Weekly: Seasonally strong December may push the S&P 500 to enter the history book

The Dow and S&P 500 rose to new heights on Friday amid a shortened trading day that capped a strong month for the stock market.
November trading largely centered on the post-election rally seen on the back of President-elect Donald Trump's victory. The Dow and S&P 500 notched their best month of 2024.
The Dow added 7.5% in November while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each advanced more than 5% and 6%, respectively. The small cap-focused Russell 2000 surged 10.8% in November as investors saw the group benefiting from Trump’s potential tax cuts. The S&P 500 was up more than 26% in 2024, on track for its best year since 2021.

All S&P 500 sectors closed the week in green, despite the energy sector. The consumer cyclical sector gained by 3%, as AMZN、ULTA、LVS、RL leading the gain. Moreover, LLY、ABBV、CVS and PFE pushed the healthcare sector to rally.
For November, the consumer cyclical and financial sectors are the winners with more than 8% gains. TSLA became the best performer during the period. JPM、GS、WFS and more banks to register new heights.

（Source: Finviz.com）

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares (BRK.A) and Class B shares (BRK.B) achieved record prices. The most expensive shares of BRK.A reached $724,313 apiece. The Omaha-based juggernaut has rallied more than 33% this year, outperforming the S&P 500′s 26% return. The strong performance came even as the company cut back on buybacks drastically.
Walmart (WMT) on Black Friday were trading at all-time-high levels back to when it first began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in August 1972. WMT gained nearly 13% in November.
Global chip equipment stocks rallied on Friday, as the Biden administration is considering further sanctions on sales of semiconductor equipment and artificial intelligence memory chips to China that could be less strict than earlier proposals. However, the semiconductor ETF-SMH lost 1% for the week, while NVDA fell nearly 6%.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) jumped 26% in November, as investors saw the group benefiting from Trump’s potential tax cuts.
Dell Technologies (DELL) plunged on earnings, the company missed revenue and lowered guidance. Executives cited a "robust" AI server opportunity, but consumer PCs remain a challenge.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) jumped 17.28% last week as the space satellite services provider announced two successful launches and finalized a multimillion-dollar grant from the government.

Hong Kong stocks rallied after two straight weeks of decline, as investors looked for fresh catalysts to reverse a downtrend. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 1% to 19,366.96 at the close.
However, Hong Kong stocks posted a second consecutive monthly loss as investors grappled with their disappointment in China’s fiscal stimulus plans and the prospect of fresh tariffs from the Trump administration. The benchmark dropped 4.4% for the month following a 3.9% drop in October.
“We expect that more headwinds on growth could come from the external environment with tariffs, a weaker currency and geopolitical concerns,” said Laura Wang, a strategist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “Market sentiment may sour further if earnings forecasts continued to be reduced, the yuan depreciates and US-China tensions escalate." she said.

Singapore stocks slid last week, with the STI down 0.2%, as investors continue to digest the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, the benchmark rose more than 5% in November.
Meanwhile, Singapore’s core inflation in October slowed to the weakest pace since December 2021, as healthcare and recreation price gains eased. The core measure, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, rose 2.1% last month from a year earlier. Headline inflation came in at 1.4%, the slowest pace since March 2021, the data showed.
Singapore’s factory output rose 1.2% year on year in October, a far more modest increase than in the previous month’s surprise jump.
Real incomes in Singapore made a rebound in 2024 as inflation eased, recovering from the previous year’s decline. For full-time workers, the nominal median gross monthly income including Central Provident Fund (CPF) contributions rose to S$5,500 this year, up 5.8 per cent from 2023.

The Australian sharemarket reset record highs on Thursday. ASX 200 was up 0.51 % last week to 8436.20. The benchmark index rose 3.38% in November.
Australia's top central banker said on Thursday that core inflation was too high to allow for rate cuts in the near term, all but ruling out relief for borrowers at its next policy meeting in December.
Australia's CPI stayed at a three-year low in October as government rebates drove electricity and rent prices down, though core inflation picked up in a sign of lingering cost pressure elsewhere.

The final trading month of 2024 kicks off with a jobs report, and promises one final push to the finish line to turn this year’s monster rally into one for the history books.
The market may be expensive, and sentiment frothy, but cheerful investors point to a strong macroeconomic backdrop and rosy earnings growth forecasts to justify the prices. With the S&P 500 already up 26% on the year, a typical December gain could place 2024 among the best years in history. The S&P 500 has had just six years with gains above 27% over the past 50 years, per FactSet.
December is the strongest month for the S&P 500 in any given year and, what’s more, promises the lowest volatility of any month on the calendar, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
November jobs report will release on Friday. Economists’ consensus forecast calls for a gain of 190,000 nonfarm payrolls in November after a hurricane-impacted October total of just 12,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Jerome Powell, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai, Sam Altman and more will be at the DealBook Summit on Wednesday.

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