of students enrollment; With the latest increase moderating to ~+5%, & local gov placing caps on students fees, it would not be in Management's interest to continue massive capital expenditure exercise.
    Reply
    Report
  • Max87
    ·11-28
    Revenue continues to track previous years double digit increase student enrollment; With # of Gao Kao students increasing, I believe it'll continue to flow over to private universities groups as China Edu Group which manage some of the more reputed schools in China. Xi continues to show willingness to increase student quota in schools sensing poor economic outlook.
    Reply
    Report
  • gogoooCn
    ·11-28
    Reply
    Report
  • Max87
    ·11-28
    Last time I checked, it's not interesting yet;
    Reply
    Report