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2021-02-09

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The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?

After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first t

The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?

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When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114166601","media":"Barrons","summary":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first t","content":"<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.</p><p>The central concern is that&nbsp;once Treasury yields climb high enough&nbsp;investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries&nbsp;extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark<b>,</b>Wall Street consensus is hard to find:&nbsp;Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.</p><p>Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.</p><p>Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.</p><p>But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.</p><p>Almost 70% of S&amp;P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.</p><p>That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.</p><p>Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&amp;P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.</p><p>Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.</p><p>More important, a 3% return from the S&amp;P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.</p><p>In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.</p><p>There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:&nbsp; Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.</p><p>Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.</p><p>Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.</p><p>So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. 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When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-09 18:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114166601","content_text":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.The central concern is that once Treasury yields climb high enough investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark,Wall Street consensus is hard to find: Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.Almost 70% of S&P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.More important, a 3% return from the S&P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:  Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}