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Fed Can Be Cautious in Considering Further Adjustments: Powell Press Conference

Economic activity has continued to expand at a "solid pace," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday after the central bank cut its benchmark rate by another 25 basis points, and the Federa

Fed Can Be Cautious in Considering Further Adjustments: Powell Press Conference

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With that economic strength, the Fed can be more cautious as it assesses further adjustments.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;Based on the updated dot plot and inflation projections, the Fed is positioned for a January pause,&#34; said Yimin Xu, on behalf of Seeking Alpha analyst Cestrian Capital Research. &#34;The main question is whether March will also see a pause, since inflation readings may spike early in the year, creating more uncertainty around monetary policy.&#34; (Added at 3:14 PM ET)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Event concludes at 3:23 PM ET.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3:22 PM:</strong> &#34;We&#39;re not going to settle&#34; for allowing inflation to stay at above 2%. He won&#39;t rule out the potential for rate hike in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3:17 PM ET:</strong> Headline inflation can be affected by energy and food prices, which is why FOMC&#39;s median projection for headline inflation is for an increase next year, while its median expectation for core inflation is declining.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3:16 PM ET:</strong> &#34;One thing the Fed policymakers know is that its rate is 100 basis points closer to neutral&#34; — the point at which the rate neither drives nor hinders economic growth — Powell said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3:10 PM ET:</strong> The downsides to the labor market appear to be diminishing. &#34;It&#39;s still cooling, but in an orderly way,&#34; Powell said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3:08 PM ET</strong>: The hiring rate is low, reflecting a softening in the labor market,&#34; but the layoff rate is low and unemployment is still relatively low. Wage growth is at a healthy and more sustainable level.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3:06 PM ET:</strong> The Fed is &#34;not allowed to hold bitcoin (BTC-USD)&#34;, and it&#39;s not looking for a law change that would allow that, Powell said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3:02 PM ET:</strong> &#34;We are in a new phase in the process of rate adjustments,&#34; as the policymakers now need to see more progress in inflation. The Fed still thinks the interest rate is &#34;meaningfully restrictive,&#34; he added.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The CME FedWatch tool now puts a 20.9% probability on no rate cuts in 2025, up from 9.8% on Tuesday.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2:59 PM ET:</strong> The story is the economy is still unwinding from the pandemic shock that occurred in 2020 and 2021, he said. It may take a year or two for inflation to get back to 2%.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2:56 PM ET: &#34;</strong>We&#39;ve made a great deal of progress&#34; with inflation &#34;in the 2s.&#34; Housing services inflation has come down quite steadily. &#34;The overall story on why inflation should come down in still intact,&#34; Powell said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2:51 PM ET:</strong> Core inflation dropping to 2.5% next year &#34;would be significant progress,&#34; he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2:49 PM ET: </strong>Whether potential tariffs will drive inflation &#34;is not a question that&#39;s in front of us right now.&#34; The Fed policymakers will wait until they see the fiscal policy before they respond to them. It&#39;s &#34;very premature&#34; to come to any conclusions, he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2:46 PM ET:</strong> Inflation &#34;has underperformed&#34; vs. expectations, and is a big reason for the slower expected pace of rate cuts. The central bankers will be looking for further progress in inflation before cutting again, Powell said. &#34;We&#39;ve had a year-end projection for inflation, and it&#39;s kind of fallen apart as we&#39;ve approached the end of the year.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2:44 PM ET:</strong> &#34;We&#39;re closer to the neutral rate&#34; and that&#39;s another reason to be cautious, he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As he stated at October&#39;s press conference, he said the FOMC thinks that both the economy and policy are &#34;in a good place.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Update at 2:42 PM ET:</strong> The statement signals that the Fed is &#34;at or near the place to close, or pause cuts,&#34; Powell said. The slower pace of expected cuts reflects the still-elevated inflation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The decision today &#34;was a closer call, but it&#39;s the right call,&#34; Powell said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;We don&#39;t think we need further cooling in the labor market to get the inflation rate down to 2%,&#34; he added. The Fed still sees inflation &#34;broadly on track,&#34; though inflation has been moving &#34;sideways&#34; as it laps strong disinflation that occurred late last year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Overall, improving supply conditions have helped support the economy.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Labor market conditions remain solid, but has eased from its overheated state in 2019. &#34;The labor market is not as source of significant inflation pressure,&#34; he added.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Longer-term inflation expectations appear to be &#34;well-anchored,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Can Be Cautious in Considering Further Adjustments: Powell Press Conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Can Be Cautious in Considering Further Adjustments: Powell Press Conference\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-19 04:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4387836-fed-can-be-cautious-in-considering-further-adjustments-powell-press-conference><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Economic activity has continued to expand at a \"solid pace,\" Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday after the central bank cut its benchmark rate by another 25 basis points, and the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4387836-fed-can-be-cautious-in-considering-further-adjustments-powell-press-conference\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4387836-fed-can-be-cautious-in-considering-further-adjustments-powell-press-conference","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115092992","content_text":"Economic activity has continued to expand at a \"solid pace,\" Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday after the central bank cut its benchmark rate by another 25 basis points, and the Federal Open Market Committee indicated they expect fewer rate cuts in 2025 than they did three months ago.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell\"The economy is strong overall\" and has made progress in the Fed's full employment and price stability goals, he said. With that economic strength, the Fed can be more cautious as it assesses further adjustments.\"Based on the updated dot plot and inflation projections, the Fed is positioned for a January pause,\" said Yimin Xu, on behalf of Seeking Alpha analyst Cestrian Capital Research. \"The main question is whether March will also see a pause, since inflation readings may spike early in the year, creating more uncertainty around monetary policy.\" (Added at 3:14 PM ET)Event concludes at 3:23 PM ET.3:22 PM: \"We're not going to settle\" for allowing inflation to stay at above 2%. He won't rule out the potential for rate hike in 2025.3:17 PM ET: Headline inflation can be affected by energy and food prices, which is why FOMC's median projection for headline inflation is for an increase next year, while its median expectation for core inflation is declining.3:16 PM ET: \"One thing the Fed policymakers know is that its rate is 100 basis points closer to neutral\" — the point at which the rate neither drives nor hinders economic growth — Powell said.3:10 PM ET: The downsides to the labor market appear to be diminishing. \"It's still cooling, but in an orderly way,\" Powell said.3:08 PM ET: The hiring rate is low, reflecting a softening in the labor market,\" but the layoff rate is low and unemployment is still relatively low. Wage growth is at a healthy and more sustainable level.3:06 PM ET: The Fed is \"not allowed to hold bitcoin (BTC-USD)\", and it's not looking for a law change that would allow that, Powell said.3:02 PM ET: \"We are in a new phase in the process of rate adjustments,\" as the policymakers now need to see more progress in inflation. The Fed still thinks the interest rate is \"meaningfully restrictive,\" he added.The CME FedWatch tool now puts a 20.9% probability on no rate cuts in 2025, up from 9.8% on Tuesday.2:59 PM ET: The story is the economy is still unwinding from the pandemic shock that occurred in 2020 and 2021, he said. It may take a year or two for inflation to get back to 2%.2:56 PM ET: \"We've made a great deal of progress\" with inflation \"in the 2s.\" Housing services inflation has come down quite steadily. \"The overall story on why inflation should come down in still intact,\" Powell said.2:51 PM ET: Core inflation dropping to 2.5% next year \"would be significant progress,\" he said.2:49 PM ET: Whether potential tariffs will drive inflation \"is not a question that's in front of us right now.\" The Fed policymakers will wait until they see the fiscal policy before they respond to them. It's \"very premature\" to come to any conclusions, he said.2:46 PM ET: Inflation \"has underperformed\" vs. expectations, and is a big reason for the slower expected pace of rate cuts. The central bankers will be looking for further progress in inflation before cutting again, Powell said. \"We've had a year-end projection for inflation, and it's kind of fallen apart as we've approached the end of the year.\"2:44 PM ET: \"We're closer to the neutral rate\" and that's another reason to be cautious, he said.As he stated at October's press conference, he said the FOMC thinks that both the economy and policy are \"in a good place.\"Update at 2:42 PM ET: The statement signals that the Fed is \"at or near the place to close, or pause cuts,\" Powell said. The slower pace of expected cuts reflects the still-elevated inflation.The decision today \"was a closer call, but it's the right call,\" Powell said.\"We don't think we need further cooling in the labor market to get the inflation rate down to 2%,\" he added. The Fed still sees inflation \"broadly on track,\" though inflation has been moving \"sideways\" as it laps strong disinflation that occurred late last year.Overall, improving supply conditions have helped support the economy.Labor market conditions remain solid, but has eased from its overheated state in 2019. \"The labor market is not as source of significant inflation pressure,\" he added.Longer-term inflation expectations appear to be \"well-anchored,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}